Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 190301 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1101 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EAST OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1100 PM EDT THURSDAY... BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MAINTAINED THREAT FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT PER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE IS BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME THUS SUPPORTING MENTION OF SPOTTY -RA/DZ. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE L-M50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WEDGE SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CREATE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LIMITED...AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH MIXING MAY ERASE DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND RAISED POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH AREAS KEEPING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM EDT THURSDAY... MODEL TRENDS HAVE SPED UP THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY NOW INSTEAD OF MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO WEDGE SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER CLOUDY SKY CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND EITHER SIDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SKIES CLEAR OUT SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH MAIN LIFT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WV SUNDAY NIGHT..AND COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS HERE. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL CHANCE OF PRECIP IS 20/30...HIGHER INTO WV. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL MODIFY TO SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT THURSDAY... THIS PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY AND COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREAS AS FLOW BACKS ALOFT SOME. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST PUSHES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TUE- WED. TEMPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COOL DOWN SOME...BUT NOT LOOKING AS CHILLY AS EARLIER THOUGHT...WITH 8H TEMPS +10-12C. HIGHS WILL RUN FROM THE 60S WEST TO 70S EAST...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY... FAIRLY CLASSIC WEDGE SETUP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY WITH ATTENDANT LOWERING CIGS AND PATCHES TO AREAS OF -DZ BR...ESPECIALLY ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NC...AND ARE ALREADY SPREADING WEST INTO CENTRAL VA. MEANWHILE...MID CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT. WITH EAST FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI IN RESPONSE TO 1030MB SFC HIGH SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST...ANTICIPATION IS FOR CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE...WITH LOCALLY IFR CIGS THROUGH THE BLUE RIDGE AND WEST TOWARD THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. PATCHES OF -DZ COULD DEVELOP IN BETTER UPSLOPE AREAS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SUCH FOR BLF/LWB/BCB/ROA...BUT NOT FOR THE PIEDMONT. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...LITTLE IF ANY RADIATIONAL FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH LWB AND BCB IN THE EVENT THAT MID CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THAT SUCH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE...HAVE OPTED AGAINST ADVERTISING ANY LIFR FG CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL LIFT SOME DURING THE DAY FRI...OVERALL LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR MOST SITES ALL DAY...BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR AFT 15Z. WINDS BECOMING ENE-ESE OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5-7KTS...INCREASING TO 7-10KTS AFT 14Z FRI. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW END GUSTS IN USUALLY FAVORED SOUTHEAST WIND AREAS...SUCH AS BLF...AFT 15Z FRI. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WEDGE SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SUN WITH -SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED AND SO IS DEEP MOISTURE. WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST AT THE SAME TIME...WE MAY BE IN A STRONG SUBSIDENCE AREA AND SEE LITTLE MORE THAN -SHRA OR SPRINKLES EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR-PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS SUN-EARLY MON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY NW FLOW. THUS...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCAL EARLY MORNING MVFR-IFR FOG CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/KK/RAB

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