Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280605 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 205 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH LATE THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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200 AM UPDATE... ADJUSTED SCHC PATTERN OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO THE N WILL STAY N BUT WORRIED A SHOWER OR TWO COULD POP UP S AND E OF THAT CONVECTION...WITHIN THE FCST AREA...OVERNIGHT. 1030 PM UPDATE... LARGELY ECHO FREE ACROSS THE CWA...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY BAIL OUT ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A LINGERING POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY MAX AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE OH RIVER AROUND 00-06Z. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH 12Z...AS ONLY THE GFS IS BRINGING SOME QPF ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE BRINGS QPF LATER ON THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY. FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED THE GFS QPF KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS EXPECTING LOWS CLOSE TO DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A WEAK FRONT WILL FIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. WITH UPPER SUPPORT OVER THE REGION THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BETTER COVERAGE IN CONVECTION. THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE POSSIBLY FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY FLEXES ITS MUSCLE BACK INTO THE REGION. WARM AND MUGGY THE BEST DESCRIPTOR FOR TEMPS/DEWPTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST OFF THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...OWING TO DEEP MOIST S FLOW...WITH VARIOUS UPPER AIR IMPULSES TO FURTHER AID IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERALLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY LATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD ALSO STAY TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE AREAS OF VALLEY MIST MAY FORM OVERNIGHT BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY. MVFR STRATOCU / MORNING CU IS LIKELY TO FORM AND THEN MIX OUT BY LATE THU MORNING. THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAY FORM AS EARLY AS MIDDAY. ANY CONVECTION AROUND THIS EVENING MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING GIVEN VERY HIGH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THE FRONT STILL CLOSE BY TO THE N. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM FORECAST OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY HIT TERMINALS THU AFTERNOON OR NT. .AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... IFR IN MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...TRM

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