Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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080 FXUS61 KRNK 260905 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 405 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move from the Tennesse Valley this morning to off the Carolina coast tonight. A warm front will lift northeast toward the region Monday and Tuesday resulting in an increasing chance of precipitation. By Wednesday and Thursday low pressure tracking northeast out of the Central Plains will push a cold front across the eastern United States.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 350 AM EST Sunday... Upslope stratocumulus extended down the west slopes of the Appalachians through southeast West Virginia and into Tazwell County this morning. Area radars showed light snow showers or flurries in western Greenbrier county. Bufkit guidance and model humidity forecast below 700MB showed snow ending and clouds eroding by 15Z/10AM. Otherwise the air mass is dry and sunshine is expected today. Highs will be near normal east of the Blue Ridge and just below normal in the mountains. Surface and winds through 850MB will diminish this morning and during the afternoon and evening back to the west then southwest. Surface high pressure over the Tennessee Valley this morning will move east across the central and southern Appalachians this afternoon then off the Carolina coast tonight. Return flow around the high combined with a low developing in the Southern Plains will spread high clouds into the Mid Atlantic region mainly after midnight. Winds will decouple this evening and with little cloud cover temperatures will have a sharp drop, then as cloud cover increases overnight, a much smaller change in temperatures is expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 AM EST Sunday... High pressure will move further out into the Atlantic ocean Monday. A west to southwest flow aloft will continue Monday into Wednesday. Embedded shortwaves will rotate through the upper flow across our region. A warm front will lift north across the Tennessee valley Monday and across our region Monday night into Tuesday. The combination of shortwaves, warm advection and increased moisture will result in the potential for rain. Initially trimmed back the pops for Monday morning with dry air mass in place. Leaned ISC Grids towards the NAM for Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, the southwest flow around the surface high will push moisture into western portions of Forecast area. This is supported by the GFS and ECMWF which have been fairly consistent with moisture stringing out to the northeast with Ohio Valley Shortwave. Monday high temperatures will be warmer that Sunday with Readings from the mid 40s in the mountains to the lower 60s in the Piedmont. Under cloudy skies with some rain, low temperatures Monday night will be mild with readings from the mid 30s in the northwest mountains to the mid 40s in the Piedmont. Scattered showers will move across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night with frontal boundary traveling lifting northward. Temperatures continue to moderate Tuesday with High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in the mountains to near 70 degrees in the Piedmont. It will feel quite mild Tuesday night with low values from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in southeast portions of the forecast area. A strong cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and moves across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High temperatures Wednesday will vary from near 60 degrees in the northwest mountains to the mid and upper 70s in the Piedmont. Behind the front, cold air will push into our region. Low temperatures will feature readings from the upper 20s in the north to the mid 40s in the southeast.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 320 AM EST Sunday... Upper trough moves east to the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. A clipper type system diving southeast across the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday in northwest flow aloft behind the upper trough. Canadian high pressure will settle in for Saturday into Sunday. Moisture associated with another frontal boundary may arrive late Sunday night into Monday. Cooler temperatures expected Thursday into Friday, then temperatures moderate Saturday into Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1115 PM EST Saturday... Upper cold pool will cross parts of the region overnight as surface high pressure gradually builds east into the area later tonight through Sunday. Upslope aided low clouds under the passing shortwave energy aloft likely to result in periods of VFR/MVFR cigs at KLWB/KBLF overnight, with some of these cigs possibly spilling out to KBCB and KROA during the early morning hours of Sunday. However quite uncertain to the eastward/southern extent of the cloud cover and any snow showers given ongoing mixing and dry air. For now will include mainly VFR cigs far western locations, and TEMPO in some ocnl MVFR canopy espcly around KBLF through daybreak Sunday. This while also leaving out any snow shower mention attm. Strong subsidence along with deepening cold advection should also keep winds gusty across the mountains overnight into Sunday morning, while speeds subside east of the ridges later tonight. Otherwise high pressure to build in overnight and Sunday before sliding offshore by Monday. This looks to keep VFR under overall light winds in place from Sunday into early next week with perhaps some increase in mid/high clouds by Monday. Extended Aviation Discussion... A warm front is expected to lift northeast toward the region Monday night into Tuesday before passing to the north on Wednesday. This will keep a threat of showers in place including periods of sub-VFR Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front pushes east into the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night with potential for more widespread MVFR/IFR in showers until the boundary exits the area early Thursday. Strong northwest winds along with mountain sub-VFR in upslope low clouds and light precip will likely follow the front for much of Thursday. Expect downslope drying to return VFR to eastern locations by Thursday afternoon. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/WP AVIATION...JH/RCS

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