Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 021936 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 336 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY... GOING TO SEE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ONE FIRING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/FOOTHILLS FROM FLOYD SOUTH TO WILKES...AND OTHER MOVING INTO SE WV...ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. THE 12Z NAM IS DOING EXCELLENT ATTM WITH HAVING THIS...BUT AT 00Z THIS EVENING FIRES UP A LINE FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR SW VA/SE KY. BY THIS TIME...LEANED TOWARD A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...AND AT THE SAME TIME KEEP CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT ALONG LEE TROUGH. UPSTREAM THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS OVER SRN OHIO AND ANOTHER OVER INDIANA WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF US BUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SE WV EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TAPER POPS OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH LACK OF FORCING. LOWS TONIGHT KEEP THE PERSISTENT MUGGY TEMPS WE HAVE HAD...WITH MID 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY...FRONT SHIFTS INTO NC AND WILL SEE MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DO LIKEWISE...WHILE NORTH WINDS TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT OVER THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER 8H FRONT EDGES INTO THE NRN CWA ONLY...SO KEEPING MOST OF OUR REGION IN THE SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS. FOR POPS WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF BLF-ROA-LYH LINE...MAINLY DRY NORTH...WITH THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER AND SOUTH IN THE LOW CHANCE. TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES UP NORTH BUT STILL WARM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWER 80S WEST...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY... STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER PA WILL BE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NC. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL POLEWARD OF OUR REGION IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA BUT BETTER COVERAGE MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS 5 TO 8F ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGY...RUNNING MID 80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS FROM NEAR 60 NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY... SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LIKELY ACT AS FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF VA-NC BORDER. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS LIKELY MON-TUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK TO 12-14C RANGE..YIELDING AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL HIGHS/LOWS BEFORE RIDGE TRIES TO AMPLIFY AGAIN.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 135 PM EDT TUESDAY... VFR EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE BLF/LWB AREA AROUND 21Z...SO NOT TAKING THE TEMPO OUT FOR THEM YET. THIS WILL BE WHERE ANY SUB VFR OCCURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER EAST...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SO NOT MENTIONING IN THE TAFS EXCEPT VCTS ROA/BCB. TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS ANDS THUNDERSTORMS TO WANE IN THE AREA...BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING IN THE MTNS WITH THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT THE ISSUE TURNS TOWARD FOG...AS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND IF IT RAINS NEAR A TERMINAL. THINK CONFIDENCE IN FOG OCCURRING IS HIGHER AT LWB AND BCB...MAINLY MVFR TEMPO IFR. FOG GOES AWAY AFTER 13-14Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED TIL 18Z WED. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US WEDNESDAY AND MODELS FAVOR CONVECTION SOUTH OF A DAN-TNB LINE. IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR EXCEPT ANY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE BCB/LWB AREA THU. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP EQUIPMENT...RAB

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