Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 280239 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 939 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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850 TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE SATURATED MOISTURE MOSTLY AOB 7 THSD FT. 00Z SOUNDINGS HAVE PIT DOWN TO MINUS 11C Q AND ILN DOWN TO MINUS 10C. THAT 850 MB THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z-13Z FRIDAY. CONSIDERING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE FLUFF FACTOR...POSTED AN OVERNIGHT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY. HAVE AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN WEST VIRGINIA. HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY MID AND LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL EVAPORATE BUT MID DECK INCREASING FROM THE WNW. SO CLOUD COVER A TOUGH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT MOSTLY 2 TO 4 MILES IN VSBY OVER WV UPSLOPE TERRAIN...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS 06Z TO 12Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 25 HND TO 35 HND FT BKN/OVC ACROSS LOWLANDS THROUGH 15Z WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN ACROSS WV MOUNTAINS. AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT BECOMING SCATTERED FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MID DECK CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT INCREASING AND THICKENING 18Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY FROM WNW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 11/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EST 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H L M H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H M H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...KTB

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