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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 241741
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MORE SUMMER LIKE
WEATHER BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HARD PRESSED TO
LEAVE BUT DRIER AIR POURING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE THE SE WV MTNS STAY IN MORE
CLOUDS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED
BY 4PM AS BEST PRESSURE RISES AND CORE OF HIGHER WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST. WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT
TIMES.



PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY TODAY...WILL
LOOK LIKE SOMETHING WE MORE COMMONLY SEEN DURING THE WINTER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE MAY...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD LOWER NEW ENGLAND.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. WILL BE LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S FURTHER EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT TO PREVENT
FROST IN ALL BUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS...HOWEVER BELIEVE
THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REACH INTO BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES
TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...

DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS COLD 850MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT TO THE NE SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW REMAINS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE DC
METRO AREA BY SAT EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASED SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER SOME FROM
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD MORNING WITH LOWS OF FREEZING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHANYS...TO WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S WEST
AND LOWER 70S PIEDMONT...WITH SOME 50S DEFINITELY HANGING ON ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BATH AND GREENBRIER COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM
THE PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION IN INCREASINGLY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WAA. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE INTO SUN MORNING
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STRONG WAA ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WARMER AS WELL. THUS...DO NOT SEE ANY NEED FOR
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES SUN MORNING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RECOVER SUN AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY MON INTO TUE...A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
AND AMPLIFY FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTH ATLANTIC...NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION. OUR ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON A
SERIES OF NW FLOW DISTURBANCES SLATED TO RIDE OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MON-TUE PERIOD...BEFORE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO SHOVE THIS
CONVEYER BELT OF DISTURBANCES FURTHER NORTH TOWARD PA/NY. THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY TUE...AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR NW FLOW/MCS TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY TO RIDE SE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH QPF CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE SFC AIR MASS WILL BE
SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM THE ABNORMALLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE SUN-
MON...BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTIVITY DOWNSLOPES TOWARD THE ROANOKE
VALLEY. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT THERE...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING THIS PATTERN...SO IT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS BY MON-
TUE...AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 350 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRADE THE COOL UPPER TROUGH FOR A MAMMOTH RIDGE
THAT WILL OVERTAKE THE EASTERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT...IT WILL BE BACK
TO REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH THE THREAT
FOR AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 135 PM EDT FRIDAY...

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS WILL PERIST THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL SUNSET. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR WITH CIGS DROPPING INTO
MVFR WEST OF BLF-LWB. THINK THE CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING WITH DRY AIRMASS PUSHING IN.

HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND
THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL BE
GETTING TO MORE HUMID WEATHER AGAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM THREAT
BY TUESDAY AND FOG ISSUES AT NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-012>017-
     022.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ020.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB/WP