Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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440 FXUS61 KRLX 162008 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 308 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure tonight. Weak system with chance of showers Sunday afternoon/evening. Cold fronts cross Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1220 PM Saturday... A high pressure system will provide dry weather and light winds tonight. However, some cirrus in advance of the next system will be moving into the region. Think that enough good radiation conditions will exist to go on the cooler side of MOS guidance lows. Flattening wave aloft moves over the area Sunday afternoon and evening. While some showers are expected, most of the moisture will be used trying to wet the lower levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, precipitation amounts will remain on the lighter side. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 250 PM Saturday... Dampening s/w trof quickly exits to the east Sunday evening. However, an abundance of low level moisture will linger along with some weak isentropic lift in WAA. This was handled with light rain and drizzle in the wx grids. There is some concern for perhaps some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain in the higher elevations, however confidence is not particularly high at this point for any mention in the HWO. All of this will try to linger for the first half of Monday along and north of the I64 corridor as WAA strengthens to our southwest. This may setup a significant temp gradient across the area with low stratus/drizzle across the north and some sunshine across extreme southern counties. I have undercut guidance for highs Monday quite a bit across the north as a result. The WAA eventually wins out by Monday evening.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 255 PM Saturday... A southern system will scoot by mainly to the south Wednesday and Thursday, though enough of a spread for some low pops across the mountains. Attention then turns to the weekend where there remains considerable spread on the synoptic pattern evolution across the eastern CONUS, as a battle looms between building warmth across the southern states and advancing cold air from Canada.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1220 PM Saturday... Despite increasing clouds tonight into Sunday morning, VFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR in light rain and stratus at times Sunday night through Monday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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