Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 291729 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front pushes in late Thursday, ahead of a system that will cross Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 127 PM Wednesday... Clouds have been much slower to clear than previously thought. However, they are now clearing, especially from the north and west. The clouds should continue to clear during the evening hours. Clouds will then begin to increase across portions of the mountains by late tonight, as winds turn easterly ahead of an area of low pressure. The low pressure system will continue to approach the area Thursday, with a warm front expected to push into the region from the southwest during the afternoon. Expect precipitation chances will increase on Thursday. However, the models differ about the onset of the precipitation chances. Latest 12 UTC NAM suggests that much of the area should remain dry with some low precipitation chances developing in the mountains. Latest 12 UTC GFS is much faster with precipitation chances across much of our NE KY and SE OH counties by daybreak. The precipitation chances will then spread across the remainder of the area during the day. Previous forecast indicated a trend which was a compromise of these models and see no reason to make any wholesale changes to that forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Active, but progressive pattern continues with a broad low pressure system crossing Friday. System spacing is buffered by a day or two on both sides. This tends to allow excess precip to evacuate the area making water issues less likely. Stuck in a pattern that keeps trekking systems` low pressure centers over OH/WV, so healthy doses of precip continue with each system keeping FFG low, but difficult to pull out specifics as slight variations in track equate to a different forecast. High pressure builds Saturday, but thick, residual low level moisture may keep -dz around. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... More of the same, continued parade of similar type systems and phasing with large breaks in between. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 127 PM Wednesday... Low clouds continue to erode with much of the region still experiencing mvfr cigs. Conditions should rapidly improve with most locations having vfr conditions by 23 UTC. An area of low pressure will approach the area tonight. In response, northeasterly winds will turning easterly then southeasterly overnight. With the southeast flow, clouds and maybe some light rain or drizzle should redevelop along the eastern slopes tonight with some MVFR to IFR in the mountains. As low pressure system continues to approach on Thursday, expect chances for showers will spread across southeast Ohio, Northeast Kentucky and the western half of West Virginia by 18 UTC. There could also be a few thunderstorms. Much of the area will see VFR conditions with MVFR to IFR conditions still possible in the mountains FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Clouds could be slower to erode this afternoon. Showers and ifr conditions could be more prevalent in the mountains than thought. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...JW AVIATION...JSH

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