Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 192333 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 733 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak shortwave will move east across our region tonight into Wednesday. Jose should track north, off the east coast tonight through Tuesday, before sliding just east of New England on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 700 PM Tuesday... Afternoon and evening shower coverage remained extremely isolated to the higher elevations Tuesday, with a weakening trend expected to continue after sunset. Upstream shower activity continues to stay well west of the forecast area thanks to a stubborn layer of dry air in the mid levels, with only decaying cloud debris noted spreading east into the Appalachians by nightfall. Previously Valid Discussion... High pressure will remain across our area this afternoon into tonight. Our forecast area will remain under dry air aloft between Hurricane Jose passing well offshore and the next upstream axis of deeper moisture associated with a cluster of mid level shortwave energy in the Midwest. A weak surface cold front to the northwest slowly edging east towards the mountains late tonight. Low level moisture and light winds will result in patches of fog especially in the valleys. Low temperatures tonight will range from the the mid 50s in the mountains to the mid 60s in the piedmont. Wednesday will feature another warm afternoon with high temperatures from around 70 degrees in the northwest mountains to the mid 80s in the Piedmont. Shortwave will slide east across the area and be enhanced by diurnal heating. The cap will weaken enough to allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and west of the Blue Ridge mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 248 PM EDT Tuesday... A rather quiet weather pattern with little change in the low level/upper level features. Will be relying on daytime heating and weak upper impulses, along with some weak low level convergence for isolated to scattered showers/storms Thursday-Friday afternoons. Will seem more like summer like pattern though not as hot, but temps will still run 3 to 10 degrees above normal. Lows will run from the mid to upper 50s mountains, to lower to mid 60s foothills/piedmont and Roanoke. Highs mainly upper 70s/around 80 west, with mid 80s east. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday... Surface and upper ridge will be sandwiched between tropical systems off the east coast and strong upper trough over the central/western U.S. this period. Will see how Hurricane Maria evolves and tracks northward off the east coast next week, depending on how Jose moves/weakens and if the upper ridge pushes further off the mid- Atlantic coast. At present, models in decent agreement keeping us on the warm and dry side. Highs and lows will continue to range about 3 to 8 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Tuesday... Mainly VFR East of the Blue Ridge tonight, with IFR VSBYs possible at LWB/BCB just before sunrise. MVFR to brief IFR conditions possible at BLF also thanks to potential fog formation. Sticking with a primarily persistence type forecast overnight tonight, with little in the way of airmass change compared to previous nights expected. A wild card tonight will be potential cloud cover, introduced thanks to a weak impulse pushing across the Ohio River Valley. Trend has these residual showers and clouds burning off before spilling east of the Blue Ridge, but a SCT to BKN deck could delay BR/FG formation in LWB/BLF/BCB by an hour or two. Otherwise, expect gentle downsloping winds east of the Blue Ridge, keeping conditions quiet for any overnight flying. Showers are expected to be a bit more numerous tomorrow across the higher elevations. Should remained scattered in coverage at most, but an introduction of SHRA or brief dips to MVFR Ceilings in the localized downpours will not be out of the question in the mountains. Have left these out at specific sites for now thanks to lower confidence. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast to prevail for the rest of the upcoming week into the weekend with strengthening high pressure remaining in place between exiting Jose offshore and a weak cold front approaching from the west. This should maintain good flying weather outside of early morning fog/stratus through late next week, with only isolated to scattered diurnal showers possible Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon as upper level energy slides across. Isolated MVFR convection is possible Friday in the southwest mountains. Dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/KK NEAR TERM...JM/KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JM/KK

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