Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 251505 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1105 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues its dominance through mid week. Cold front Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1100 AM Monday... Forecast continues to be on track for this period. Little changed needed. As of 620 AM Monday... Minimal changes to the forecast this morning. As of 205 AM Monday... As has been the case over the past several days, not much change in the sensible conditions to the forecast. Upper level ridge oriented northeast to southwest prevails, and with the higher heights, temperatures remain well above normal. Getting high level moisture slung into the CWA from Hurricane Maria, but otherwise, not expecting any effects from the tropical system in the near term. No precipitation expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Monday... Although our upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will slowly break down, it will continue to dominate our weather with dry and warm conditions through mid week. Temperatures will continue well above normal with no rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Finally a change in the pattern from a stagnant to a quite progressive one. A northern stream upper trough will push a cold front through the region from the northwest to start the period. However, with Maria forecast to stay east of our area, it will have the effect of robbing moisture from the cold front. Thus, all models have a significant but dry cold front coming across Thursday, with the main change being much cooler but still dry air for the end of the work week. Temperatures will go from well above normal to near normal. There will be a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the weekend under a cold upper trough. So while a light shower with this feature cannot be ruled out for the weekend, chances are not high enough to include at this time. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1100 AM Monday... Only changes made was to remove fog and low clouds from EKN as LIFR conditions are no longer an issue. VFR has returned to this location. Otherwise, no other changes were made. As of 620 AM Monday... Valley fog at CKB and EKN to dissipate early morning, followed by VFR conditions and winds less than 8kts through the day. Valley fog tonight is forecast to occur sooner and across all sites except for BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today, medium after 03Z Tuesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Late night valley fog through mid week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JB/26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JB/26

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