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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 250402
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1102 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TONIGHT. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EST SATURDAY...

FORECAST AREA WAS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF OF LONG ISLAND...A
CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOWER CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AS LONG AS WINDS HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD
IN OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES.

SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS HAS ENHANCED
THE UPSLOPE OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE. WIND SPEEDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS HAVE ALSO INCREASED. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH
6AM. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH.
HAVE ADDED DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FOR OVERNIGHT.

THE REMAINING ICE WHICH IS STILL ON THE TREES WILL REMAIN THERE
FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE TESTED BY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 4AM AND FOR SUNDAY WITH BACKING
FLOW AHEAD OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN SUNDAY
EVENING...THUS LEAVING US WITH A DRY SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS WE TRANSITION THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME
SUN EXPECTED EARLY ON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 30S
AND 40S AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT...LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.

NOTICED THAT PLACES LIKE BOONE NORTH CAROLINA HAVE ALREADY SLIPPED
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...THE TEMP PROFILE AT BOONE HAS
STEADILY TRENDED DOWN FROM A PEAK OF 37 DEG F AT 2AM TO 23 DEG F
AT 3PM. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT AIRMASS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. AS THIS COLD POOL MOVES
EAST...READINGS MAY ACTUALLY COME UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT AS
THE WINDS SUBSIDE. 85H TEMPERATURE PROGS GO FROM M6 DEG C AT
TNB/BOONE THIS EVE BACK UP TO NEAR 0 DEG C BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VARIATION IN THE PATH BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL
TAKE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SURFACE
LOW TO PASS OVER...OR JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD
PROMOTE A SNOW VERSUS RAIN SCENARIO WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ANY SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND
PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR OUR REGION WILL BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
GREENBRIER...BATH...AND ROCKBRIDGE COUNTIES MAY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS
IN THE TWO TO THREE INCH RANGE. OTHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW TO COMMENCE AND
PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. A REINFORCING SURGE OF ENERGY WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL SEE A BRIEF SURGE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THIS REGION. THE UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WILL BE
GREATEST BETWEEN ROUGHLY BLUEFIELD WV AND WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
WV WITH AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED DUSTING TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES BECAUSE OF THIS FEATURE.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END IN THE WEST...AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL TREND COOLER
WITH READINGS AT...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY TO READINGS AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 1026 MB SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE CHICAGO AREA WITH AN APPROACHING TRAILING
COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. WILL KEEP
PTYPE AS RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE
NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OR
SNOW FLURRIES. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE
MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SETUPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE EAST. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS LOOKED RELATIVELY DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S. THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S IN
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 705 PM EST SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS WAS APPROACHING THE MOUNTAIN THIS EVENING.
MODELS BRING CLOUDS INTO KBLF AND KLWB ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ONCE THE WIND
DIMINISHES AND STARTS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER...CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR. HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CLIPPER WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOLDING OFF ANY
LOWER CLOUD COVER UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 00Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THE CLIPPER AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY COMES IN
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH OCNL IFR
DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWER CONFIDENCE THE MVFR CIGS
WILL SPILL OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.

AFTER MONDAY...ANY PTYPE WILL BE SNOW WITH DUE TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR.

BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DAY OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER AND REGION-WIDE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MTN 162.475...IS BACK ON THE AIR.
TECHNICIANS STILL HAVE REPAIRS PLANNED FOR MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ015.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/PM
EQUIPMENT...PM