Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041459 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1059 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AS WELL AS SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE. STILL FEEL A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES....BUT MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. 630 AM UPDATE... PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED OR DISSIPATED. STILL HAVE A SCHC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SRN TIER FOR AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER THIS MORNING AND POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG GIVEN 20 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK MOST OF THE NT THAT HAD DIMINISHED TO 10 KTS AS DAWN APPROACHED...AND LARGE AREAS THAT DID NOT GET RAIN. STILL BANKING ON SOME MORNING CU AFTER SUNRISE. PREV DISCN... COLD FRONT STILL NW OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY REFIRE S THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING UPON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT NOT SURE ABOUT CONVECTION NAM12 IS HINTING AT TONIGHT S. OTHERWISE MORNING STRATOCU WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL WV...WHERE THE RAIN DID NOT HIT. BLENDED IN THE MAV AND ONLY SOME MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...THOUGHT THE MET WAS TOO HIGH. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE MET AND MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE N OF THE FRONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH...AIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT WITH RECENT DRY WEATHER...AND THE FACT WE ARE IN FULL SUMMER FOLIAGE...AT THIS POINT...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WATER ISSUES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A GOOD SOAKER OF A RAIN...WITH OVER AN INCH POSSIBLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF QPF NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY FRIDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEXT SYSTEM MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS CENTER OF LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FEED IS GOOD WITH THIS STORM AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DRYING US OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A TAD. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA OR DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY SHOWERS THAT POP UP THIS MORNING OR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE TUG FORK...ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO CODE UP EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. ALSO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG GIVEN 20 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK MOST OF THE NT THAT HAD DIMINISHED TO 10 KTS AS DAWN APPROACHED...AND LARGE AREAS THAT DID NOT GET RAIN. STILL BANKING ON SOME MORNING CU AFTER SUNRISE GIVING RISE TO MVFR CIGS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...MAYBE A LITTLE LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS NOT AT ALL ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MIX ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER FIRST THING THIS MORNING...CENTRAL WV BY MID MORNING...AND THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY START TO FORM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT VSBYS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR AT THE AIRPORTS. DO HAVE BRIEF IFR CODED UP BEFORE DAWN PKB...CLOSEST TO THE HIGH. LIGHT SW SFC FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT W FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME NW TOWARD DAWN WED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MORNING CU TODAY MAY VARY. FORMATION OF FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY FROM FCST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JS/26 AVIATION...TRM

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