Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 312006 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 406 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY...WHEN IT WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THE REGIONS FIRST SNOW IN THE SOME PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE OVER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE OUTER BANKS BY SATURDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN OHIO THIS EVENING TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE DEEPENING AND BECOMING THE PRIMARY LOW OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG Q-VECTOR FORCING TONIGHT WITH THE BEST LIFT FROM 8PM FRIDAY TO 8PM SATURDAY. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 290K FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON ON SATURDAY. BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE THE WESTERN SLOPES WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST...850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH THE STRONGEST JET ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. NAM WAS SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE RISES AS THE LOW MOVES OUT TO AND DEEPENS...PEAKING AT NEARLY 8MB/6HRS LATE SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS PERPENDICULAR TO THE BLUE RIDGE SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT EASTERN FOOTHILL COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL NOT ENOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...EVEN ON WESTERN SLOPES IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TO NEED AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY... SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE WELL OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED POCKET OF VERY CHILLY AIR WILL LIFT OUT VERY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING FROM THE VICINITY OF -5C TO +5C BY EARLY MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY AS THE LOW DEPARTS WITH HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 15F BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. WITH A 1032 OR SO MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE FALL SEASON BY EARLY MONDAY. VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS RANGING FROM LOW 20S (AND EVEN A FEW HIGH TEENS) IN WESTERN VALLEYS TO NEAR 30 FAR EAST WHICH IS ENTIRELY CREDIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SOME POSSIBLE SNOW COVER IN THE WESTERN ZONES ALTHOUGH REMAINING SNOW COVER LIKELY TO BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS LESS IDEAL. FOR LOWS WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND PUTTING ENTIRE CWA INTO A FREEZE BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL..L/M 60S FOR HIGHS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT FRIDAY...
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AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY... RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF WEATHER TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT FEATURE OF ANY NOTE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A WEAK AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE SIMILAR TO SEVERAL RECENT ONES IN THE LAST HALF OF OCTOBER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER POSSIBLY A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EVEN LESS OR NOTHING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY IN OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FOR PARTS OF THAT AREA WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS RUNNING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS. THE LONG TERM FORECAST DOES NOT SEEM TO OFFER MUCH HOPE TO CHANGE THAT SITUATION.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY... CEILINGS HAVE LOWER TO MVFR IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KROA AND KBCB THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WILL UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT KLWB...KBCB...AND KBLF AFTER 2AM. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT KBLF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE COAST SATURDAY...STRONG PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE MTNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT KLWB AND KBLF. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... THE AC UNITS FOR THE RADAR SHELTER ARE BAD. RADAR OPERATION WILL BE INTERMITTENT UNTIL SUCH TIME THE AC UNITS ARE FIXED. IF SHELTER TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WE WILL PLACE THE RADAR INTO STANDBY TO AVOID DAMAGE TO THE TRANSMITTER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...AMS EQUIPMENT...AMS

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