Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261845 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 245 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak east to west frontal boundary continues across northern portions of area. Next system late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1030 AM update. Adjusted placement of max pops to focus along front in the north early this afternoon...then shift southward later this afternoon into central and southern areas prior to significant decrease with loss of heating this evening. Previous discussion...A weak quasi stationary front remains just northwest of the area as seen in the sfc obs maps. The HRRR and RAP models bring PCPN during the afternoon hours when the heat is at its peak. Diurnal heating will combined with abundant moisture to produce showers or storms during the afternoon hours. A tongue of moisture, evident in precipitable water around 2 inches continues in place. This can support isolated heavy downpours through tonight. Went with the National blend of models for temperatures through the period. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Active weather to start the short term period...with warm and humid conditions to persist. Stalled frontal boundary across northern zones will lift north of the area during the day Thursday as upper shortwave trough approaches from the west. Strong llj developing across the region...will aid in moisture transport...with pw values rising to over 2 inches Thursday. Wave of low pressure moving north through the region Thursday and Thursday night...will help to enhance precipitation...with showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours expected. In addition...could see strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday...with the potential for stronger winds aloft to be brought down to the surface. Will place the mention of possible water headlines for the Thursday/Thursday night time frame. Still difficult to pinpoint any area of heaviest precipitation/greatest threat...so will highlight entire cwa in the hwo for now. Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for later in the day Friday and Friday night as an upper shortwave trough crosses the area.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens across the region.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday... Nearly stationary east to west weak front across far northern portions of area will continue thru period. Thru 02z...Outside of convection...SCT-BKN 2000-3000 feet agl becoming mainly VFR ceilings 3500-5000 feet by 20z. Increasing showers and tstms mainly across southeast Ohio and northern WV this afternoon...vicinity of the nearly stationary weak front. SCT showers and tstms central and south. After 02Z...most convection decreases with loss of heating. Generally SCT-BKN 4000-8000 feet AGL with widely SCT showers mainly in the north. 08z-12z MVFR river valley fog...except lower in the north if earlier rains fall. After 13z Wednesday...4000-6000 feet AGL with widely SCT showers and tstms developing by 18z. Winds this period nearly calm by night...light and variable by day. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly affect any TAF site Tuesday afternoon. Timing of Fog formation and intensity may vary tonight depending on where it rains. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the previous afternoon or night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JMV

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