Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 100547 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1247 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Remaining cold today. A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1235 AM Saturday... Still some flurries lingering...mainly along and east of I-79. But clouds are beginning to break up west of the Ohio River. Blended WRFNMM into previous POPs, with little resulting change. Snow showers and flurries will gradually taper off through this morning. Temperatures today will struggle to get above freezing for most, but there should be some sunshine across the southern half of the forecast area to help ease the chill some. Cirrus begins moving in late today into tonight ahead of a warm front. Have a tight POP gradient, with precip just skimming the far north late tonight, pretty much just northern most tier of counties. ECMWF is a bit more aggressive bringing precip south...while the NAM and GFS barely clip the CWA. 850mb temps still well below zero, so precip should be in the form of snow with some minor accumulations possible by sunrise Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Friday... A warm front will lift through the upper Ohio Valley Sunday in response to a surface low emerging out of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Confidence is increasing on this staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. This remains a low confidence forecast primarily due to the extent of WAA from the south. Much of the remainder of the area should stay dry until late Sunday as the cold front approaches. A non diurnal trace was maintained Sunday night with increasing WAA in the low levels as which point rain will be the predominate precip type for most of the area. CAD on the eastern slopes may keep a freezing rain threat in, at least initially. The cold front exits Monday with a drying trend to ensue. It will be warm with a spike into the low 50s possible before the front crosses.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 325 PM Friday... There continues to be some disagreement on how the next shot of cold air comes to fruition later next week. This argues for not straying away from the Superblend for now. This brings the next round of arctic air into the area midweek which may or may not be ushered in by a wave on the front. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 1245 AM Saturday... Still have mostly MVFR stratus hanging around, although breaks are beginning to move in from the west. Overall trend will be an improvement to VFR from west to east through this morning. Still a few flurries falling along and east of I-79. Cirrus begin streaming in late today and tonight. Wind will generally be light, with some variability as a warm front sets up across or just north of CWA late tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may vary into this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 12/10/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H L M M M L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M L M M M L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H L M M M M L L CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M L AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/30 NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ

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