Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232316 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 716 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT FRONT AROUND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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715 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPS THIS EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY WILL CREATE. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD. FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH. TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARMING ALOFT...ALONG WITH A PSEUDO DRY WARM FRONT...SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA WHERE THE PROGRAM STILL IS ONGOING. WARMING ON MONDAY APPEARS FASTER THAN WE PICTURED 24 HOURS AGO. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY ARE PROJECTED BY 12Z GFS AND ECMWF. A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 850 MBS ON TUESDAY HAS GFS AND ECMWF DROPPING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 12C TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUM READINGS TUESDAY NEARING AS WARM. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF THE PSEUDO WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. DO NOT EXPECT RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MEET. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND AND THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WILL INCLUDE AN ELEVATED/ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD OF WILD/BRUSH FIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WAS ALSO SLOWER INCREASING CLOUD COVER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THAN OUR MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC. GLAD WE DELAYED THE POPS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE NEXT FRONT. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME RIGHT REAR 250 MB JET SUPPORT. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS...MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE POPS LOWERING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER 500 MB TROF STILL TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO WILL HOLD POPS ALONG OUR VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...BUT HAVE THE WESTERN SLOPES DRY ON THURSDAY. WAVE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE RAIN THURSDAY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...OVER ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER DOWNWARD SWING ON OUR AUTUMN TEMPERATURE SEESAW RIDE. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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CLOUDS QUICKLY DISSIPATING ACROSS LOWLANDS...BUT STILL HANGING IN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT HTS....PKB AND CRW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DO HAVE SOME CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD PLAY SOME HAVOC WITH FOG...HOWEVER THINK THE CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG. IF THE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATE SOONER THAN FORECAST...COULD ALSO END UP WITH SOME FOG FORMING THERE. FOR FRIDAY...WITH HAVE CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. COULD GET A CU HERE OR THERE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR CATEGORICALLY IMPORTANT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...MZ

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