Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 311148 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 748 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA VICINITY OF MOUNT ROGERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL SEE THE GREATEST WINTRY IMPACT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY... TRICK OR TREAT. THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER...ALTHOUGH QUIET AND NEAR NORMAL FEELING AT THE MOMENT...WILL CHANGE INTO A DIFFERENT COSTUME BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL START OFF RELATIVELY BRIGHT PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE...BUT AS THE HIGH FADES TO OUR EAST...SKIES WILL DARKEN FROM THE WEST AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 2PM AND THEN MOVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL...BUT WILL FALL 5 TO 8 DEGREES SHORT OF OUR NORMAL HIGH FOR THE DATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY... IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR THE GREAT PUMPKIN I THINK YOU ARE IN FOR A TRICK INSTEAD OF A TREAT. THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WEARING A SCARY COSTUME...COURTESY OF THE MANITOBA MAULER (LOW PRESSURE COMING FROM THE CANADIAN PROVINCE OF MANITOBA). THIS FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DIVE SOUTH FASTER THAN A HEADLESS HORSEMAN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS, EXPECT MUCH COLDER WEATHER BY SATURDAY WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. MODELS INDICATE THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE AROUND THE WITCHING HOUR TONIGHT. BOO. WITH THE UPPER LOW HOVERING OVERHEAD SATURDAY...GOOSE BUMPS WILL BE COMMON AS MUCH COLDER AIR GETS UNLEASHED VIA BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. 85H TEMPS PLUNGE TO NEAR M6 DEG C IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE A WINTRY PRANK WILL PLAY OUT DURING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATION LANDSCAPE BECOMING MASKED IN A LAYER OF WHITE. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC AND THIS SHOULD BE GROUND ZERO FOR SNOW WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THIS HIGHER IMPACT AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA INCLUDING MOUNT ROGERS...WHICH MAY RECEIVE SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM TO PARTAKE IN MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS OF VA...BUT NOT UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...THICKNESSES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL SUPPORTING NOTHING BUT A COLD RAIN FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS STRONG DOWNSLOPE DRYING BEGINS PER INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF FOR THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER /0.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHEAST CWA (LYNCHBURG-BUCKINGHAM)...TO NEAR ONE INCH /1.00/ IN THE SOUTHWEST (BLUEFIELD-BOONE). A WINTER SHIVER WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE L-M20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE SUNDAY IN SPITE OF ANY CLEARING...AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDER-SPREAD KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES DIPPING AT OR BELOW 32 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...RAMPING UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER SUNDAY. ADVISORY SORT OF GUSTS...NEAR 40 KTS...ARE LIKELY VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING. WIND TRAJECTORIES FROM 340 DEGREES ALSO SUGGEST STRONG CROSS WINDS LIKELY ALONG I-77 VCNTY OF FANCY GAP.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS RISING AT 500 MB MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SEASONABLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEEK THEN EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING A BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 800 AM EDT FRIDAY... EXPECT VFR AT ALL PRIMARY TAF SITES THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP VCNTY OF THE TERMINALS NEAR THE THE MOUNTAINS. MAY NEED TO AMEND SOME OF THE TAFS PENDING TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND IS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS TO LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. LOOK FOR THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES TODAY WITH ONSET OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z/2PM...SPREADING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY 00Z/8PM THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 18Z/2PM TO 00Z/8PM TIME FRAME...THEN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. THIS VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING FREEZING LEVELS WITH TIME...PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PTYPE CHANGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE...FROM BLUEFIELD WV (KBLF) TO BOONE NORTH CAROLINA (KTNB). THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PLAY OUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NC/TN MTNS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SMOKIES. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST SATURDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED. IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PM EQUIPMENT...PM

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