Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010516 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 116 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1015 PM EDT SUNDAY... RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN A QUICK ~0.5 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. RAPID UPDATE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT HOWEVER THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY SEE THE ODD SHOWER PASS ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER 1 AM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA OVERALL THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT ONLY SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY... AND WILL CAUSE IT TO STALL TO OUR WEST FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSES OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...MODELS SLOWER EDGING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHEAST. NOW LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COUNTY WARNING AREA WELL WITHIN THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT BY TUESDAY. THE WAVY SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LESS HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND LESS COOLING AT NIGHT. BIGGEST THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY... EVEN WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...CONSENSUS IN HAS THE CLOSED LOW IS A FAVORABLE POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LESS CERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION THERE WILL BE OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WPC WAS FORECASTING A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST IS IT POSSIBLE FOR A SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BE WEDGES IN OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COASTAL FRONT HELPING ENHANCE THE WEDGE. OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WET THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 105 AM EDT MONDAY... OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED SUCH AS KLWB...RUNNING WITH MAINLY VFR TO INIT OVERNIGHT GIVEN MOSTLY HIGHER BASED STRATO-CU AND MID DECK AROUND. HOWEVER EXPECTING MORE FOG TO FILL IN MAKING FOR PERIODS OF IFR IN THE VALLEYS WITH LIFR LIKELY TO PERSIST AT KLWB FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. CANT RULE OUT A SHRA OR TWO AROUND KDAN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER LATEST RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED COVERAGE NEARBY OTRW WILL KEEP OUT ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION OVERNIGHT FOR NOW. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AT KBLF OVERNIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING LIFR/IFR IN FOG/STRATUS BUT APPEAR OVERDONE SO WENT A BIT HIGHER WITH ONLY MVFR AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE ITS APPROACH ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS HINTING THAT THE FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA NEAR KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 02/00Z. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/ KROA WILL EXPERIENCE TSRA DURING THE 01/18Z TO 01/22Z TIMEFRAME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT KLYH/KDAN WILL EXPERIENCE TSRA AFTER 01/20Z. WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1SM WILL BE COMMON UNDER THE STRONGER CELLS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER LONGER TONIGHT ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY EDGES IN AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SHRA TO FADE WITH SOME FILLING IN OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THUS KEPT IN A VFR SHRA MENTION AT MOST LOCATIONS EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOWER CIGS MOUNTAINS AND MOSTLY VFR OUT EAST. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING MONDAY EVENING... WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK SUGGESTS LESS DRYING...WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/NF SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/AMS/NF

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