


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --714 FXUS61 KRNK 081437 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1037 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A warm moist airmass will allow for daily shower and thunderstorm chances. An approaching front from the northwest stalls to the north today through the rest of the week, which will allow for an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1) Hot, with a Heat Advisory in effect for part of Southside VA and the NC Piedmont. 2) Scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Keeping the heat advisory in place, though may have enough mixing to keep the heat index below 105, but since its close do not plan on changing it now. Still stifling heat/humidity will make for an unpleasant afternoon to work/play outdoors. As for storms, we are currently fairly clear. Will see cumulus develop by midday, with convective allowing models showing storm development in the noon-2pm time frame along the mountains, then shifting/spreading slowly east/northeast through the afternoon. Not much to hang your hat on for coverage, and looks like a pattern more scattered than numerous. Highest chances look to be north over the Alleghanys into WV closer to better upper support. This is also indicated in the latest RAP/FV3/ARW. A few storms could become strong/severe, thanks to steep low- level lapse rates and high-water content suggesting damaging downbursts, especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. Previous discussion... Heat will be the main concern today, with abnormally high temperatures over the area at the surface and aloft. With temperatures in the low to upper 80s for the mountains, and the low to mid 90s for the Piedmont, along with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat index values of over 100 are expected over Southside VA and parts of the NC Piedmont. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued for this area beginning at 10 AM and ending tonight. We remain in southwest flow aloft today and tonight, with a trough from central Canada down to TX, and ridging over the desert SW and the western Atlantic. There will be only weak positive vorticity aloft moving through this afternoon, but with temperatures in the 80s and 90s (about 5 to 10 degrees above normal) and dew points in the 60s and 70s, resultant instability will trigger showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A pre-frontal/lee trough along the Blue Ridge will also encourage storm development. The best instability will be over the far SE NC/VA Piedmonts, with another smaller area over the WV/VA border area. Poor lapse rates, shear, and kinematic support will mean storms will be weak and garden variety. Still, if instability reaches 2500-3000 J/kg over Southside VA and the NC Piedmont, we could see some briefly severe storms with damaging winds, although forecast soundings show skinny CAPE through the column. Moderate to heavy rain will remain an issue, with storm motions around 15 to 20 mph. Dense fog will be possible in the usual mountain and river valleys late tonight into Wednesday morning. Lows will be in the 60s to low 70s. Confidence in the near term is high.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 240 AM EDT TUESDAY... Key Messages: 1) Daily pulse convection A classic summertime stalled front will take up residence just to the north of the forecast area. This will leave us on the southern warm and humid side of the boundary. As a series of short waves move along the boundary through the week, it will work in tandem with the already existent instability to force mainly pulse-type single cellular convection. Modest shear may allow a few storms to become more organized and sustained long enough to form a small multicell system. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday, and given a similar atmospheric setup through the end of the week, it is entirely within the realm of possibility to be alert for severe thunderstorms each afternoon/evening in this forecast period. In addition, the daily nature of convection brings concerns of localized flooding, as any particular area that receives heavy rain multiple days in a row could experience flooding due to saturated ground.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 300 AM EDT TUESDAY... Key Messages: 1) Showers and storms continue 2) Frontal passage early next week changes pattern The situation described in the short term discussion will last through most of the weekend, as no progressive system passes through to cause a change in pattern or air mass. There are signals pointing towards a cold front moving through the Midwest and into the OH River Valley late Sunday or early next week. This would pick up the stationary front and give us a change in airmass from the hot and humid. Another round of showers would be associated with the front, but then a period of quieter weather would likely follow. There is considerable uncertainty in this front`s timing and impacts on the local weather at this juncture however.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 AM EDT Tuesday... Mainly VFR conditions with light WSW winds are expected through the day, outside of early morning valley fog at LWB that may lead to a few hours of MVFR to LIFR restrictions between 0900 to 1200 UTC this morning and again Wednesday morning. Additional rounds of scattered to widespread showers. Outside of any brief periods of restrictions in and around the aforementioned showers and thunderstorms, predominantly VFR conditions are expected for all terminals. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The forecast continues in a typical summertime weather pattern with daily chance of showers/storms during the peak heating hours each day through the end of the work week. Morning fog will also be possible each day, especially at LWB and BCB. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ058-059. NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006. WV...None.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SH/WP NEAR TERM...SH/WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...SH