Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161949 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 249 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm frontal boundary lifts north today and tonight for warmer temperatures and rain showers. Cold front Tuesday night. Another system for the end of this week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 110 PM Monday... No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast. Weak boundary moving north across the region has generated some light shower activity at times today. Expect this to continue through afternoon hours, and have left a slight chance of pops in through evening for much of the CWA. Shower activity will increase across the region tonight and on Tuesday, as a low pressure system across the central U.S. slides northeast towards the Great Lakes region. As it does so, WAA will result in a nearly steady or even non diurnal trend overnight. Series of shortwaves will move through the region overnight and on Tuesday, helping to enhance the precipitation at times, before a cold front sweeps through Tuesday afternoon/evening. Could see a rumble of thunder on Tuesday, mainly across western zones as it does so. Overall, expecting a general one third to one half an inch of QPF, although locally heavier amounts cant be ruled out. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM Monday... Cold front crosses Tuesday night, with showers diminishing in its wake. Any thunderstorms ahead of the cold front should diminish prior to the start of the period, as driving upper level short wave trough lifts out into the northeastern U.S., actually outrunning the surface cold front. A second upper level short wave trough crosses Wednesday, with the shower chance finally diminishing altogether late Wednesday, as that short wave moves out. As weak high pressure of Pacific origin builds in Wednesday, low level moisture trapped below inversion spells lots of clouds. These clouds should break up overnight Wednesday night. High pressure crosses Thursday morning as upper level ridging builds. That ridge crosses Thursday evening, allowing the next upper level short wave trough, and surface low pressure and warm front to approach from the southwest. This increases the likelihood for rain from the southwest toward dawn Friday. No significant departures from guidance on temperatures, which remain above normal given upper level flow off the Pacific. This precludes all wintry precipitation types from the forecast.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 245 PM Monday... Upper level short wave trough pushes through Friday. The small feature crosses a ridge position along the east coast, while long wave troughing resides over the western half of the U.S. This lifts a surface warm front through the area friday, with rain likely ahead of it. The weekend will start mild and dry beneath deep layer south to southwest flow. Models concur on a major piece of the long weave energy out west moves east, bringing unsettled weather into the area late in the weekend and early next week. No significant departures from guidance on temperatures, which remain above normal given upper level flow off the Pacific, even with lower heights on Monday, day 7. This precludes all wintry precipitation types from the forecast.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1220 PM Monday... Models are continuing to struggle with overall situation, continuing a low confidence aviation forecast. Generally expecting a mixture of VFR and MVFR cigs through at least 06Z, when rain will move back into the area from west to east, with gradually worsening conditions, to widespread MVFR/local IFR. Light southeasterly winds through 12Z, when winds will gradually veer to the southwest, and become gusty, with gusts in the teens lowlands, and 20 to 30 kt range across the higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of category changes may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M L HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M M M M M M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY L H H L M M M L M H H L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L M H L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible Tuesday night in rain and then lingering low stratus through Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...SL

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