-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
513 AM EST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...LIFTING WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION
INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGES AND SFC OBS INDICATE MID TO UPPER DECK OF PCPN
FALLING AS VIRGA ACROSS EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV. EXPECT COLUMN
TO SATURATE AND FINALLY START REACHING THE GROUND BY 12Z TODAY.
TWEAKED POPS PER LATEST RADAR AND MODELS OUTPUT.

TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF PCPN TYPE AND DURATION. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND A PCPN SHIELD MOVING
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING...EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST OH AND AROUND THE TRI-STATE AREA NEARBY HTS...AS WELL AS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE FZRA WILL LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN...OR MIXED WITH LIGHT
SNOW AS A WARM FRONT FEATURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.

USED WRF GUIDANCE AND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPS ARE SIMILAR. EXPECT A STEADY OR NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT...MEANING THE LOWER TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DEEP WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD..WITH
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY AND NIGHT SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY ERODING ENOUGH OF THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...THAT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. STILL
THOUGH...EXPECTING UP TO ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE
ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES...PARTICULARLY EASTERN SLOPES. WILL PROBABLY
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIER RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH QPF WONT BE AS
GREAT...AND PW VALUES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR
SO...WITH MANY AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...ALONG WITH
WAVES ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND STALLS OUT TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER WAVE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON
TUESDAY. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING TRACK/WESTWARD
EXTEND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...SO FOR
NOW...JUST HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. REGARDLESS...SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE
THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH GRADUALLY DRYING...AND CLEARING WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED.  A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT
FRIDAY.  HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS.

DRY AIR AND THE LONG DECEMBER NIGHTS YIELDS COLD DAWN TEMPERATURES.

WAY DOWN THE ROAD...MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HAVE
SOME CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE FORM OF VIRGA
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT PCPN TO REACH THE
GROUND AROUND 12Z SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S...EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THE MORNING...THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. IM ADDITION...EXPECT CEILING
TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BELOW 800 FEET AND EVEN LOWER UNDER
MODERATE RAIN OR SNOW.

THE MIXED PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY MID MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS...AS THE BOUNDARY OF LIFTS NORTH WITH THE
WARM FRONT.

FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH SREF PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AT ALMOST
ALL SITES DUE IN PARTS TO POST RAIN FOG.

FLOW VEER FROM THE EAST TODAY...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MODERATE TO STRONG LATER
TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING FROM S TO SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR VS MVFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY...MOSTLY ON
ACCOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...AS TIMING OF THE TRANSITIONS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 12/08/13
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    L    M    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    L    M    H    L    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    L    M    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNDER SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RUNOFF IS BEGINNING TO SLOW ACROSS THE CWA...AND MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
WILL SOON CREST. FLOOD WARNING STILL IN EFFECT AT BELINGTON ON
TYGART VALLEY RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...MORE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN
WEST VIRGINIA ZONES. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE FLOODING
ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ADDITIONAL PARTS FOR PARKERSBURG ASOS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-018-020-024>032-037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ037-
     038.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ035-
     036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005-013.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...ARJ