Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 060736 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 336 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES THE COOL WEATHER TODAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT THEN COLD FRONT SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TODAY...WITH A DECREASING CHANCE WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWLANDS. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS DISTANCE FROM THE FORECAST AREA DO NOT CHANGE MUCH...THE TIGHTENING OF THE HEIGHT GRADIENT AROUND IT RESULTS IN ABOUT A 100 M HEIGHT RISE AT H5 BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST AS A RESULT. THIS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WILL DRY OUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAWN SATURDAY. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY THOUGH...IN RESPONSE TO WARM AND POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. RAISED HIGHS A BIT TODAY IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE...AS EASTWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR APPEARS TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN THE WEST TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY THOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND GET KICKED OFF THE EAST COAST AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCES APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY STORMS THAT FIRE UP. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/START OF WORKWEEK. HOWEVER...THIS DOES LITTLE TO CHANGE THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. ONCE AGAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SOGGY WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE AREA...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL WV. AS A RESULT...HAVE VFR FORECAST HTS AND PKB THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND VFR WITH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES CKB AND CRW. THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...WITH IFR AT BKW UNTIL MID MORNING FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD MAINLY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH WRAPS AROUND FROM THE NORTH NEAR DAWN FRIDAY MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY VARY. ALSO COULD GET SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/06/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M L M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L M M M M H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JB AVIATION...TRM

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