Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 150806 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 406 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm development is possible today ahead and along an approaching cold front. Disturbances will progress through the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday with mainly gusty and colder conditions the impact on our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1. Showers and storms ahead of a cold front could push into the western CWA early this morning though weakening is expected. 2. Coverage of showers and storms could increase during the day closer to the approaching front though rainfall amounts look to be low. Convective cluster to the west has been persistent though has shown signs of weakening/losing structure and CAM consensus agrees on this trend as it approaches the western CWA in the next few hours. This feature is well ahead of the sfc cold front which currently looks to be back in Ohio/Indiana. While the front may take it`s time under mainly zonal flow aloft, the deep layer moisture and perhaps a weak disturbance could allow for some redevelopment of convection during the day today. Progged SBCAPE could get near 500 J/kg along with daytime heating but this may be limited with any persistent cloud coverage/solar sheltering. All this being said, it`s possible some of the area could have a lull or skip in development while the Piedmont may get a bit greater chance later today if they are spared from some of the remnant clouds. There is more certainty on the decrease of pops going into this evening as the drier airmass behind the front finally advects SEWD. Some low stratocu could fill in to allow for a cool cloudy start to the weekend, though quickly scattering/mixing out after the morning. Confidence of shower/storm coverage today is low to medium.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 220 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1. Quieter weather Saturday through late Sunday. 2. Colder temperatures for the beginning of the work week. By Saturday morning, the front will be situated across the southeastern US, and drier air will fill into the area, bringing an end to any lingering rain showers. This airmass will be cooler as well, so high temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees cooler than the past few days, but still warmer than normal. By the end of the weekend and the start of the work week, the 500mb pattern will become more amplified, with a closed low meandering over the southwest and an upper trough digging into the Great Lakes and Midwest. A surface low will track across southern Canada, and its associated cold front will drop into the area Sunday into Monday. Northwesterly flow behind this front will bring much colder air southward into the region, so temperatures will drop towards freezing Sunday night into Monday morning. With fetch off the Great Lakes, there may be enough moisture to generate some upslope rain and snow showers for the mountains of southeast West Virginia. Gusty northwest winds are expected with this frontal passage with a tightening pressure gradient and strong cold air advection. The strongest gusts will be in the higher elevations along and west of the Blue Ridge. Behind the front, surface high pressure starts to expand eastward into the Mid Atlantic from the central US, keeping the weather quiet for the beginning of the work week.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 235 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1. Colder temperatures for the start of the week, warming trend after Tuesday. 2. Dry and quiet weather expected through this forecast period. The upper level pattern starts to become more zonal over the eastern US by the middle of the work week, leading to increasing 500mb heights and kicking off a warming trend in temperatures. The upper low that had been sitting over the southwest will cross the Rockies and deepen over the south central US by later in the work week. Surface high pressure will move eastward and become centered over the southeastern states and expand into the Mid Atlantic, keeping the weather dry and quiet over the area for much of the week. The airmass will moderate through the week, and temperatures will climb back towards seasonal normals. As the upper low deepens over the southern Plains, a surface low will develop and track eastward through the week. This southern system will bring the next chance of precipitation to the area, towards the end of the work week, although outside of this forecast period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... A complex of thunderstorms along and ahead of an approaching cold front could hold together and impact LYH and BLF early this morning so will keep monitor if changes to the forecast are warranted. Otherwise showers and possible TSRA later this morning into afternoon with cigs mainly 4-10 kft then mainly MVFR cigs this evening into overnight behind the front and precip (possibly lower cigs and VSBYs for LYH and BLF). Winds today SW to west increasing 9-14 kts and possible gusts near 20 kts, then becoming more NW under 10 kts for this evening/overnight. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is medium. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Saturday through Saturday night, VFR conditions will prevail. Sunday into Monday, increasing and gusty northwest winds will bring a return of some sub-VFR clouds to the Southeast West Virginia mountains, along with isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...AB SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...SH/AB

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