Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 052216 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 516 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE SNOW AND BRINGS RECORD COLD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...WITH WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH AND...EVENTUALLY...WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTH...THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 5 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED THE POP AND SKY GRIDS. SOME CLEARING STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO ALREADY. ADDED IN POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AS PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS CLEARING LIGHT BAND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY. IN ADDITION...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN WAS PREDICTED...MAKING FOR A VERY TOUGH LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THINK CURRENT MIN T FORECAST LOOKS DECENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WHILE SNOW INTENSITIES CONTINUE TO LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON...WE WILL WAIT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE SNOW TOTALLY CUTS OFF. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION...WITH MAYBE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WE WILL EXPIRE THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS...IF NOT CANCELING THEM BEFORE HAND...THE LAST BATCH EXPIRING AT 7 PM OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY BUILDING THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT. THIS BRINGS UP THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT FOR THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW PACK. MODELS TRY TO HANG THE LOW CLOUDS INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...WHICH WOULD TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE PER SNOW PACK EFFECT. IN GENERAL...WILL GO BELOW TEMP GUIDANCE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR FASTER. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT GO WILD ON THIS. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...TO BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF...NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY ANTICIPATED. FOR FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT THEY WILL MIX OUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL NOT MENTION. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING BELOW FREEZING WITH COMPLIMENTS OF THE SNOW PACK. A RECORD SHATTERING NT IS ON TAP... SITE BKW CRW EKN HTS PKB RECORD 16-2001+ 10-1917 0-1901 8-1902 6-1960 FCST 5 6 - 3 1 - 1 && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES S OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD...ALLOWING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO THE N TO GRAZE BY. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH CROSSING LATE FRI SANS MOISTURE GIVEN THE DRY ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL BE CLOSE BY...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD WITH IT. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE FLATTER...BUT WITH THE HIGH FARTHER AWAY...THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE SOMETHING REACHES THE GROUND AS IT SKIRTS ACROSS THE N. STOUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BENEATH AN INVERSION AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND....PROMPTING A CLOUDIER FCST. BLENDED IN MOSTLY BIAS CORRECT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...LOWER E AND HIGHER W FRI NT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTS IN INCREASING CLOUDS W. LOWS SAT NT ARE HIGHER GIVEN THE CLOUDIER FCST. DID RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE BUT STILL STAYED LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALL AROUND GIVEN THE SLOWLY ERODING SNOW COVER && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WNW FLOW ALOFT NEAREST SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER HIGHS RISE MUCH. THIS EFFECTS HOW FAR N SRN STREAM SYSTEMS GET TUE AND AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS ALSO AFFECTS HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE. STILL DO SHOW SOME MODERATION GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR AND THE MARCH SUN. BLENDED IN WPC AND...IN SOME CASES THE MEX AS WELL...WHICH WERE NOT FAR APART...AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FCST. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY... AT 18Z MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AT 18Z...WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE SNOW ENDS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z. CLEARING THEN SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY 00Z WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BY 06Z REACHING A CRW-CKB LINE...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 09Z. SNOWS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY 22Z..AND END THERE BY 05Z. AFTER 09Z...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU AFTER 14Z. NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS RIDGETOPS...WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY END FASTER THIS AFTERNOON...AN CLEARING MAY BE FASTER TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EST 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H M M H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008-013>020-024>040-046-047. OH...NONE. KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003- 004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV NEAR TERM...JMV/SL SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...JMV

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