Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221706 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 106 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR- EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY COOL WEATHER ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LIMITING SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. THERE STILL EXISTS SHORT WAVES AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW THAT COULD PUSH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29 THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE ON THE OUTER RINGS OF THIS LOW MAY ALSO BRING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. UPDATE WAS TO LOWER POPS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN RAISE TO 30 PERCENT EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE CONFIDENT ON RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THAN ELSEWHERE. LACK OF RAIN THIS MORNING...CLEARING SKIES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO FORECAST HIGHS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE. AS OF 1020 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL ACTIVITY PULLS A BIT EASTWARD. WILL ADJUST POPS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER AREA WITH PRECIPITATION TO DEAL WITH WILL BE IN THE FAR WEST WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA IN BETWEEN...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AS THE LOW ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THE WINDS WILL RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WE CAN EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. .PREVIOUS AFD... THE GREATER INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION SHOULD BE THE WIND. 85H WINDS ARE PROGGED AROUND 40 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND 30 TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. EXPECTED WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. 6 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 MB THEN DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT...CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING THICKNESSES FROM THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUTTING A DAMPER ON ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM SOLAR INSOLATION. AS AN OCCLUDED LOW/NOR-EASTER DRIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY....SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS LOW AND TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ENOUGH IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE TO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY SIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST CAUSE THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. WILL SEE RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BELIEVE THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY BY DAWN FRIDAY THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO THE POINT WHERE A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MOST LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION DURING THE EVENING HOWEVER. SOME WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS SURVIVE TO REACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES...BRINGING LIGHT AND SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT RUN OR TWO OF THE MODELS. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO OUR AREA ASIDE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION BUILDS EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY... BECOMING ALIGNED OVER THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES...500MB HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...TRANSLATING INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER RIDGING THIS WEEKEND... PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK ANY RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. WITH NO LIFT AND/OR MOISTURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RUN WITH ZERO POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 105 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOR-EASTER THAT WILL PELT THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND WIND...AND WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT AIR TRAFFIC FOR MANY OF THE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WORK WEEK. FOR OUR LOCAL REGION...BKN-OVC CLOUD BASES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIFR CIGS FOR BLF AND MVFR AT LWB/BCB...VFR EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL APPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHEAST...BACKLASH WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT OUR REGION IN THE FORM OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. 3000- 5000FT AGL WINDS OF 40 KTS ARE PROGGED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH CLEARING IN THE EAST...MIXING WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND TERMINALS CAN EXPECT 20-30KT SURFACE GUSTS. WITH DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND REMAIN ALONG RIDGETOPS. INVERSION WILL BREAK TOMORROW MORNING WITH BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...KK/MBS/RCS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...RIDGE/RCS

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