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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 210518
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
118 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool north to northwesterly wind can be expected through
Monday.  An area of low pressure developing over Texas
is expected to move east, and pass south of our region Sunday.
This wet weather system will bring clouds back across our
region with an opportunity for rain as far north as the
North Carolina, Virginia border. The low will move off the
coast Sunday night, skies clearing.  Dry weather
is expected Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures the next few
days will be cooler than normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 755 PM EDT Saturday...

Quick update to the forecast to reflect increasing high clouds
per latest satellite imagery, as well as temperature trends as
daytime heating has ended. Dry air moving in from the northwest
will support a 2-3 degree drop in temperatures over the next
several hours on our way to the coolest night we`ll have
experienced in several days, and more typical of mid-April.
Folks used to the summer-like weather of the past several days
may want to dress warmer this evening if spending time outdoors.


As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Increasing clouds tonight.

2) Cloudy Sunday with rain possible along and south of the North
Carolina, Virginia border.

3) Temperatures cooler than normal.

In general expecting fair weather through tonight...temperatures
cooling quickly after sunset. Lows tonight should dip into the
upper 30s in the mountains and into the lower to mid 40s across
the piedmont...clear skies early promoting good radiational
cooling conditions...dewpoints now low enough to no longer
support overnight warmth.

Clouds will increase during the overnight in response to low
pressure developing over the southern states and moving
northeast along remnant cold front to our south Sunday. This
will result in thickening cloud cover over our region with rain
spreading northeast through the southern Appalachians and
reaching the VA/NC border mid-morning Sunday. Models keep the
deepest moisture suppressed to our south, but do think we see
some form or light rain as far north as Highway 58, albeit
light.

Clouds on Sunday will maintain the cool temperatures...highs
struggling to get any warmer than the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:
1) Clearing Sunday night with patchy frost.

2) Dry Monday

Sunday night, low pressure to our south will pass off the
southeast Atlantic Coast. Skies will begin to clear with some
lingering cloudiness over the Carolinas where it rains Sunday.
Where the skies do clear, watch for patchy frost, especially in
the mountains where low temperatures are forecast in the lower
30s. Some of the mountain valleys (such as Burkes Garden) may
dip into the upper 20s. The growing season has not officially
started in the mountains, but just be aware that frost is
possible in these areas Sunday night.

After a cold start Monday morning, temperatures should rebound
into the 55-65 degree range for Monday afternoon...High
pressure providing fair weather to start the work week. Another
cool night is expected Monday night with patchy frost a
possibility again in the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

 - Light rain chances Wednesday and again on Friday

High pressure will give way to a cold front approaching from the
west Tuesday. Low levels will remain dry and with zonal flow loft,
the atmosphere will saturate from the top-down. Thin cirrus will not
stop the area from warming into the 60s across the mountains to low
to mid 70s east of the Blue Ridge.

Prefrontal showers will move across the mountains early Wednesday
morning, then over the foothills and piedmont from mid morning into
early afternoon. Despite having southwest flow over the area
Wednesday, high pressure blocking Gulf moisture will limit rainfall
amounts to a couple of hundredths of an inch. The cold front will
move across the area during the day, exiting the piedmont by the
evening commute. Temperatures will vary from the 50s along western
slopes to mid 70s in the piedmont.

Following the frontal passage, colder than normal temperatures
expected Thursday with highs from the upper 50s to upper 60s. The
center of the surface ridge will move off the coast Friday. A warm
front will then move over the western edge of the ridge Friday
afternoon, increase isentropic lift and along with overrunning
moisture will bring a chance for rain to the area into Friday night.
At this time, models are showing a progressive warm front with the
ridge moving farther out to sea. Therefore, forecast temperatures
for Saturday are in the 70s. However, rain may help develop an
insitu wedge east of the Blue Ridge. This weak and shallow wedge
could break in the afternoon, sending temperatures as forecasted. If
this wedge is stronger and deeper, highs Saturday may only be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 116 AM EDT Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 22/06Z valid TAF
period.

Mainly mid and high clouds to cover the skies at times through
the period. Exception being light rain and potential MVFR at
KDAN late this morning through mid afternoon.

Winds will generally be out of a northwest to northeast
direction north of a front through the period and light, except
for a few gusts later today at BLF/LWB.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Drier air will return Sunday night and Monday as high pressure
builds eastward across the Mid Atlantic to provide good flying
weather through Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive during
Tuesday night into Wednesday to bring the next potential for
MVFR ceilings and rain showers in the mountains. Thursday looks
dry and supporting of VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/PM/WP