Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 062034 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 334 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure crosses tonight, bringing freezing rain to very high terrain, and rain elsewhere. High pressure Wednesday. A cold front crosses early Thursday. Much colder into the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1000 AM Tuesday... Forecasts remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 630 AM Tuesday... Forecast on track. As of 420 AM Tuesday... Miller B type low pressure system crosses today, its primary center filling as it moves up the Ohio River Valley, giving way to a second center that tracks across the Carolinas to the east coast. Widespread rain moving into the area as a result early this morning will make for a wet day today. Models continue to paint a half inch to an inch of rain on average, with the highest amounts in the mountains, and west of the Ohio River, with the typical southeast downslope rain shadow resulting in the lower amounts over the WV lowlands. Cold air beneath frontal inversion will result in freezing rain across the very high terrain given the cold air damming wedge developing early this morning. Outside the radiation inversion northeast of the area, the air upstream (to the northeast) is not quite cold enough to support ice. However, upslope flow will result in sufficient cooling high along the eastern slopes for freezing rain across the very highest terrain. With the wedge developing this morning and then only gradually eroding later this afternoon, the 7 PM end time of the freezing rain advisory looks good, although the lower terrain within the advisory area may not experience much icing at all. The cold front moves through later tonight as the system pushes east, with the coastal low pressure center having taken over. This will finally take out the cold air damming wedge. However, colder air moving back in behind the system, coupled with the loss of all but low level moisture, may result in freezing rain or freezing drizzle, again across the very high terrain, early Wednesday morning. A blend of the NAM, MET and a short term consensus appeared to have the best handle on temperatures, a bit higher in the advisory area than the previous forecast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 315 PM Tuesday... Main feature in the short term will the arrival of modified arctic air. The models continue to waffle on the extent of development of a mid level wave Thursday, with all showing little to no development such that low pops currently may be able to be lowered even more. Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps lowering into the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic contributions should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow showers and flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture depth. This should continue for Friday as well though any lakes contribution should stay north of the area. Only expecting some minor accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or there in the lowlands. Elected to beef up the sky grid from what the Blender provided as well as lowering highs from the Blender. Think most if not all places will stay below freezing for highs. A gusty WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but clouds should linger.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 320 PM Tuesday... Increasingly milder air will filter into the area this weekend, but still will be rather chilly on Saturday with sunshine finally returning to the area. Milder air will work into the area in earnest Sunday and Monday ahead of the next system with showers and perhaps a mix at onset working in Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 100 AM Monday... A low pressure system crossing the area this period will bring MVFR to IFR conditions in rain today. Freezing rain today will occur along the higher eastern slopes of the mountians, and icing is possible aloft in that area below an inversion, which will be 3-4 kft MSL. As the rain exits this evening, visibilities will improve, but low MVFR to IFR stratus will only gradually lift. Surface flow will be southeast and a bit gusty today, mainly across the ridges and some hilltops. Surface flow will shift to west as the system exits tonight. Moderate south to southeast flow aloft today will become moderate west to northwest as the system exits tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated MVFR to IFR conditions may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H M H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L M M M H M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M H L L M M L L L H L M PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H M M L AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night, mainly in the mountains,
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ523>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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