Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 201823 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 223 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...HARDLY WORTHY OF PUTTING SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. VERTICAL MOTION IS MAKING THE ABSOLUTE MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...WHICH IS NOT VERY MUCH GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF WIND ALOFT TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SEEING THIS IN THE FORM OF GUSTS TO 20MPH OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BUT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY VALLEY FOG. SHOULD GET THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DYING LINE...AND MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO COAST AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. WILL SEE STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND WITH THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...A STRONG GUST WITH THE LINE OR INDIVIDUAL CELLS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC BUT HAVE A SEE TEXT NORTH IN PENNSYLVANIA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MAIN FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ISSUE IN THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO MUCH OF MONDAY. IT APPEARS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING FRONT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ANY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH BEFORE SWINGING RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL LINGER BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL END BY MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THERE. THIS WILL LEAVE THE STRATUS FOR MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A QUITE CHILLY NIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S IN THE MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... PLAYED THE TAFS CONSERVATIVELY THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST OFF...NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...BUT WILL SEE A STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4KFT...GIVING WAY TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT. THESE WILL LOVER AS THE LINES OF SHOWERS WITH STORMS LATER SUNDAY...AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO COME INTO PLAY. PAIRED UP THE VISIBILITIES WITH THE POPS...SO HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS IN THAT SENSE UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH FOR EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT BASED ON NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE EKN DOWN TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY SITE FOR IFR OR WORSE TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH MVFR UNTIL AFTER FORECAST TIMES. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.