-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
440 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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MUCH COOLER AIR TURNS DRIER AND TODAY PROGRESSES.  CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  WARM FRONT IN LOWER
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS NE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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FINAL COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CWA AT THIS TIME...AT 08Z IT WAS
STRETCHING FROM CLARKSBURG SOUTH TO AROUND THE WV/VA/KY
INTERSECTION. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP WITH MIXING TODAY. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTINUES EAST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAV/MET FAIRLY CLOSE...AND SETTLED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE
TWO.

THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. MAV A BIT
COOLER THAN THE MET...AND AGAIN SETTLED IN BETWEEN. THIS GIVES
AROUND...TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO
OPTED FOR A FREEZE WARNING THERE. A BIT HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WHERE
FROST MAY FORM DUE TO THE WARM...WET GROUND...CONTINUED BREEZE
OVERNIGHT...AND RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT TO BOOT. DECIDED ON A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH CONTINUED
MENTION IN HWO FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING
COLD ENOUGH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...THINKING
IT WILL REMAIN MIXY ENOUGH TO NIX ANY FROST FORMATION EVEN AT 34-36
DEGREES. AT ANY RATE...CAMPERS CELEBRATING THE UNOFFICIAL START OF
SUMMER...OR THOSE WITH EARLY MORNING SOCCER OR BASEBALL WILL WAKE UP
TO A CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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MOST NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY.  TIMING THE EVENTUAL
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS A WARM FRONT...OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS A
CHALLENGE.

ONE DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ANY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SW-S. DID
HAVE MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SOME
PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  FURTHER NORTH...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA.  DID INCLUDE SOME FROST IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY DAWN SUNDAY.

WILL INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY...THINKING THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEAST...AT LEAST OVER THE MIDWEST...LEAVING US
VULNERABLE DOWNSTREAM.  HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT IS...IS ANOTHER
DILEMMA.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR DECK IN PLACE ACROSS CWA TO START THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT ALSO BRINGING GUSTY N/NW WINDS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...DECREASING FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN PICK BACK UP WITH MIXING DURING THE
DAY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
IN/MI...AND SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR TAKING OVER IN THE WEST AROUND SUNRISE...AND
LINGERING IN THE EAST A BIT LONGER. ALSO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS...SO INCLUDED THAT AT NORTHERN AND MOUNTAINS SITES. WITH
THE WINDS REMAINING...FOG NOT A HUGE CONCERN THIS MORNING..BUT DID
INCLUDE IN SOME MVFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ONCE THE CURRENT
CLOUDS CLEAR...VFR SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 05/24/13
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&&

.EQUIPMENT...
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KRLX 88D REMAINS DOWN. AWAITING NEW PARTS.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
     019-020-028>032-039-040.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ037-038-
     046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
EQUIPMENT...KTB