Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291845 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT ARRIVES PASSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT LLJ. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...MZ

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