Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 231657 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1257 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL STRENGTHEN INTO A NOR- EASTER THAT WILL PELT NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WARMING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD WITH 60S EAST BEING AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...50S LIKELY...LOWER END ON WESTERN SLOPES WHO WILL HANG ON TO CLOUDS LONGER TO UPPER 50S IN AREAS CLEARING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. IF THE WINDS DIMINISH QUICK ENOUGH...TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY FROST FOR DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF LIMITED COVERAGE OF ANY FROST...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST HEADLINES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH AWAY. EXPECT TO START THE DAY WITH PASSING HIGH THIN CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER FOR MOST OF OUR AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY HIGHS...AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST. MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF FROST DEVELOP IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS MAY STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH ELSEWHERE TO KEEP FROST MORE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE. FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT A FEW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASED MIXING DUE TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TO KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT GUSTY START TO THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD...PASSING JUST EAST OF OUR AREA BY DAWN MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF FROST NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON TO WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH VFR CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/PM NEAR TERM...NF/RCS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...RCS

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