Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 101859 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 159 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Next upper trough and cold front move in Monday night, with a stronger upper trough on Tuesday. Another cold shot arrives late next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 155 PM Sunday... Upper level pattern remains active with the closed upper level low anchored over the Hudson Bay area. Another vort max within the flow aloft will drop in from the Great Lakes over the next few hours. Sensible weather impacts will be more low mid level cloud cover that will bring flurries and low end chances for measurable precipitation over the northeast mountains later tonight after 05Z. Flow then flattens out Monday ahead of the next system which brings a clipper system in for the short term period. For the most part, with the exception of the aforementioned northeast mountains tonight, the near term forecast is dry. Warm front aloft brings a tight temperature gradient and increase in 850hPa temperatures Monday, so should see a recovery in the temperatures across the southern and western zones to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Sunday... Start the short term period off with a decent day on Monday. Temperatures should warm back up to normal values with southerly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front. That cold front will push through Monday night and into early Tuesday morning, bringing cold arctic air back into the region. May see some rain showers or a rain/snow mix out ahead of the front, but that will likely be short-lived as the cold air rushes in and changes any precip over snow. Should not see much in the way of snow accumulation with the initial frontal passage, but snow showers will be on the increase by Tuesday afternoon as an upper trough swings overhead. This system will be similar to what we just saw this weekend, but forecast soundings are indicating a bit more of instability. By Tuesday afternoon, NAM Bufkit cross sections indicate a modest zone of omega intersecting a nearly saturated Dendritic Growth Zone. These early indicators suggest snow squalls will be possible across the region and a quick half inch to an inch of snow will be possible. Timing will be everything, as the Tuesday afternoon commute could be impacted, but confidence remains low on the exact timing. It`s possible that winter headlines will be needed for Tuesday through Tuesday night in the favorable NW flow upslope areas of the mountains. Along with the snow in the mountains, gusty winds combined with some of the coldest air we have seen yet this season will drop wind chills possibly lower than minus 20F at times. Will mention all this in the HWO for now. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 335 AM Sunday... Upper trough swings to our east on Wednesday, but some snow showers may still be on going early Wednesday morning. Although conditions will improve through the day, it will remain quite cold and highs will likely be well below normal. Forecast guidance diverges after the middle of the week, as GFS brings another deep upper trough through the area. However, the Euro has a bit more of a zonal pattern with only a quick moving clipper system pushing through on Thursday. Have went with a blend of ensemble and operational guidance for days 5 through 7 for now. Any precip we do receive this time period will likely be all snow as the models at least agree that the cold air remains in place through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1250 PM Sunday... MVFR ceilings will yield to VFR over the next 2-4 hours for the remaining terminals across the northern tier today. Another upper level wave tonight brings a low chance for snow showers once again for EKN and the highest ridgetops, and also MVFR ceilings between 2 and 3kft after 09Z Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... Another wave Monday night through Tuesday is forecast to have similar, squally snow showers producing IFR conditions, favoring the mountain terminals. IFR in snow possible on Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...26

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