Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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996 FXUS61 KRLX 201825 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mild temperatures this weekend and then a strong cold front crosses late Monday. This will bring widespread rainfall to the region. Cooler behind the front, but another warm up late next week with high pressure building in.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1100 AM Saturday... Previous forecast on track. As of 600 AM Saturday... Adjusted temperatures and sky cover for this morning based on current obs and trends. Non-diurnal trend now in full swing -- it even appears that the more sheltered valleys have broken through the inversion with temperatures on the increase. As of 1250 AM Saturday... Tricky temperatures again early this morning, as some areas have decoupled and cooled quickly, while others remain mixed. In general, have temperatures bottoming out in next couple hours before starting to warm with incoming clouds and continued SW flow. In a somewhat odd synoptic setup, our SW flow is actually producing some mid level cold advection with closed upper low near the Gulf Coast. So did not start warming higher elevations until after sunrise. Clouds should be on the increase today. Initially, expecting a layer of cirrus which is already spreading in from the west. But with the SW flow, the low to mid levels begin to saturate, with a stratus deck forming/moving in from the SW. As moisture continues to pump in, eventually we will see some drizzle/sprinkles/light rain as a warm front lifts through. Blended in ECMWF MOS for highs, which bumped up highs a degree or two across the south. The warm front departs to the north overnight, so cut back on POPs. However still lingered slight chance to chance across the north with GFS/ECMWF a bit slower than the NAM lifting the front through. Went with a non-diurnal temperature trend tonight, especially across the south after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 125 PM Saturday... Looking at well above average temperatures to start the period as we sit well within the warm sector or low pressure tracking northeast into the Great Lakes. This system will drag a cold front through the region on Monday. Strong SW return flow will send temperatures soaring and carry some decent moisture into the area. Models agree that front moves through fairly quickly late Monday night, and not expecting a ton of QPF out of it, even with slightly anomalous PWATs for the area. Still looking at a widespread half inch rainfall, with possibly some higher amounts nearing an inch in the the mountains. Colder air rushes in behind the front, but with only some lingering low level moisture, not expecting much in the way of snow. Even in the mountains, only about a half inch of snow accumulation is expected. Orographic accent will be limited with flow generally staying WSW to straight westerly behind the front, so this will help keep accumulations light.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 225 PM Saturday... Model guidance is in fairly good agreement as we head later in the week. May see a few snow showers in the mountains Wednesday into Thursday in NW flow and upper trough swinging through. However, after that, the trend has been for another warm up as we close out the period. Large high pressure and upper ridge build over the area at the end of the period and beyond with return flow over the Ohio Valley.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM Saturday... Morning MVFR stratus have lifted leading to mostly sunny skies. Satellite and sfc obs suggest there is broken thin cirrus across the area. In addition, a mid level deck is evident in satellite images to affect southern WV including BKW through this evening. High pressure will continue in control with widespread VFR conditions through the period. A warm front will lift across the area overnight tonight. Although light drizzle or sprinkles can occur with this feature, confidence is low, and were not included in TAF. Flow will continue out of the S to SW through the TAF period. A cold front will approach Monday capable to produce IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds along the heaviest rain showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add IFR visibilities if drizzle or rain materialize tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M M M H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Monday/Monday night under rain showers.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...ARJ

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