Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171839 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 239 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front tonight into Friday. Generally drier afterwards until Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Thursday... QLCS across Eastern Ohio associated with a prefrontal trough will push into the Ohio Valley later this evening. Well out ahead of this line we are currently seeing isolated to scattered showers and storms across our area. Despite moist and unstable low level profiles, drier air in the mid level has kept these cells in check, and the severe threat with these cells is extremely low, however they do contain brief downpours. Any severe storm threat will be associated with the main convective line later this evening, but this threat is still quite low, with our Northern Ohio Counties most at risk. Here, 0-6km bulk shear will be strongest at about 30 to 35 knots and although instability will drops off by the time it arrives later this evening, there may still be enough there to produce borderline severe storms. Also, with the high PWATs, torrential rainfall will be possible into the overnight hours. The actual cold front will not pass the area until later tomorrow afternoon and some weak showers and storms are possible. Behind the front drier air moves in with high pressure. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... What remains of a cold front crosses the CWA Friday for scattered showers. A weak upper level wave brushes the northern CWA over the weekend though high pressure will likely keep the rest of the area rain free and warm. High pressure continues Sunday for dry weather area wide. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... High pressure continues Monday for dry weather area wide. Moisture will increase Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. The cold front crosses Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 AM Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon. There may be brief lull before another line of showers and storms pushing through late this evening through tonight with a passing prefrontal trough. Brief IFR will be possible just about anywhere if a shower or storm moves overhead. For now have only included IFR at CRW and PKB based on current storms on Radar moving towards the airfields. Behind this trough there may be some low stratus early Friday morning. Conditions should improve to VFR again later tomorrow as the cold front passes from east to west and dries things out behind it. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Will likely need amendments for IFR in storms today through tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Dense river valley fog possible each morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.