Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281118 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 618 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper disturbance brings showers and possibly a thunderstorm today. Strong cold front passes Wednesday. Reinforcing trough/front Thursday night. High pressure for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 6 AM Tuesday... Adjusted pops faster in the west this morning per latest radar trends. Do not think thunder will make it this far east early this morning, as deeper instability is lacking. Main batch of showers and possibly thunder still to come across later in the day. As of 3 AM Tuesday... Within a broad and vigorous southwest flow aloft, models key in on an upper level disturbance moving over a warm and increasingly moist atmosphere today. This brings a widespread band of rain showers today, mainly from later this morning through this afternoon. Deep instability is still lacking with this feature, so have only a slight chance for thunder. Nevertheless, rainfall amounts from a quarter of an inch up to as much as three quarters of an inch in spots can be expected. Temperatures will be much above normal in the low level southerly flow, despite the clouds and showers. For tonight, expect a break in the rain before another upper disturbance comes our way later tonight. This will initiate more showers, and a better chance of thunderstorms as the atmosphere further destabilizes. However, the chance for any severe thunderstorms will mainly come just after this period as better parameters will then be in place. With a southerly flow and clouds, temperatures will be on the mild side tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Will mostly likely have a squall line in progress pushing towards the Ohio Valley at the break point from the near term forecast. Have multiple ingredients in place for a severe setup. Very dynamic situation with strong shear profiles pushing 90kts 0-6km values with falling heights aloft from the approaching trough. Strong surface front in place from a deepening center of low pressure. Still have 10C dewpoints to work with at 850mb and near 60F dewpoints at the surface which may increase slightly with some pooling ahead of the front. SPC has the risk increased to enhanced across the bulk of the CWA. Damaging wind threat exists, and cannot discount hail given the colder air aloft. Also have potential issues with excessive rainfall as given the PWAT values well over an inch. Behind the front, will turn sharply colder as the moisture exits. Lingering precipitation will transition to rain/snow mix and all snow in the higher elevations. Have a storm total snow grid in place, but only minor accumulation well under an inch are expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Reinforcing cold front/upper trough combo passes Thursday night, but will only keep the cold air in place for so long. Some light snow at night will accompany the system. Rebounds to above normal values expected Saturday, increasing through the Monday time frame with strong 850mb ridging returning with high pressure settling in at the surface. && .AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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12Z Tuesday thru 12Z Wednesday... As of 6 AM Tuesday... For Today, a wet upper disturbance will move eastward across the area. Clouds will lower and thicken rapidly from west to east with widespread showers accompanying this disturbance. Deep instability is marginal for thunder, so included just a slight chance today with the showers. Look for VFR ceilings becoming MVFR ceilings and VSBY in the precip, but brief IFR cannot be ruled out. South winds generally 5 to 10 KTS. The showers will exit the mountains this evening with the disturbance. MVFR conditions are expected to continue behind the departing system with the lingering low level moisture, but again IFR cannot be ruled out and will have to be monitored. South winds generally 3 to 7 KTS increasing after 06Z to 10 to 15 KTS with higher gusts. Look for rain showers to also increase after 06Z from west to east with another disturbance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There may be more IFR this afternoon in the rain, but especially this upcoming night with lingering low level moisture. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/28/17 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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