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652
FXUS61 KRNK 290603
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
203 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A lingering warm and unstable airmass remains in place through
at least Tuesday. A front will move through the region bringing
slightly cooler and less humid conditions. Until then, diurnal
showers and storms with heavy rain resulting in localized
flooding, as well as isolated severe storms causing wind damage.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 135 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and evening.

2) The main threat from storms will be heavy rain, which could
lead to localized flash flooding.

Very stagnant airmass remain in place over the region. Expecting
another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as
daytime heating leads to increasing instability.

Fog and clouds will give way to partly sunny skies late this
morning and into the early afternoon, which should result in
increasing instability. As with the past few days, storms will
begin to develop by early afternoon and will likely continue
into the evening and overnight hours. Could have a few strong to
severe storms, mainly due to increasing PWATs, leading to an
increased wet microburst potential. Main threat today will be
heavy rain from slow moving storms, which will once again pose a
threat for localized flash flooding. Secondary threat will be
damaging winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Line of thunderstorms expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Slightly cooler and drier for Wednesday.

Troughing aloft starts to move over the eastern US by the beginning
of the work week, while an associated cold front tracks towards the
Mid Atlantic from the Ohio Valley. Monday will be another hot and
humid day, with high temperatures few degrees above normal, and
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening with diurnal heating, and fade after sunset. However, on
Tuesday, more thunderstorms will develop during the early to mid
afternoon hours, first over the mountains, and then tracking over to
the Piedmont by Tuesday evening. With more shear ahead and along the
front, between 15 to 20 knots, storms look to be more organized,
eventually becoming more of a line as the storms move eastward, with
the main surface low tracking into southeastern Canada by Wednesday
morning. PWATs through the beginning of the work week are also in
the 99th percentile, relative to climatology, so storms could
produce heavy rain and result in localized flash flooding,
especially for areas that have received plenty of rain during the
past few days.

Surface high pressure pushes into the region following the frontal
passage, which will bring slightly cooler temperatures, but, more
noticeably, a drop in dewpoints and thus humidity, and
Wednesday looks to be dry for most.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Increasing humidity and temperatures by the weekend.

Behind the frontal passage, surface high pressure will become more
established overhead for the second half of the work week, which
will keep shower and thunderstorm probabilities lower. However, the
high looks to push off into the Atlantic by the end of the week and
beginning of the weekend, with easterly return flow bringing
increased moisture back into the region. Ridging aloft also starts
to develop over the southern US upstream of the trough over the
eastern US, which looks to edge its way towards the area by the
weekend. Increasing heights aloft through the weekend will lead to
increasing temperatures. At this time, these positive 500mb
anomalies do not look to be as great as earlier this past week,
associated with the widespread heat wave over the east, so not
thinking unusual heat at this time.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...

Generally VFR outside of any developing fog. Could see some
additional sub-VFR conditions through daybreak as fog fills in.
Will see quick improvements back to VFR after sunrise.

Expecting another round of hit and miss popup thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Main threat will be heavy rain, which
could result in brief vsby reductions. A wet microburst threat
also exists with a few of the stronger storms.

Could have lingering rain and thunderstorms beyond 00Z/8PM
tonight, but should begin to see any rain/storm activity
diminish by the end of the valid 24hr TAF period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily rain and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday, but
a frontal passage will then bring drier conditions back to the
region for Wednesday and Thursday. VFR expected outside of
morning valley fog through Thursday and rain/storms through
Tuesday.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG