Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 230006 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 806 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR- EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BACKLASH FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...AND COOL NORTHWEST WINDS. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING THEN DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SHORT WAVES TRACKING AROUND THE CENTER WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE RNK PIEDMONT...EAST OF HWY 29...INTO THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER RINGS ARE LACKING MOISTURE BUT WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO AS THIS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS TODAY HAVE KEPT WINDS SPEEDS DOWN A BIT BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY. DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SHOULD START MIXING DOWN AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY AS THE INVERSION LOWERS/BREAKS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. DOWNSLOPING FLOW HELPED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD WARM THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO THE M/U 60S THURSDAY. COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE M/U 50S. A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 30S. WITH OVERNIGHT MIXING...NO FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISHING...SKIES CLEARING. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LAGS THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...MODELS INDICATING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY...AND SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA BUT NO QPF. CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...AGAIN NO QPF. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...READINGS SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM. THERE IS A SURGE OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 745 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...BUT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA LATE THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL PULL AWAY THIS EVENING...LEAVING JUST A FEW-SCT VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THAT REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT BLF...WITH MVFR CIGS AT LWB...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT BCB. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THU...WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MVFR AT WORST ANYWHERE AND CIGS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME SCT LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY VFR VSBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF CIGS AT BLF DROP BELOW 005...SOME MVFR BR CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS...REMAINING NW BUT DIMINISHING IN SPEED OVERALL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THU 14Z- 22Z FOR CONTINUED NW 8-12KTS GUSTS 18-25KTS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...E.G...ROA/BLF/BCB/DAN. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSYBS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...RAB/SR

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