-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 291845
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES PASSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM
FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET
SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ