Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 261808 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 208 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AREA REMAINS IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
H500 SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD OVER A HUMID AND WARM AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR A STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT UNDER LIMITED INSTABILITY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 02Z. PERIODS OF SUNSHINE AFFECTED THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM OUR CWA. SO...REMOVE MENTIONING OF SEVERE THREAT IN HWO. MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE MOVE...LIMITING ANY HIGH WATER TO THE ACUTE POOR DRAINAGE VARIETY. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. TWEAKED NUMBERS AT SOME PLACES WITH MINOR CHANGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ACTIVE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND THIS ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL EXIST. WILL HOWEVER MENTION THE MARGINAL IN THE HWO AS AN ISOLATED STORM GOING SEVERE IN THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OR WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO RELIEF IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOLLOWED ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING AND DRYING NORTH AND WEST. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP POPS COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST SO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. THUS...SUMMER LIKE BROAD BRUSH OF CHC POPS CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PROVIDING NEEDED HEATING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 21Z...AND A SECOND BATCH AROUND 02Z...TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EASTERN SITES...PKB...HTS...AND CRW THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET...THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR EASTERN SITES BUT WINING DOWN PER LOOSING DIURNAL HEATING. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO CODED VCTS AND VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM...WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING/MOVING UP FROM THE S THIS AFTERNOON...PLUS TIMING NEW ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WSW LATE THIS EVENING. SPC MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FURTHER WEST...AWAY FROM OUR AREA INDICATING THAT THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS HAS DIMINISHED. HAVE CIGS MAINLY 4-5 KFT AND PREVAILING VFR VSBY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THUNDER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE BENEATH ANY THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW BECOMES S TO SE BY TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM FORECAST. THERE MAY BE IFR IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN INDUCED FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. .AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...IFR MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WED AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.