Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 281046 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 546 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING...TO BRIEFLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST OH EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN STALL ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. FLOW WITH SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COOLER AIR. A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WAVE CAN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO CONTINUE THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE FRONT...AND SLOWLY DECREASED THEM TO CHANCE POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S TONIGHT. USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE REMAINS OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEST TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST AREA BEGINS TO DRY ON ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED AND MESSY DURING THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL ONLY BE LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT ONLY 1-1.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRASTICALLY FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. USED A MIX OF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 850MB TEMP TROUGH ENTERING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES LOOK RATHER LIMITED...SO COULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN SOME FLAKES DRIFTING THROUGH THE AIR AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR A BULK OF THE LONG TERM BEFORE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE A POOR CONSISTENCY RECORD THIS SEASON...SO STUCK CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF POPS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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COLD FRONT EVIDENT IN DOPPLER RADAR AND SFC OBS ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH AT 10Z. LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST. CODED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS STARTING WITH PKB AROUND 14Z...SPREADING EAST TO AFFECT THE REST OF SITE THIS MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE FROM MVFR TO IFR THIS MORNING MAINLY WESTERN SITES. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN SITES ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND POSSIBLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SCENARIO COULD KEEP IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES LONGER...PERHAPS THROUGH 21Z. SOME GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER 21Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LINGER IN IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND LOW CIGS INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...ARJ

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