Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 062325 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 725 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARMER AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH A WARMING TREND AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY... UPPER AND SFC LOW PRESENTLY NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION. A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPARKING SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ROLLING THROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SMALL BASED ON LATEST HRRR WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH. DESPITE RECENT RAINS...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS ASIDE FROM THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER FLOODING ALONG AND NEAR THE DAN RIVER. GIVEN ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE...FOG COULD BECOME A CONCERN THIS EVENING...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PASSING LOW AND A SECOND ONE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INDUCE SOME STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW...HOWEVER NOTHING ABOVE 35 MPH ARE FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...SHOWERS SHOULD FIRE UP IN THE REGION...PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AT THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BUT LITTLE MORE BEYOND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED. AGAIN...EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOOD CONCERNS. NIGHT TIME LOWS SHOULD BE SEASONAL IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S...AND TOMORROWS HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AND WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO SOME SHALLOW RIDGING AND EVENTUALLY SET UP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING THE MODERATING TREND TO CONTINUE IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SATURDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE AND CREATE QUITE GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE TO THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN TRANSITORY AND TRANSITION FROM A SHALLOW RIDGE TO A PROGRESSIVE QUASI ZONAL REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EAST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WEST WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 700 PM EDT FRIDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CREATED POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR OVERNIGHT. ANY EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FADE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY. THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A SUBSIDENCE ZONE SATURDAY TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. HEATING UNDER LEFT-OVER COLD POOL MAY GENERATE A FEW AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MAINLY VFR INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SUB VFR WEATHER TO THE AREA...MAINLY BCB/BLF/LWB INTO SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THOUGH WARM FRONT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE WITH THOSE OTHERWISE VFR.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...JR/KK/RAB SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...JR/RCS

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