Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290828 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 428 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND FRONT AND CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY... THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY SINCE MIDNIGHT BUT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS STILL HAD GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. LOCAL PROFILER CONTINUED TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.10 INCH. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO A LARGE TEMPERATURE RISE. IN ADDITION...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. HAVE ADJUSTED ONSET TIME OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL 03Z/11PM AND INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD 12Z/8AM. MODELS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING ABOVE 0.50 INCH. HAVE KEPT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AND INCH. WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BUFKIT SHOWED STRONGEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND REMAINING ABOVE THE INVERSION. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY... EXPECT TO START MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA... TRIGGERING A BROKEN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT WEST NORTHWESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...LACKING THE COLDER CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES WE HAVE ALL BECOME FAMILIAR WITH OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. AS SUCH...AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE DECREASING CLOUD COVER HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING LATE MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S WEST...TO THE UPPER 60S EAST...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DURING TUESDAY EVENING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS LOWER NEW ENGLAND...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...PUSHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGING AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WINDS WILL SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...AND MAY SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUSHES UPSLOPE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE PUSHING NWD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PER SE FLOW. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT... LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLY EWD EXTENT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA PER FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC EARLY ON IN THE DAY...BEFORE VEERING WINDS TURN MORE SW. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MILD BUT COULD BE COOLER PER MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. IF THE HIGH SLOWS DOWN OR SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH...THUS ALLOWING LONGER EASTERLY FETCH...THEN TEMPS COULD BE 5- 10 DEGREES COOLER OUT EAST....BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL. AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY THE FORECAST VARIES...THOUGH THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SIMILAR SETUP THAT THE 12Z GFS DOES WITH FRONT ORIENTATION SETTING UP IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION WITH PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS GOING TO KEEP THE AREA IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH NEXT MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY ARRIVING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER LOW MOVING MORE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAKER LOW MOVING ACROSS WV INTO NRN VA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS SUCH HAS LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. NONETHELESS THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COLD THOUGH THE ECWMF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND COLDER THAN THE GFS. COULD SEE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY AFTER 00Z/8PM. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE DRIVEN MVFR CIGS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY... RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29: ROANOKE......19 IN 1982 BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001 LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982 DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966 BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982 LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS CLIMATE...AMS/SK

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