-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251505
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1105 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues its dominance through mid week. Cold
front Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1100 AM Monday...
Forecast continues to be on track for this period. Little
changed needed.

As of 620 AM Monday...

Minimal changes to the forecast this morning.

As of 205 AM Monday...

As has been the case over the past several days, not much change
in the sensible conditions to the forecast. Upper level ridge
oriented northeast to southwest prevails, and with the higher
heights, temperatures remain well above normal. Getting high
level moisture slung into the CWA from Hurricane Maria, but
otherwise, not expecting any effects from the tropical system
in the near term. No precipitation expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

Although our upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will slowly break
down, it will continue to dominate our weather with dry and
warm conditions through mid week. Temperatures will continue
well above normal with no rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Finally a change in the pattern from a stagnant to a quite
progressive one. A northern stream upper trough will push a
cold front through the region from the northwest to start the
period. However, with Maria forecast to stay east of our area,
it will have the effect of robbing moisture from the cold front.
Thus, all models have a significant but dry cold front coming
across Thursday, with the main change being much cooler but
still dry air for the end of the work week. Temperatures will
go from well above normal to near normal. There will be a
reinforcing shot of cooler air for the weekend under a cold
upper trough. So while a light shower with this feature cannot
be ruled out for the weekend, chances are not high enough to
include at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1100 AM Monday...
Only changes made was to remove fog and low clouds from EKN as
LIFR conditions are no longer an issue. VFR has returned to this
location. Otherwise, no other changes were made.

As of 620 AM Monday...

Valley fog at CKB and EKN to dissipate early morning, followed
by VFR conditions and winds less than 8kts through the day.
Valley fog tonight is forecast to occur sooner and across all
sites except for BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today, medium after 03Z Tuesday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Late night valley fog through mid week.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JB/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JB/26