-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241955
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS NE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY
AND TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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VERY TOUGH FCST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DWPTS
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR FROST TONIGHT GIVEN
AFTN MIXING. NOT SURE IF THESE GO LWR NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE RECOVERING
THIS EVE. GUIDANCE FOR METRO AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS RUN 32 TO 40F
FROM KHTS TO KCRW. H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE GROUND TO TRY TO GO CALM. ALL
OF THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS FOR EXPANDING FROST ADV. HOWEVER...GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT MOST FOLKS HAVE SOME OF THEIR VEGGIES IN
THE GROUND ALONG WITH ANNUAL PLANT INVESTMENTS...FELT PRUDENT TO
LEAN A LITTLE LIBERAL AND EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS REST OF CWA SAVE FOR S
COAL FIELDS TO SW VA. OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF FROST.
HEADLINE SHOULD GARNER MORE ATTENTION FOR FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. ALSO EXPANDED FRZ WARNING TO RALEIGH BASED ON
GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 28F TO 33F. THEY WILL HAVE GET UNDER INVERSION
THOUGH GIVEN H925 WINDS OFF MDLS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE N. NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO FAST IN ERADICATING THE
LLVL MOISTURE VS RUC WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY. RUC SHOWS CLDS
LIFTING AND SCT THIS EVE ACROSS THE N BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN N MTNS
BY 06Z. NAM KEEPS ENTIRE COLUMN DRY BUT HAS NOT HANDLED TDY WELL AT
ALL. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC AND REDEVELOP SOME STRATUS IN N MTNS
LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS...BUT STILL FEEL AOB FRZ TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED.

UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO E COAST ON SAT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
COMPARED TO TDY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED
TWEAKING SOME...MAINLY ACROSS THE N.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY.  TIMING THE EVENTUAL
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS A WARM FRONT...OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS A
CHALLENGE.

ONE DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ANY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SW-S. DID
HAVE MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SOME
PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  FURTHER NORTH...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA.  DID INCLUDE SOME FROST IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY DAWN SUNDAY.

WILL INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY...THINKING THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEAST...AT LEAST OVER THE MIDWEST...LEAVING US
VULNERABLE DOWNSTREAM.  HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT IS...IS ANOTHER
DILEMMA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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STRATOCU SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM W TO E BY THIS EVE.
EXCEPTIONG BEING N LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY N MTNS WHERE MVFR
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z. HAVE KEKN WITH SOME BKN MVFR
BASES AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN AFTER 09Z WITH
SLACKENING WINDS THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF SUN. NW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. MAY SEE SOME FG HUG WARMER RVRS WHICH MAY AFFECT RVR
TERMINALS. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY ATTM WITH BL WINDS HANGING ONTO A
BIT OF A PUFF. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL TOMORROW WITH JUST
SOME PASSING MID CLDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. STRATUS
MAY NOT REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>032-039-040.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ035>038-
     046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30