Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 020137 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 937 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING...BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WASHING OUT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS BACK UP OVER THE EAST BY FRIDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD US THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 850 PM EDT MONDAY... OTHER FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA PASSING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED THIS EVENING AS SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING ALOFT WITHIN A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS ALONG WITH LACK OF DEEP INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND PERHAPS OUT EAST. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST HRRR TRACKING THE CURRENT ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER GREENBRIER EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY...WILL LEAVE IN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH SINCE HEADING INTO SOME DECENT LEFTOVER CAPE DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE SOME LOW CHANCES FAR NW LATE FOR ACTIVITY COMING IN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK. OTRW FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO INCLUDE A BIT OF FOG AND BUMP UP TEMPS IN SPOTS GIVEN SUCH A MUGGY OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A FRONT SHIFTING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PASSES ACROSS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN CWA WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE MORNING BUT AGAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LOOKS FEEBLE. THERE IS GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY 18Z TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WAVE AND THE FRONT ITSELF WILL EDGE CLOSER TOWARD TUE EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. TUESDAY WILL BE HOT...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO SEND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S EAST...AND LOWER TO MID 80S WEST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 224 PM EDT MONDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED DEW POINT FRONT AND DRIER AIR IS LAGGING WAY BEHIND AND DOES NOT ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DEW POINT FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE DEW POINT FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THIS SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FLOW IS WEAK ALOFT...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVERRUN THIS RIDGE/INSITU WEDGE TO PRODUCE A LOW STRATUS DECK AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 248 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE REPLACED BY A LEE TROUGH. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF STATE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MAY BRING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL HELP SPARK CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THIS SHORT WAVE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND A LEE TROUGH. FOR THE WEEKEND...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY (GFS) OR SUNDAY (ECM). WITH A STUBBORN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...FAVORING THE SLOWER ECM RUN. PREFRONTAL OR DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. NOT QUITE SURE IF THE FRONT WILL COMPLETE CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HANG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY... OVERALL VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT UNDER DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT KLWB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT LIKELY TO DISSIPATE CROSSING THE RIDGES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION WITH JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND. WELL MIXED LOW LEVELS FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY TO INHIBIT MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR AT KLYH/KDAN THAT SHOULD STAY EAST OF ANY UPSTREAM MID DECK THAT MAY ARRIVE OVER THE WEST TOWARD DAWN. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VALLEY FOG AT KLWB/KBCB JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE ANY ADDED CLOUDS PUSH EAST. THUS WENT WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT KLWB/KBCB FOR FOG ALTHOUGH FORECAST FOG STABILITY VALUES SHOW ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE AT BEST. UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER MAY SEE A MORE ORGANIZED BAND DROP IN FROM THE NW WITH THE LEADING PRE- FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SO INCLUDING A VCTS MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VA SITES AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LATE AT KBCB. OTRW EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR AFTER EARLY MID DECK ERODES AND SCATTERED-BROKEN CU FIELDS BETWEEN 4-6K FT TAKE SHAPE WITH HEATING. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FRONT SETTLES CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHEN BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS POINT PENDING PRE-FRONTAL COVERAGE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW APPEARS MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WEDNESDAY...THEN PERIODS OF MVFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE ISOLATED NATURE COVERAGE. FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEN PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC MVFR IN MORE ORGANIZED COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE. OTRW WILL SEE A DAILY TREND OF EARLY MVFR/IFR IN FOG...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF VFR...THEN INCREASING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHEN MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY ... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. A PART HAS BEEN BACK-ORDERED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...JH/RAB/WP EQUIPMENT...RAB

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