Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 051706 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1206 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 938 AM EST FRIDAY... DRY PUNCH ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER WAVE HAS BASICALLY CLEARED THINGS OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS SEEN OVER THE FAR NW. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ARRIVES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER COLD ESPCLY WEST GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW AND LITTLE CHANGE IN 85H TEMPS PER THE LINGERING TROUGH ALOFT UNTIL LATE. THUS LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FAR WEST GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AS EXPECT SOME SPOTS TO STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING...WITH ONLY SPOTS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LIKELY GETTING BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. OTHERWISE EXPIRED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SW SECTIONS AS FORECAST INVERSION LEVELS FROM THURSDAY WERE TOO LOW AS COMPARED TO OBSERVED MORNING RAOBS WHICH HAS ALLOWED LESS MIXING. ALSO PROGGED 85H JET A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER TO WEAKEN SO EXPECT OVERALL BLUSTERY COLD CONDITIONS MOUNTAINS BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERALL BY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 634 AM EST FRIDAY... FLURRIES TAPERING OFF IN THE PIEDMONT WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES PER UPSLOPE. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS ERODING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREA AND SHOULD SEE SUNSHINE AFTER 10AM. NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. KEEPING WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE...WILL SEE A BRIEF PEAK GUST BEHIND SHORTWAVE BETWEEN 12-15Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY MORNING... LIGHT SNOW...SOME SLEET/SNOW GRAINS BEING REPORTED FROM EAST OF ROANOKE SOUTH TO MOUNT AIRY AND PILOT MTN NC THIS MORNING...AND AS FAR EAST AS DANVILLE. DEFORMATION ZONE WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS SHOWING UP FAIRLY WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT AND MAIN SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SC/NC. THIS WAVE WILL WORK EAST OF US BY MID MORNING WITH PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SNOW HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SO OVERALL ANTICIPATING ONLY A COATING ON GRASSY SFCS/METAL OBJECTS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST TEMPS COLDER AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCH OR SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SE WV INTO NW NC...BUT WITH THE 8H FLOW BECOMING MORE ANTICYCLONIC APPEARS THE MOISTURE SHOULD DWINDLE TOWARD 12Z...SO A SHORT-LIVED NW FLOW EVENT...NOT HEADLINE WORTHY BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COAT ROADS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING. SEEMS ITS A MARGINAL EVENT GIVEN THE 8H FLOW TURNING MORE NNW...THOUGH THIS TYPE OF FLOW IF THE LOW LVL JET IS STRONG ENOUGH CAN CAUSE MORE ISSUES ON THE ERN SLOPE/DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SUCH AS FANCY GAP ON I-77. SINCE GUIDANCE AND LOCAL STUDY SUGGESTS A MARGINAL WIND EVENT AT BEST WITH GREATEST PRESSURE RISES STAYING SOUTH OF US AN 8H JET ONLY REACHING NEAR 40 KTS...WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY RUN AS IS. REST OF THE DAY WILL BECOME SUNNY BUT STAY SOMEWHAT BRISK...THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER MIDDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL JUST UNDER SEASONABLE NORMS WITH MID 40S EAST TO LOWER TO MID 30S WEST. TONIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW SWINGS BACK TO MORE WSW. ATTM...EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THOUGH THINK THE 00Z NAMDNG SHOWING MORE COVERAGE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEARS WATCHING. IF THIS OCCURS...TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER TEENS IN THE VALLEYS WITH 20 TO 25 OVER MOST OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 237 AM EST FRIDAY... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50F EAST. THIS TROUGH MAY BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERATING A SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. MODELS ARE KEEPING ALL THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SOME MOISTURE AND LIFT...THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ALONG THE TN/VA AND VA/NC BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM BECOMES OCCLUDED OVER BERMUDA...LEAVING THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP INTO THE 30S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO ENTER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY... THE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN MONDAY...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW WITHIN THIS TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN AROUND 522 DECAMETERS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C. BY MONDAY MORNING THE COASTAL LOW IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR ON TUESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT WITH HOW FAST THE TROF LIFTS OUT AND THE COLDER AIR MASS MODERATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1145 AM EST FRIDAY... OTHER THAN FOR GUSTY NW WINDS...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN BUT WILL LIKELY STILL SEE GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ALONG THE RIDGES ESPCLY KROA VICINITY. VFR THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNDER LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID/HIGH CANOPY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR LOOKS TO LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE EAST AND SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP SUB- VFR OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN LOWER CIGS AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG NW FLOW KICKS IN. A MIX OF MVFR/VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE LIMITING CLOUD COVER FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1040 AM EST FRIDAY... MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER AROUND RANDOLPH AND AT SOUTH BOSTON ON THE DAN RIVER. THESE RIVERS ARE CRESTING OR HAVE CRESTED AND WILL BE DROPPING BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST WBCFLSRNK PRODUCT FOR ADDED DETAILS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...JH/WP HYDROLOGY...JH/WP

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