Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291836 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 236 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINING AN END TO THE DRY WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS...WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 60S...50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS A TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ALL SWINGING BACK TO A SOLN WHICH HAS FIRST WINTER STORM OF THIS EARLY SEASON IMPACTING THE AREA FRI NT AND SAT. THE NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH DRIVING THE EVENT WAS OVER NUNAVUT IN N CNTRL CANADA 00Z WED...WHILE THE SRN STREAM S/W WAS JUST CRASHING ASHORE BRITISH COLUMBIA. SO THESE FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER SAMPLED FOR THE MODEL RUNS. THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES E INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY WHILE THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES SEWD. THE TWO SYSTEMS THEN MOVE SEWD IN TANDEM THROUGH THE MIDWEST...THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE TN VALLEY BY FRI. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE SPELLS DRY WEATHER THU WITH PATCHY CLOUD ON MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER THU. MID AND HIGH CLOUD INCREASE OVERNIGHT THU NT INTO FRI...AS THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SHOWERS INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON FRI IN RESPONSE INITIALLY TO THE SRN STREAM S/W...AS THE NRN STREAM S/W CLOSES OFF WHILE DIGGING SWD THROUGH INDIANA. THE SRN STREAM S/W GENERATES A WARM WAVE OFF THE E COAST FRI...THEN A SECOND LOW CENTER FORMS CLOSER TO SHORE FRI NT IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH ENDS UP OVER THE CAROLINAS COME 12Z SAT /NAM-GFS/ OR VA/SRN WV /CMC-ECMWF-UKMET/. THIS POSITIONING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE COLD CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKS...ALONG WITH WHERE THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP. EITHER WAY...THE CURRENT SOLN ENVELOP DICTATES SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER POPS FRI NT AND SAT. ALTHOUGH A WARM CORE NEAR AN INITIAL SFC LOW DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE WV MOUNTAINS...THE SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION OF THIS DIGGING...CLOSING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE E COAST STRONGLY SUGGESTS ROLLING WITH THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH IS WARRANTED GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE BUT DIFFERENCES REMAINING IN THE DETAILS. HAVE CUT BACK WWD SNOWFALL FRI NT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST SIX HOUR TIME STEP...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING 00Z SAT /MID 30S HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER 40S LOWER TERRAIN. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THE COLUMN DOES SUPPORT SNOW BY 06Z SAT. ALSO HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SAT WITH NOT MUCH RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...BRINGING TOTALS TO 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...1 TO 2 FRI NT AND THEN ANOTHER 1 TO 3 ON SAT. THIS WARRANTS AN HWO MENTION FOR THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THIS EARLY SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...MAINLY OF WV...COME SAT MORNING. THE SYSTEM THEN COILS UP THE E COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WANING OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SAT NT...DEFINITELY A SLOWER WANING THAN PREVIOUS FCST ON ACCT OF A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM BEING DEPICTED IN THE LATEST NCEP SUITE. TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM ARE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... INCREASED POPS PRETTY DRASTICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN VS. SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. GFS IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER WHEN COMPARING THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. HAVE MOST AREAS TURNING OVER TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z SAT...ALTHOUGH LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN SATURDAY...AND EXPECT FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FREEZE HEADLINES IN HWO. STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM SUNDAY ON AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. HOWEVER...FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BY 08Z LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. EKN WILL DROP TO IFR BY 09Z AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL 13Z THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE FOG DISSIPATES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF MORNING FOG. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR IN STRATUS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IN SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/LS NEAR TERM...LS SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...LS

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