Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 180208 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1008 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COOL THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ALONG THE GULF COAST ON SATURDAY BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1003 PM EDT THURSDAY... FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT. 1042 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY... EVENING UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING HOURLY GRIDS...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED DEW POINTS THIS EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES RADIATE DOWN TONIGHT...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. ALSO ADDED FROST TO THE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE TO COINCIDE WITH FROST ADVISORY. AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE SUCH THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED AGAIN AND MIN TEMPS MAY SLIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE. THUS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH EVEN ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT FOR FROST...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH...EXPANDED THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY TO OUR COMMON BORDER WITH THE RALEIGH WFO. ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH...TEMPS MAY VERY WELL REACH 32F OR BELOW AGAIN...BUT WILL JUST KEEP A FROST INSTEAD OF A FREEZE FOR CONSISTENCY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEAST CONUS DISTURBANCE...BUT PROBABLY NOT IN ENOUGH TIME TO STUNT DECOUPLING. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH REGARDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST CONUS DISTURBANCE TRACK...SUCH THAT SOME SLT CHC POPS WERE NECESSARY ACROSS NW NC BY LATE DAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY... MODELS ARE CONTINUING TREND OF DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. BOTH EURO/GFS SHOW A CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN FL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST UNDER DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TO CHC OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED CHANCE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER SOLUTION THAN EXISTING FORECAST BUT LESS THAN HPC QPF SOLUTION WITH HAS UP TO 0.50 INCHES OVER OUR NC COUNTIES. KEPT AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO UNDER 0.25 INCHES BUT IF THE NORTHWARD MODEL TREND SOLUTION CONTINUES COULD WELL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH UPPER SYSTEM AND SURFACE REFLECTION TRACKING MORE OR LESS DUE EAST HAVE KEPT NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA DRY ON SATURDAY. SE LOW CONTINUES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY TAKING ANY PRECIP WITH IT AND PROVIDING BETTER WEATHER FOR EASTER SUNDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING SLOW TO DISLODGE FROM NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SEE EASTERLY FLOW PERSIST. IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLER AS A RESULT GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MID/LATE APRIL CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WELL OUT TO SEA AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS BRING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE FORCING IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY... VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME CALM FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES WILL THROW HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR DIRECTION LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS...MEANING AN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MVF AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. VFR FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS AND -SHRA TO THE AREA DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ022>024- 032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ004>006. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PC NEAR TERM...KK/KM/RCS SHORT TERM...DS/PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...KM/RCS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.