Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 281902 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 302 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT...PASSING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY... RIDGING ALOFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST FROM THE GREAT LAKE REGION SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. INITIALLY SHAPED POPS THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE RNK WRFARW...HRRR AND NAM...THEN TOWARDS THE GFS WEDNESDAY. LEANED TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF PRE- AND POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. EXPECT THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS BAND TRANSITIONS INTO A DOWNSLOPING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A CHILLY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY 5F-10F. THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL RESIDE OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS TROUGH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S. SINCE RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOT IDEAL...FROST POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IS NOT LIKELY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY... LATEST 12Z GFS IS STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN 850MB TEMPS WITH THE 12Z GFS RUNNING MUCH WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW KEEPING THINGS MORE ALIGNED WITH WPC AND PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPILL OVER TO THE REST OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WV INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. DEPENDING ON WHEN THE TRANSITION TO SNOW TAKES PLACE AND HOW MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS WILL DICTATE IF THERE ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID 30S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND ADDING JUST A FEW DEGREES TO THAT ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL. ALSO THIS WEEKEND...PRESSURE RISES...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A 45-55KT CROSS BARRIER LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 147 PM EDT TUESDAY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCNL SFC GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD GENERALLY END 1 OR 2 HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CIGS/VSBYS TRENDING UPWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SORT OF RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE ONLY AT BLF AND LWB FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS TO THE WEST VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...CF AVIATION...KK/PM

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