-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 271835
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY. WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT COMBO SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD
FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS WERE ABOUT MINUS 18C TO MINUS 21C WERE HERE
TODAY. LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE DRYING UP THIS
EVENING. YET...WITH THE 850 THERMAL TROF STILL LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z...BEFORE THOSE TEMPERATURES CREEP HIGHER....A FEW OF THOSE
CLOUD PATCHES MAY STICK INTO THE NIGHT AROUND IN THE WEAK FLOW.

WENT A BIT COLDER IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY IN INTERIOR SE OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  HOWEVER...HAVE MID DECK CLOUDS RETURNING
BEFORE DAWN IN THE SOUTH TO AFFECT THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT.

WILL LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PCT SATURDAY...FIGURING ANY PCPN WILL BE
ALOFT.  AS MID DECK MOVES NE IN THE MORNING...BREAK COULD DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTH...AS LIFT WEAKENS 18Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE...MAYBE HELD DOWN A BIT IN
THE SOUTH BY THOSE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING H850 TO SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO START BRINGING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS LIFT THE FREEZING LINE NORTH
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS DAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW AT H500
CROSSING EAST ON SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE THIS
FEATURE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PA. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT SOME
INTERACTION WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT FEATURE FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE ONSET OF PCPN AS SNOW...BUT QUICKLY CHANGING
TO RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED WARM TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. HAVE LIKELY POP
AS NOT TRUSTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SPREAD ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...EAST WITH A COLD FRONT CHANGING PCPN TO SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS
WILL SEE LIQUID PCPN SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING INTO SNOW OR MIXED PCPN
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PCPN MOVES EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE
ENDING EARLY MONDAY.

BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGEST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTHEAST OH...PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES WITH
THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUED WORDING IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORIES
DUE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY. SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIGURED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HAVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S...AND MID TO LOW 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY REMAINS
RELATIVELY WARM BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERING THE SKIES.

WENT WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH BIAS
CORRECTED NAM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM...WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DETAILS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ENOUGH WARM AIR IS ABLE TO SCOUR OUT ANY
COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. WITH A GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD TAP OF
GULF MOISTURE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY LOW TO
RIDE UP OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MID TO LATE
WEEK...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PATH/MOISTURE
SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.

SO...POINT IS...WITH AT LEAST 1 FEATURE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND A DECENT SNOW PACK IN
PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY SOME OF THE MOUNTAINOUS
LOCATIONS...WATER ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE. PARTICULARLY...IF THE
SECONDARY FEATURE WOULD HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...AND SPREAD A SECONDARY
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE WEEK AFTER THE
INITIAL SHOT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE SECONDARY FEATURE IS
THAT BASED ON THE PATH...COULD EVEN SEE PERIODS OF SNOW...NOT JUST
RAIN. SO...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT/RATE OF SNOW MELT...AND
EVEN IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPES AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.

SO...IN A NUTSHELL...WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT THE RISK FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO...AS FEEL THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME RISK WITH THE FIRST FEATURE EARLY/MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT THROUGH
00Z...THEN MAINLY SCATTERED TO CLEAR.  INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS 8
TO 12 THSD AGL 09Z TO 15Z.  CLOUDS MAY LOWER INTO THE 5 TO 8 THSD FT
RANGE BY 18Z.

A FEW FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z. SOME 6 MILES IN SMOKE
FROM WOOD BURNING HOME HEATING POSSIBLE NEAR COMMUNITIES IN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY...INCLUDING EKN.

PCPN MAY BE DETECTED IN THE MID DECK 12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY...BUT WILL
LEAVE POPS AOB 14 PERCENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB