Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 150806
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
406 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm development is possible today ahead and
along an approaching cold front. Disturbances will progress
through the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday with mainly
gusty and colder conditions the impact on our region.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Showers and storms ahead of a cold front could push into the
western CWA early this morning though weakening is expected.
2. Coverage of showers and storms could increase during the day
closer to the approaching front though rainfall amounts look to
be low.
Convective cluster to the west has been persistent though has
shown signs of weakening/losing structure and CAM consensus
agrees on this trend as it approaches the western CWA in the
next few hours. This feature is well ahead of the sfc cold
front which currently looks to be back in Ohio/Indiana. While
the front may take it`s time under mainly zonal flow aloft, the
deep layer moisture and perhaps a weak disturbance could allow
for some redevelopment of convection during the day today.
Progged SBCAPE could get near 500 J/kg along with daytime
heating but this may be limited with any persistent cloud
coverage/solar sheltering. All this being said, it`s possible
some of the area could have a lull or skip in development while
the Piedmont may get a bit greater chance later today if they
are spared from some of the remnant clouds. There is more
certainty on the decrease of pops going into this evening as the
drier airmass behind the front finally advects SEWD. Some low
stratocu could fill in to allow for a cool cloudy start to the
weekend, though quickly scattering/mixing out after the morning.
Confidence of shower/storm coverage today is low to medium.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 220 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Quieter weather Saturday through late Sunday.
2. Colder temperatures for the beginning of the work week.
By Saturday morning, the front will be situated across the
southeastern US, and drier air will fill into the area, bringing an
end to any lingering rain showers. This airmass will be cooler as
well, so high temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees cooler
than the past few days, but still warmer than normal. By the end of
the weekend and the start of the work week, the 500mb pattern will
become more amplified, with a closed low meandering over the
southwest and an upper trough digging into the Great Lakes and
Midwest. A surface low will track across southern Canada, and its
associated cold front will drop into the area Sunday into Monday.
Northwesterly flow behind this front will bring much colder air
southward into the region, so temperatures will drop towards
freezing Sunday night into Monday morning. With fetch off the Great
Lakes, there may be enough moisture to generate some upslope rain
and snow showers for the mountains of southeast West Virginia.
Gusty northwest winds are expected with this frontal passage with a
tightening pressure gradient and strong cold air advection. The
strongest gusts will be in the higher elevations along and west of
the Blue Ridge. Behind the front, surface high pressure starts to
expand eastward into the Mid Atlantic from the central US, keeping
the weather quiet for the beginning of the work week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 235 AM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1. Colder temperatures for the start of the week, warming trend
after Tuesday.
2. Dry and quiet weather expected through this forecast period.
The upper level pattern starts to become more zonal over the eastern
US by the middle of the work week, leading to increasing 500mb
heights and kicking off a warming trend in temperatures. The upper
low that had been sitting over the southwest will cross the Rockies
and deepen over the south central US by later in the work week.
Surface high pressure will move eastward and become centered over
the southeastern states and expand into the Mid Atlantic, keeping
the weather dry and quiet over the area for much of the week. The
airmass will moderate through the week, and temperatures will climb
back towards seasonal normals.
As the upper low deepens over the southern Plains, a surface low
will develop and track eastward through the week. This southern
system will bring the next chance of precipitation to the area,
towards the end of the work week, although outside of this forecast
period.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...
A complex of thunderstorms along and ahead of an approaching
cold front could hold together and impact LYH and BLF early this
morning so will keep monitor if changes to the forecast are
warranted. Otherwise showers and possible TSRA later this
morning into afternoon with cigs mainly 4-10 kft then mainly
MVFR cigs this evening into overnight behind the front and
precip (possibly lower cigs and VSBYs for LYH and BLF). Winds
today SW to west increasing 9-14 kts and possible gusts near 20
kts, then becoming more NW under 10 kts for this
evening/overnight.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is medium.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Saturday through Saturday night, VFR conditions will prevail.
Sunday into Monday, increasing and gusty northwest winds will
bring a return of some sub-VFR clouds to the Southeast West
Virginia mountains, along with isolated to scattered rain/snow
showers.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.
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.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
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SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SH/AB