Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260643 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passes today with showers and storms expected. Another system Monday night into Tuesday and again late in the work week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 225 AM Sunday... A cold front moves through the area today bringing showers and thunderstorms. While buoyancy is on the weak side of the spectrum, wind shear is favorable for rotating updrafts in the storms that do form which lends to some potential for severe storms this afternoon. The thin CAPE profile and saturated column will keep storms low topped, but rainfall should be quite efficient as PW`s are in the 90th percentile for this time of year in the 1.25" range. 1 hour FFG values support 1.25" while 3 hour FFG values are 1.5 - 2.5" which probably will not be exceeded today though over north central WV a FFG minimum exists and has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from the WPC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 314 PM Friday... Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as a low pressure system moves north of the area. Models showing decent low level shear Sunday evening, although CAPE is marginal. Could not rule out a couple of severe storms in the western counties. The region stays in the warm sector as this system moves off to the northeast, allowing for mild weather to continue on Monday. Another system will provide showers and possibly thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 314 PM Friday... Behind a weak cold front, slightly cooler but mild temperatures can be expected for mid week. Models then show another system for the end of the week. There are large differences in the timing and placement of this system between the various models, leading to a low confidence forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 235 AM Sunday... Generally VFR today despite a cold front moving through. Could see some IFR form near/under thunderstorms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need TEMPO IFR in storms today.. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/26/17 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR fog and low ceilings possible Sunday night as the rain ends. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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Radar site KRLX has a faulty component that is leading to higher reflectivities than what should be observed. A part is on order and will be replaced as soon as it arrives. Keep this in mind today since there is some potential for severe weather.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW/30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JW/26 EQUIPMENT...JW

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