Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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285 FXUS61 KRNK 030540 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 140 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS 900 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR VA/NC ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN WV AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. AS OF 900 PM...LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM LYNCHBURG VA TO WILKESBORO NC. MAIN THREAT GOING FORWARD IS PRIMARILY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. STRONGER CELL CORES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING...VIL TRENDS ARE DOWN. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUING TO WANE. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT FORWARD MOVEMENT OF LINE WILL SLOW RESULTING IN TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF WE ISSUE A WARNING OR TWO FOR FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HEALTHY SLUG OF WATER IS GOING TO DRAIN INTO THE DAN RIVER BASIN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT RISE ALONG THE DAN RIVER TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY CLEARING WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION...SO AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNRISE TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATE WENDESDAY...TEMPERATURES FAVOR EARLY MAY NORMALS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TUMBLE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... CUTOFF WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUR TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS SO LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS BUT STILL RESEMBLING SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE...THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGIONWIDE FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS MOUNT ROGERS...MAY EVEN TOY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. FOR THE WEEKEND...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A POP-UP SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...REMOVED SHOWER THREAT FOR ALL BUT THE WV HIGHLANDS. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT MONDAY, SO MAINTAINED CHANCE THREAT MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 140 AM EDT TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT KLYH AND KDAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOST TAF SITES ARE AT VFR NOW...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST AS ANY CLEARING FROM THE RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. SOME IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE DETERIORIATING FLYING WEATHER IS QUESTIONABLE. TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO MVFR...WHILE THE PIEDMONT MAY REACH VFR FASTER. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY REACHES THE EAST COAST...AND BRINGS MORE SHOWERS FOR KLYH AND KDAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS CERTAINLY MUCH WEAKER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...WHICH RESULTS IN THUNDER BEING LEFT OUT OF THESE TAFS DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE. MEANWHILE...AN UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR KBLF AND KLWB BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT IMPEDE CONDITIONS TOO MUCH. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW ALL TAF SITES TO RETURN TO VFR. HOWEVER...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE HUDSON BAY IN CANADA...SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER POOR DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PERIODIC SHOWERS...LOW CEILINGS...AND PATCHY FOG. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PW

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