Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 222050 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 450 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will stall out across our area through Sunday with a wave of low pressure moving along it. Low pressure will slowly track along the front through the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas. The front moves southeast by Monday, with high pressure building in Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 450 PM EDT Saturday... Severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 9 PM this evening for southeast portions of Forecast Area. Flood Watch has been posted for midnight to Monday evening for most of the region. Frontal boundary continues to slowly drop south across the region this afternoon, before it stalls tonight into Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead and along the front. With the instability and shear, a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. Localized flash flooding may be possible this afternoon into tonight with any training of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Look for a southward shift in convection this evening into tonight, then as next upper trough moves east into Tennessee. A surface low will shift to eastern Tennessee, then eastward to South Carolina by Sunday night. This will result in a northward shift in the rain with the wedge reinforcing. For pops used a blend of HRRR and NAM. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 40 degrees in the northwest mountains of Greenbrier county to the lower 50s in the Piedmont. Cloudy and cooler Sunday with occasional rain, heavy at times. As the rain continues to fall, the ground will become saturated and the potential for flooding will increase with time. The widespread potential starts at midnight tonight and continues into Sunday. High temperatures Sunday will be cool with readings from the upper 40s in the mountains to the mid 50s in the Piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 440 PM EDT Saturday... The upper low tracks southeast and will be off the coast Monday night before making a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. Wedge at the surface remains in place through Monday night then pressure lower enough as the surface low reaches the North Carolina coast to bring winds around to the north then northwest and erode the wedge. Models showed a prolonged period of decent easterly winds which will aide in widespread to heavy rain Sunday night. The low is far enough offshore that a bulk of the moderate to heavy rain will move east of Lynchburg and Danville by Monday morning. However, there is enough moisture wrapping around the low that chance of showers in the foothills and piedmont extends through Tuesday. Stayed close to MAV guidance for temperatures through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 100 PM EDT Saturday... Brief period of upper ridging and higher 500MB heights Tuesday night and Wednesday. By then the long wave trough deepens in the central United States putting the region in broad southwest flow Thursday through Saturday. Models were showing varying degrees of strength of the southeast ridge. Low pressure tracking northeast into the Great Lakes will move a front into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This boundary stalls on Friday before another low moving out of the southern Plains pushes a warm front into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. This pattern keeps the rain potential to the west of the Mid Atlantic states. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 152 PM EDT Saturday... Poor Flying conditions expected during the taf period with showers and thunderstorms with pockets of low clouds and fog. Quickly changing conditions and gusty winds are possible near convection. MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR in convection will prevail this afternoon into tonight, as the cold front drops southeast. Some strong to severe storms may be possible along the Virginia and North Carolina border. The KDAN has the best chance for a stronger storm this afternoon into tonight. Tonight into Sunday morning, keeping showers around with less thunder along with vsbys in the MVFR to IFR range as well as cigs. Winds shift from the southeast to southwest to northeast as cold front sags south behind first area of convection late this afternoon. Beyond midnight expect off and on rain heavy at times, with generally sub-VFR conditions. IFR conditions will become more widespread Sunday into Sunday evening. Low to moderate confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... No change in the pattern and looking wet with predominant sub- VFR Sunday night into Monday, with finally some improvements from west to east Tuesday. Drier and warmer mid to late next week so mainly VFR after early week. Some moisture may return towards the end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY...
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As of 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... Flood watch has been posted for much of the region from Midnight tonight until Monday evening. Despite the semi- wet week, antecedent conditions are fairly dry across the eastern 2/3 of the CWA and generally about normal in the west. Moderate drought is still depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor across much of the piedmont and Abnormally Dry over most of the Blue Ridge and surrounding area with near normal conditions in the west. This suggests that we can absorb more water than might be typical. 3-hour flash flood guidance from the River Forecast Centers ranges generally from about 1.5 inches in the west up to around 3 to 3.5 inches in the west, reflecting well the drier conditions east of the mountains. A slight risk for convective rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance was issued by WPC earlier for Day 1 and Day 2. Pockets of minor advisory-type flooding cannot be ruled out in convective storms which will be more likely tonight and Sunday and further south in the CWA where instability may be much higher. Any training convection over the same basins could produce pockets of flash flooding. At this point the river forecast is purely QPF based. Model QPFs have shown some decent run-to-run consistency over the last few cycles providing more confidence that this will fulfill expectations. Current WPC QPF in the day 1-3 period (this afternoon through early Monday) period is generally about 2 to 4 inches, with the bulk of it falling Sunday and current WFO grids are close to these numbers. The prolonged nature of the rainfall (48 to 72 hours) will lessen the risk of serious river flooding (and flash flooding) as runoff will be more spread out and less efficient. The two best St. Louis University CIPS analogs to this event are April 9-12, 2003 and March 28-30, 2010 both of which featured upper lows over the southeastern U.S. Both events resulted in minor to moderate river flooding on the Dan River but not on the New, James, upper Tennessee or upper Roanoke Rivers. Ensemble river forecasts from the GEFS ensemble are also highlighting the Dan and portions of the Roanoke basins as the most likely to flood, suggesting a greater likelihood for moderate or higher flooding but the NAEFS has been consistently showing lower probabilities.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Monday evening for VAZ007-009>018-022-023-032>034-043>046-058-059. NC...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Monday evening for NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Monday evening for WVZ042.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...KK/WP HYDROLOGY...KK/MBS/PC

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