Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 272048 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 348 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will continue to drift east off of the mid- Atlantic coast Monday evening, as a weak upper- level disturbance passes to the north. A warm front is expected to lift north through the area Tuesday followed prior to the arrival of a strong cold front late Wednesday. Cold high pressure will build in for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
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As of 330 PM EST Monday... High pressure will continue to drift to the east this evening, as a weak upper-level disturbance overspreads mid to upper level clouds into the region. Weak radar echo returns show up periodically, resulting in little to no ground-truthing precipitation. This is made possible by a rather deep SFC to 700mb dry layer, featured well on the KROA/KGSO 12z sounding. The cloud cover did serve a purpose though, limiting temperature potential, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Minor tweaks to the forecast made here, accounting for cooler temperatures in the west, with warmer conditions in the Piedmont Counties of VA/NC where the sun made a longer appearance. Expect winds to continue responding to the slipping high pressure center, shifting to more southerly flow Monday evening. 5 to 10 mph winds with a few periodic gusts may be possible, but things should settle down quickly after sunset. Expect the cloud shield to hold strong most of the overnight hours, with the exception of portions of Southeast West Virginia who may see a shot of drier air in the mid-levels aiding in their ability to clear out between midnight and sunrise. Early Tuesday, a warm front draped across northern GA into northern SC will begin to inch its way North. Patches of light rain is expected to spread northward along/southeast of the Blue Ridge by mid day. Through this portion of the forecast period, QPF will generally be just a few hundredths of an inch at best and generally confined to areas south-east of the Blue Ridge. Higher amounts will be possible later on Tuesday as convergence and isentropic lift combine along the western ridges. A few rumbles of thunder aren`t out of the question in these areas, but conditions won`t be ideal for large scale development this far east. Convection bleeding over from the Ohio Valley would be the best bet for late February storm lovers. For now, have left thunder out of the forecast, with just isolated/scattered showers and highest accumulations west of the Blue Ridge. Persistent cloud cover and warm conditions will remain the top weather story in the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EST Monday... Expect warm front lifting north across us late Tuesday night. Showers will be situated mainly over the mountains in the evening and as the warm front continues north look for drying a bit into the piedmont. Wednesday still looking a bit active with cold front moving from the Mississippi River Wed morning to the Blue Ridge by evening. Strong wind fields with this system will lead to threat of showers and thunderstorms with gusty to damaging winds. SPC still has our area in a slight risk. Timing is still looking like afternoon/evening starting by noon-2pm WV to 7-9pm piedmont. Once the line moves across moisture dissipates quickly so limited snow shower threat in WV Thursday morning. Best pressure rises post frontal will be Wednesday evening and again Thursday. At the moment seems winds should stay just below advisory levels, but could see some stronger gusts along the Blue Ridge Thursday. Some increase in clouds late in the northwest ahead of a southeast moving front with limited moisture late Thursday night. Will see lows near normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 330 AM EST Monday... Secondary shot of cooler air arrives with a mainly dry front from the northwest Friday. Appears best lift/moisture stays north across the Shenandoah Valley, so it will be mainly low chance pops of snow showers across the mountains of Southeast WV into the Alleghanys. Winds should speed up behind this system Friday afternoon but 8h wind stay under 50kts, and pressure rises are marginal, so most gusts will be under advisory levels. Expect high pressure overhead Saturday to provide close to normal highs for early March ranging from the lower to mid 50s over the area, with some 40s in the mountains. Keeping it dry Sunday with milder temperatures as high pressure moves southeast off the Southeast coast. A front enters the northern tier of the U.S. the slides southeast to the Ohio Valley by Monday. Will see warmer temperatures Sunday-Monday with shower chances increasing Monday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 650 AM EST Monday... A weak upper-level disturbance will move from the northern Georgia toward the Carolinas through this evening. Mid and high clouds will accompany this feature with possibly a few sprinkles across the Alleghanys today into tonight. Confidence remains low of with the general location of the drizzle, so kept TAFs clear of any wx mentions through the period. Cloud cover will consist of a relatively consistent BKN to OVC layer through the period, but ceilings should remain above 5k feet, keeping VFR conditions for the majority of the period. Hints of sub VFR conditions late in the TAF period, but have kept MVFR plus until distribution gets a little more finite in future updates. A dry lower-level air mass should limit fog development overnight, even with hints of the ceilings breaking just after midnight in the KROA/KLWB/KLYH area. With Canadian high pressure moving off to the east of the region, winds will come around to the SSW- SSE through the period, at speeds of 5-10 mph, with some sporadic low end gusts possible by afternoon. Extended Aviation Discussion... A warm front across the southeast states will lift northeast Tuesday before passing to the north of the area on Wednesday. An increase in low-level moisture will likely result in increased likelihood of MVFR cigs Tuesday evening0, especially along and near the Blue Ridge with moist southeast flow. A few light rain showers may also accompany the front. A cold front pushes east into the area Wednesday into Wednesday night with potential for more widespread MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. A west to east moving squall line with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms, perhaps a QLCS type convective configuration, will be possible late Wednesday into Wednesday evening in advance of the front. Strong northwest winds along with mountain sub-VFR in upslope low clouds and light precip will likely follow the front for much of Thursday. Expect downslope drying to return VFR to eastern locations by Thursday afternoon with this trend lingering across eastern sections through the end of the week. However another weak clipper area of low pressure looks to track just north of the region by Friday with possible mountain MVFR in at least upslope cloudiness, and possible light precipitation western ridges later Thursday night into Friday. && .CLIMATE... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Record warm Mins for March 1 Roanoke.....52 in 1918 Lynchburg...57 in 1910 Danville....51 in 2012 Blacksburg..45 in 1997 Bluefield...56 in 1997 Record highs for March 1 Roanoke.....76 in 1972 Lynchburg...78 in 1918 Danville....80 in 1972 Blacksburg..72 in 1976 Bluefield...78 in 1997 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM/RAB SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JM/RAB CLIMATE...AMS

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