Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 252331 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 631 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CLEARING THIS CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND HOLDS ON INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY...AND MAYBE ANOTHER ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 630 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... A TRANQUIL PERIOD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SHIFTS EASTWARD....BUT RIDGES NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. UNTIL THEN...MODELS HAVE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SPRINKLES/MOUNTAIN FLURRIES ERODING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS OUT AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THUS...LOOK FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING IN MOST OF THE LOW LANDS...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS CLEARING BY AROUND 2 AM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WE CAN EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 50S...AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES ANOTHER CHILLY NT FRI NT...BEFORE EXITING ON SAT. HAVE SIMILAR TIMING AS PREVIOUS FCST FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SAT EVENING...AS A SW TO NE ORIENTED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THE FRONT IS DRIVEN BY A LONG...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH WELL BEHIND IT. THAT TROUGH MINORS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND BEYOND...AS A LARGE TROUGH DROPPING SWD ALONG THE CONUS W COAST BACKS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SAT NT...BUT A FLAT WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTING TO CATCH UP TO IT...IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE RAIN GOING FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED MIX FOR LOWS FRI NT AND HIGHS SAT...AND THEN FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES SAT NT AND SUN AS THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH. ONLY HAVE TEMPERATURES GETTING AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S NW CORNER OF FCST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY SUNDAY...SO THIS IS A RAIN ONLY EVENT THROUGH THAT TIME. VIA THE RFC...HAVE FROM TWO DIMES QPF IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS...AND CLOSE TO A HALF AN INCH IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLING OUT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...AND HAVE POPS COMING TO AND END ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT ON GFS AND ECMWF...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS THE COLD AIR SQUEEZES OUT WHAT REMAINS OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE A GOOD DEAL LOWER ON THE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS HIGH NOSES IN...SO LOWERED POPS VS. PREVIOUS FORECAST. BLENDED IN WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... STILL MVFR CIGS REMAINING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 06Z...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...SL

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