Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 281127 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 727 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY... AREA RADARS WERE DETECTING TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. ONE MAINLY EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE AND THE SECOND IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS...SPILLING INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A SHORT WAVE CROSSING INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE FEATURE WAS WITHIN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE UPPER TROF AND BOTH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 14Z/10AM. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE HAD ENHANCED UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE WEST. 850 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 TO 45 THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THROUGH THE LIFT IS ADEQUATE...THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY NOON...ENDING THE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN THE WEST. AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING IN LYNCHBURG...BLACKSBURG...DANVILLE ...LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY... WILL START SUNDAY MORNING OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD... RESULTING IN A CHILLY BEGINNING TO THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW TO TAKE OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO THE LOW 50S EAST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING...WITH RAIN SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...ENTERING SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN PASS FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MOST LIKELY IN A BROKEN LINE OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEHIND THIS LINE...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE...CAUSING RAINFALL TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEAVING ONLY RESIDUAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES. WITH VERY LITTLE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...MEANING NOT AS CHILLY AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASSES THAT HAVE BROUGHT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...THE WARMING AFFECT OF DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AS CLOUDS CLEAR BY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL ENSURE GUSTY CONDITIONS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 60S WEST/UPPER 60S EAST. THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1215 PM EDT FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON BOTH LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADING EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER IN THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF MORE PRONOUNCED DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM 5H TROFFINESS BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH PHASING LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY...APPEARS DEEPENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF WILL BE IN PLACE ALLOWING AN INITIAL SHOT OF SHOWERS TO GET LIFTED NORTH OUT OF THE DAMPENING SOUTHERN WAVE. THIS ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT ESPCLY WESTERN HALF LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THUS RUNNING WITH MAINLY LOW POPS MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELYS THURSDAY GIVEN THE OVERRUNNING NATURE TO THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRIDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR THROUGH THE REGION THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT IF AT ALL GIVEN DIFFERING GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OF MORE ENERGY SPILLING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL RUN WITH CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREVIOUS SLOWER EC SOLUTION. TEMPS TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID OR LATE WEEK GIVEN FLATTER FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 60S/70S FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY... DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND A SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROF WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCLUDING AT KBLF THROUGH 15Z/11AM. MOISTURE ERODES BY THIS AFTERNOON SO REGION WILL BE VFR LATE TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AREA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .CLIMATE... AS OF 455 AM EDT FRIDAY... RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH 29: ROANOKE......19 IN 1982 BLACKSBURG...17 IN 2001 LYNCHBURG....23 IN 1923 AND 1982 DANVILLE.....23 IN 1966 BLUEFIELD....19 IN 1966 AND 1982 LEWISBURG....18 IN 1983 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...AMS CLIMATE...AMS/SK

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