Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 301453 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 953 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY...CROSSING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION SUNDAY...AND REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 940 AM EST FRIDAY... MORNING SOUNDING AT RNK SHOWING A GREAT SETUP FOR SNOW BANDS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO NEARLY 700 MB WITHIN A STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION AIDED BY INSTABILITY...AND NW WINDS OF 30+ KNOTS THAT ARE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT UNDER THE INVERSION. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW WITHIN BANDS OVER THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS WEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW CROSSING INTO SE WEST VA PER UPSTREAM AXIS OF SNOW NOW WEST OF BLF. THINK THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MORE HEATING WILL TURN BANDS INTO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT IN A DECREASING FASHION GIVEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW. ALSO BEST JET AND CORE OF THE 850 MB COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PASSING BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND TO PRECIP. STILL APPEARS ENOUGH LINGERING TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVER WESTERN GREENBRIER UNTIL 4 PM WHILE COVERING ELSEWHERE WITH CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS GIVEN MORE ISOLATED NATURE TO THE HEAVIER SNOW. THUS ALSO TWEAKED UP POPS TO MORE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL WEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN DECREASED TO MAINLY THE NW UPSLOPE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS STILL LOOK GOOD ALTHOUGH SEEING SOME HIGHER GUSTS RIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER PASSING SHORTWAVE ATTM AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER SURGE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FINAL WAVE AND DEEP MIXING. DID BOOST SPEEDS UP A BIT MORE AND BUMPED TO NEAR ADVISORY EAST FOR A WHILE BUT NOT PLANNING TO EXPAND THE GOING ADVISORY FOR NOW. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN BANDS BUT THINK THE COMBO OF A HIGH INVERSION LEVEL AND CLOUDS TO LIMIT SPEEDS SO NO UPGRADE TO HEADLINES WEST. KEPT TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DROPPING OUT EAST LATER AS SOME EARLY HIGHS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 500 AM EST FRIDAY... SURFACE CYCLONE RESIDES TO OUR NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONT CROSSED OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TUMBLE LATER THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLDER AIR WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9AM AND NOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WV...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR PLACES LIKE QUINWOOD/CRAWLEY WV (THEY HAD AN INCH OR TWO ON THE GROUND AS OF 4AM). 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH BLUEFIELD AND INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...WITH A DUSTING IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE VA/NC HIGHLANDS/HIGH COUNTRY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE...THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR THE RIDGE CRESTS. STRONG MOMENTUM MIX DOWN ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC WITH POTENTIAL FOR 35 MPH GUSTS TO BE OBSERVED FOR DANVILLE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL TAKE A MORE SERIOUS NOSE DIVE TONIGHT...READINGS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE LOWER 20S (POSSIBLY THE UPPER TEENS) FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF WINDS STAY UP SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE EAST...UPPER TEEN WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY. A NICE SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 20S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRAVEL EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH MAY HOLD THE KEY TO SUNDAY COMPLICATED WEATHER FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES AND PLACEMENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS MORNING 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTS THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH FOR SUNDAY. THE P-TYPE QUESTION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WITH SUNDAY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES START COLD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IF DRY AIR IS LEFT-OVER FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE...PRECIPITATION FALLING COULD SEND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW FREEZING...KEEPING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION AS SNOW AND A COLD RAIN IN THE EAST. IF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES STRONGER...MORE WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA CHANGING SNOW OVER TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...THEN COLD AIR ENTERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO CHANGE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. MOS TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT FOR HIGHS SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOCATED NEAR ANNAPOLIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL REALLY KICK IN. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE HWO. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY... TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...TRENDING TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS KEEP THINGS PROGRESSIVE AND ARE CONSISTENT IN PHASING THE UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN INTO A LONG WAVE WESTERN TROF/EASTERN RIDGE PATTERN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS WE GET TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE START THE PERIOD WITH A COASTAL LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN AND RESIDUAL NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS US QUIET AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS SHOT WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA. THIS WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...OPENS THE DOOR TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN QUITE HIGH RECENTLY AND WHILE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS SOLID...DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS FROM ANY OF THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS. THE EURO IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE EASTERN TROF AND DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTH AND WEST AREAS...WHILE THE GFS/NAEFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND DOES NOT ADVERTISE A COASTAL LOW AND KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT IN LATER MODEL RUNS BUT FOR NOW WILL SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARD THE DRIER GFS/NAEFS. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 800 AM EST FRIDAY... MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE STRONG...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WITH A 50KT NORTHWESTERLY LLJ OVER THE REGION... EXPECT 25-40KT SURFACE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH MVFR LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...IMPACTING BLF/LWB/BCB. FLURRIES MAY DRIFT AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT GENERAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN WV SHOULD DISSIPATE...WITH MAINLY VFR REGION WIDE FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING OUT OF THE SW STATES WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MOSTLY WINTER PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. IN BETWEEN...LOCATIONS SUCH AS BCB/ROA/LYH...COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE INTO MON...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009>014- 016>020-022>024-032>035. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ015. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ002. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...JH/PM SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PM

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