Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 261811 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong cold front brings thunderstorms Thursday. Heavy rain possible especially Thursday night into Friday. High pressure for the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Wednesday... Flat cu field mainly from I-77 to the east. Otherwise noted some CI working in from the northwest. An upper level wave sweeps south across the Great Lakes with mid level clouds expected to spread across the forecast area across the forecast area Thursday. Moisture in atmospheric column increases significantly by Thursday afternoon as forecast area comes under the influence of high PW plume. Think severe threat will be somewhat diminished due to high precipitable water values. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be threat increasing from west to east in the afternoon hours. Latest model information has dipped most max temp values down a degree or two across the board for Thursday. The solution generally accepted since there will be more clouds than sun that could offset any warm air advection.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Wednesday... Models are in general agreement with cold front pushing through with embedded waves Thursday and exiting late Friday or early Saturday. Southerly flow out ahead of this system will increase moisture over the area. With increased moisture and instability SPC and WPC has the entire area in a slight risk for severe storms and excessive rain respectively. The only conundrum will be timing differences between the models. This could enhance or limit the severity and rain amounts. A Flash flood watch may be necessary across our northern zones as FFG guidance values are 1.5 inches or less in 1 hour there. In any case, this system bears watching. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 AM Wednesday... Low pressure and wraparound rains exit on Saturday, with dry and cool high pressure taking control over the region for the rest of the weekend and into next week. Very pleasant temperatures and low humidity will be the norm this weekend and into early next week, with a gradual increase in temperatures and humidity later in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Wednesday... Mostly VFR this afternoon into the late morning hours. Have river and elevated valley fog setting in once again after 09z. Fog and low stratus will lift and dissipate after sunrise. Offsetting amount of fog will be mid level clouds working in from the west in association with a front, so do not expect as widespread fog conditions Thursday morning. Chances of precipitation increase from west to east late in the TAF period. Also bring mentions of TS late in period over western sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of morning fog could vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions with thunderstorms likely Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/99 NEAR TERM...KMC SHORT TERM...JS LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...KMC

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