Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 200543 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... REMOVED FOG ALONG THE TYGART RIVER VALLEY AS EXPECTING HEAVY FROST...USUALLY DOMINATES AGAINST FOG FORMATION. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR. AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/20/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M L M L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020- 027>032-035>040. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...ARJ

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