Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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038 FXUS61 KRLX 180845 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 345 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak disturbance with light precipitation through tonight. A dry cold fronts crosses late Tuesday. A stronger, wetter cold front crosses Saturday. Low pressure Christmas Eve and Day.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 155 AM Monday... Overall, a rather dreary day on tap, although it will be warmer. Near term period looks to remain socked in with clouds, and areas of drizzle, with saturated lower levels of the atmosphere trapped beneath inversion. Still the possibility of very light rain, particularly across northern zones later today, as a weak shortwave crosses the region in zonal flow. Have maintained slight chance to chance pops, mainly across the north and central zones, with patchy drizzle included area wide. Hard to exactly tell when -dz will end, but expect it to continue through at least dawn Tuesday, along with low ceilings. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Monday... Low level moisture beneath a shallow inversion erodes from the southeast Tuesday, as high pressure noses in from the south, and low level flow backs to the southwest, parallel to the mountains. A subtle northern stream upper level short wave trough drives an equally subtle cold front through Tuesday night. With very little moisture, this will be followed by a null upslope event overnight Tuesday night. High pressure builds north of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, as a southern stream short wave trough and surface low pass just south of the area. There is the chance for rain on the northern edge of this system, across southern portions of the forecast area. Air cold enough to support snow is not likely to intersect with this southern stream system. The high to the north, and low to the south, exit first thing Thursday morning, and then southerly low level flow develops in their wake Thursday, ahead of a new cold front approaching from the west Thursday night. Central guidance temperatures looked reasonable. The cold air behind the Tuesday night cold front only results in near normal highs Wednesday, and near normal lows Wednesday night. Temperatures moderate ahead of the cold front Thursday and Thursday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 345 AM Monday... The forecast leading up to the Christmas holiday is mild, and wet. A cold front crossing Friday night into Saturday could bring a copious rainfall, given good inflow out of the gulf on 3 isobars at 4 mb increments. The cold front pushes east of the area Saturday night, for a possible dry interlude pushing in from the west. The upper level northern stream short wave trough driving the weekend cold front through lifts out, in favor of another digging into the western states, all rotating about a large central Canadian upper low. This western short wave will either push east, or remains held back by an upper level high over the western Atlantic building back into Florida , with a flatter wave being ejected instead. Either way, a surface wave will form in response, but its track will be farther west if only a flat wave is ejected, keeping the upper level flow over the area backed. This has precipitation timing and type implications for Christmas Eve and Day. Run to run changes have lead to high uncertainty, but latest guidance is leaning milder and wet, with the colder air behind the weekend front either retreating, or not even making good inroads into the area in the first place. Central guidance temperatures reflect very mild weather ahead of the cold front Friday and Saturday, with readings struggling to even get down to normal behind the front on Christmas Eve. The chance for snow with the Christmas Eve/Day system is limited to interior southeast Ohio and the higher WV mountains this package, and is low even in those places.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 135 AM Monday... Widespread MVFR conditions, with areas of drizzle expected for much of the TAF period. Guidance is still indicating the possibility of widespread IFR/LIFR stratus developing, particularly after 09-12Z. For now, expecting at least local IFR conditions, with most areas remaining low MVFR, and only continued a mention of IFR at TAF sites KBKW and KCKB for now. This may need to be updated to include more widespread IFR. Light southwesterly surface winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May get lower visibilities in fog and/or drizzle tonight. May have more widespread IFR ceilings Monday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/18/17 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L M M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M H M L M H H M M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY L H H M M M M M M L L L AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR in stratus possibly lingering into Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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