Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 300559 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 159 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 635 PM EDT MONDAY... AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SKIES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. SHORT WAVE OVER WEST VIRGINIA ALONG WITH SOME HEATING AS THE CLOUDS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA HAVE TRIGGERED SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS. STRATIFORM RAIN HAS EXITED THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE LOWERED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST NOW THAT THIS RAIN HAD MOVED OUT. FOR THE OVERNIGHT CLEARING SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FORMATION OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONFIDENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS FORECAST TO GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...THE STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST MOVING OUT TO SEA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE NOW SUGGESTING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...NORTH OF I64...LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO TREND HIGHER PENDING FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS TEMPS TONIGHT WHICH ARE COMING IN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAYS NUMBERS LOOK WARM...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY OK. IF THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH IS OVERLY STRONG IT WILL RESULT IN BACKING FLOW AT THE SURFACE PRODUCING A WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CAST...WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...TESTING 80 AT ROA/LYH/DAN. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY... A CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF SHORE WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE BLUE RIDGE. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW DRIZZLE TO FALL ALONG EASTERN SLOPES AND FOG TO FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS COOL FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND COULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM REACH NORMAL LEVELS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE EVEN FASTER TODAY WITH THE FRONT WITH RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING...DRYING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY 08P/00Z. SINCE MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO RUN FRONTS FAST IN THE FALL...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST TIMING OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WILL INCREASE POPS AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND A PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE AXIS SATURDAY MORNING...A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION...SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND LESS BREEZY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF SHOWERS ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA. IF SHOWERS CAN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...SOUTHSIDE COULD SEE 80F BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. SINCE RAIN WILL ARRIVE EARLY ACROSS THE WEST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO 70F. FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY... DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ROA/BLF. THERE WILL BE TIMES WHERE VSBYS WILL JUMP TO IFR/MVFR BUT MOST OF THE TIME IT SHOULD STAY 1/2SM OR LOWER. THIS FOG WILL BE DISSIPATING IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME WITH VFR EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH PERIOD OF LIFR LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEY AIRPORTS...KBCB...KLWB...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE DENSE RIVER FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK EACH MORNING. THE NEXT THREAT FOR SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL COME WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE VFR ALTHOUGH SOME UPSLOPE MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT LWB/BLF. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ009-010- 012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047. NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001>004- 018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AMS/PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...MBS/PM/WP

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