Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191858 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 258 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM RECENT DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY IN FUTURE SHIFTS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THEN BECOMING CALM. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...SL

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