Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231616 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1116 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure provides dry weather this Thanksgiving day and Friday. A cold front crosses Saturday with little moisture. Colder Sunday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1100 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. As of 600 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. As of 300 AM Thursday... Once the leftover stratocu in the northern WV mountains is eaten by drier air early this morning, high pressure will provide a dry Thanksgiving day and night. An upper level trough crossing today into tonight will provide some mid and high cloud that will cover the sky like a thin gravy. The atmosphere will warm today, but not nearly as much as ovens, with highs close to well converged guidance and previous forecast. Temperatures tonight will be low enough to freeze leftovers. Stayed near lower end of guidance under clear, calm conditions, as the atmosphere also sleeps off the turkey.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Dry and warmer to start the short term period, with high pressure sliding off to the east and a good southwesterly flow taking hold. A cold front will move through the region on Saturday. Models differ with the amount of moisture associated with the front, and forecast blender continues to trend drier and drier, with only a slight chance of pops across the north. With its run to run consistency, have left the slight chance of pops produced by the blender. Any precipitation that does occur will start out as light rain, transitioning to a rain snow mix overnight Saturday. Any precipitation will taper off on Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday... High pressure will remain in control to start the long term period. Another quick moving front will affect the region mid week, with another round of light rain shower activity. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 600 AM Thursday... MVFR morning cu may form in and near the northern WV mountains, and visibility associated with valley fog may be close to MVFR before 13Z this morning, and again early Friday morning. Otherwise high pressure brings VFR conditions with light and variable surface flow beneath light west flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR morning cu at CKB and EKN may or may not occur. There may be valley fog early Friday morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM

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