Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220111 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 811 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front stalls over the southern sections overnight, and meanders through the end of the week, with significant rainfall possible into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 800 PM Wednesday... Adjusted PoPs according to latest radar images and high resolution models. First batch of very isolated showers. Second batch will move northeast across the area overnight. Third batch of rainfall will be move widespread across southeast OH around 09Z and east of the OH River by 15Z Thursday. As of 250 PM Wednesday... A cold front currently over central portions of the CWA will stall as the 1st of several low pressure waves ride up along with it. NAM is further west and north with the GFS puts the axis along or near the Ohio River. All other models are somewhere in between. With the ground being saturated and and streams and rivers just experienced flooding, it won`t take much in the way of rain to cause flooding of small streams and creeks and get the rivers to rise as well. Rain from this 1st wave will set us up for the next wave on Friday into Saturday. So, have issue an FFA for our Ohio river counties and SE OH counties as 1st wave will pass over those areas starting 00Z Friday and continuing through 12Z Sunday. This watch may have to be expanded depending on where the heavier rains fall. Temperatures were a consenus of model guidance and QPF from OHRFC/WPC guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... The frontal boundary lifts back northward as a warm front Thursday night with additional rain showers possible. Breaks in the clouds toward the South and strong SSW flow bump Friday afternoon temperatures back into the 60`s and 70`s. During midday, strong upper level forcing along the boundary brings yet another wave across the northeast Ohio River Valley where 1.2-1.5" PWAT exists generating moderate to heavy rainfall. At this time, the axis of heaviest precipitation for this wave looks to lie just north of our area in central Ohio through northeast Ohio and western PA. However - we still anticipate up to an inch of rainfall across our NW zones in eastern Ohio. Another wave moves through Saturday during the day, again generating moderate to heavy rainfall, with additional amounts around an inch possible in SE Ohio and near the Ohio Valley. These rains will lead to rises on streams and creeks and may lead to localized flooding, hence the issuance of the Areal Flood Watch. Rainfall amounts drop off fairly quickly to the SE, but with the front moving back and forth through the area with each passing wave, rainfall of some variety is likely everywhere across the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 PM Wednesday... A welcome break in the synoptic pattern starts Saturday night as a short wave trough rotates through the upper Plains and Great Lakes Region. The strengthening jet ahead of it gives us one more wave of moderate to heavy rainfall overnight before the trough finally pushes this frontal boundary through the mountains and to the East coast by Monday morning. Models tend to dry this region out by sunset Sunday and high pressure quickly moves in behind for a quiet Sunday night through the end of the long term. Rainfall totals may again be quite high in the Saturday night/early Sunday timeframe, particularly in SE Ohio. Ohio Valley counties including WV counties near the Ohio River, all SE Ohio counties, and all NE KY counties could see an additional half inch to 1". Elsewhere rainfall totals are looking generally 0.25-0.5" with the passage of the cold front. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 150 PM Wednesday... Cold front reaching the eastern mountains this evening. Rain showers associated with front on and off at CRW, EKN and BKW through midnight. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR possible under rain showers. Radar images show lots of breaks in the showers having scattered showers this evening, but increasing in coverage and intensity as an upper level wave move through overnight. Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings or visibilities can be expected after the second batch of rainfall starting to spread from west to east by 06-09Z tonight. A long period of IFR/LIFR conditions is anticipated during the early morning hours as lower clouds and more rainfall affect the entire area Thursday into Friday. Winds behind the front are light from the north, but could be gusty near showers and higher elevations. Cold front expected to stall over the area with additional upper waves of low pressure riding up and along the front through the week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR Conditions along and behind the front could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H L M L L L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H M M L M M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H L H M L M M M L M M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L L M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR possible at times in showers Thursday night into the weekend.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011. OH...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Flood Watch from Thursday evening through Sunday morning for KYZ101-103. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...ARJ

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