Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 301124 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 724 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 715 AM EDT THURSDAY... AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SE WV THIS MORNING INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS GOING TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAIN FOCUS WORKING EAST TOWARD THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND UPDATING CHANCES THROUGH 9 AM INTO THE ALLEGHANYS. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... EXPECT FOG TO BE ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY 13Z. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT TYPICAL DIFFERENCES ON WHERE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE. GIVEN THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND IN THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH FRONT MOVING IN BY LATE MORNING...THINK THE STORM THREAT IS LOWER OVER THE MTNS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO STEEPEN THE LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THOUGH THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT THE ISOLATED THREAT FOR A MICROBURST GIVEN HIGHER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE MARGINAL RISK OVER THE NE PIEDMONT NE OF LYH...AND TO THE SOUTH OF YADKINVILLE NC. HOWEVER...THINK THE EASTERN CWA WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGHS TODAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...THINKING THE WEST WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WHILE THE ROANOKE VALLEY EAST TO THE PIEDMONT HIT UPPER 80S...LOWER 90S. SOME HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 100 FROM FARMVILLE TO DANVILLE IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. TONIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING OUR WESTERN CWA WHILE THE FRONT EAST SLOWS DOWN AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING LONGER. THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY DAWN FRIDAY...AND YOU WILL BE ABLE TO TELL FRIDAY MORNING THAT THE HUMIDITY IS LOWER. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S DEEPER VALLEYS OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TO MID 60S FROM ROANOKE EAST TO THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY... FORECAST MODELS AREA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE HIGH WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON THE HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN A LIGHT NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY... POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES. CONSIDERING LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S/A FEW UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S WEST...TO THE LOW/MID 60S EAST. WITH COOL AIR DRAINAGE...MAY SEE A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FALL TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... PREDOMINATE UPPER TROFFINESS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY KEEP OVERALL DRY WEATHER IN PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY- MONDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BACK INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EARLIER ECMWF AND CMC ABOUT THE ONLY SOLUTIONS THAT STILL HINT AT THIS SO BASICALLY LEAVING OUT MOST POPS OUTSIDE OF SOMETHING ISOLATED SE SECTIONS ON MONDAY. COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN ENOUGH BY MIDWEEK TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT A BIT MORE CONVECTION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT TRAVERSE THE NW FLOW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT HESITANT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP GIVEN MAIN LIFT TO THE NORTH BUT APPEARS ENOUGH FOCUS WITH HEATING TO SUPPORT SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCES MAY COME WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND DEWPOINTS RISE BUT EVEN THEN SUPPORT THIS FAR SOUTH LACKING SO CHANCE POPS IN ORDER. OTRW MAINLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 80S TO AROUND 90 SE AND 60S OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOME COOLER 50S VALLEYS EARLY IN THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY REMAIN LOW. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 720 AM EDT THURSDAY... AMD NOT SKED ADDED TO LYH AS NO COMMS INTO OUR COMPUTER SYSTEM. FAA NOTIFIED. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING GOING TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS FORM AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE LWB TERMINAL FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HRS TIL 13-14Z...THEN SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST TODAY. KEPT VCTS AT DAN/LYH AND THINK THIS WILL BE WHERE BETTER COVERAGE...ALBEIT SCATTERED WILL BE GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TO AID IN INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT WORKS EAST THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 12 KTS...THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOIST GROUND. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... BEHIND THE FRONT THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FROM LYNCHBURG...AND THE FAA HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. NO ESTIMATED TIME OF RESTORATION WAS GIVEN. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...AMS/KK/WP EQUIPMENT...

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