Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KRNK 221620
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1220 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016
High pressure will be in control through much of this week with
dry and generally seasonable weather. The next decent chance of
precipitation, for at least areas west of the Blue Ridge, will be
Friday when a cold front moves into the area.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 1215 PM EDT Monday...
High pressure continues to build east this afternoon covering
most of the eastern CONUS and bringing much drier air to the
entire region. Under mostly sunny skies should see highs today
mid 70s west to mid 80s east. Overnight lows falling into the mid
50s west to near 60 east may feel almost cold after the relentlesshumidity
and warm nights of the past month.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
Surface high pressure will wedge down the Mid Atlantic Tuesday, then
drifts off the New England coast on Wednesday. Winds will come
around to the southeast on Wednesday, allowing moisture/humidity to
increase. Even though the atmosphere will be capped, a few shallow
showers may develop in the afternoon where the wedge erodes
(Bluefield-Richlands area). Some upslope showers may also develop
along the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, particularly the North
Carolina High Country.
With dry air and abundant sunshine, afternoon temperatures will warm
to seasonal levels, near 80F west and low to mid 80s east. Overnight
lows will drop down into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...
Expect a return to more typical and more familiar summerlike
conditions through the period. Surface high pressure will continue
to drift east allowing a steady stream of increasingly warm/moist
Gulf air to advect northeast into the region. Although high pressure
aloft with heights hovering near 594dm will be common through the
period, a weak trough in the westerlies will skirt by to our north
Thu-Fri. This will drag a weak front into the region late Thu which
will enhance the chance for showers/thunderstorms. Expect the
activity to be more concentrated across the mountains aided by
differential heating, but some will drift into the Piedmont by
Thursday evening. Instability looks more than sufficient for
thunder, but dynamics are weak at best. Have capped pops at the 30-
40 percent level for now, but later forecasts may be able to refine
areas that will see slightly higher pops, most likely Greenbrier
down toward Tazewell/Bland. The remnants of the front will drift
into North Carolina by Friday afternoon and wash out. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms still possible as a result, with the
best emphasis across the northwest NC mountains at this point.
With high pressure aloft through the period, not much temperature
change expected. In fact, 850mb temps are progged by most long range
models to return into the +20C range or better, especially across
the lower elevation areas. Thus we will likely see a return of at
least lower 90s east of the Blue Ridge by Friday and Saturday.
Minimum temps will also be on the increase again and trend toward
well above normal by the end of the week with dewpoints creeping
well back into the 60s. The warm, above normal temperature trend
also occurred about this time last year when many Piedmont sites saw
several consecutive days in the lower to mid 90s.
Looking into the future regarding the tropics, the long range models
have multiple variable solutions regarding the tropics. At least
through the end of August, it appears the RNK CWA will not be
impacted by any tropical systems as high pressure aloft dominates
the region over the next 7-10 days.
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 AM EDT Monday...
High pressure currently over the mid-Mississippi Valley will drift
slowly eastward over the next several days with widespread VFR
conditions prevailing. The only exception will be early morning
fog mainly at western TAF sites, especially KLWB.
Extended aviation discussion...
Thursday a bit more moisture will work its way north into western
parts of the area on the west side of a departing high pressure.
Isolated showers will be possible across the mountains, but for
the most part, VFR conditions will still prevail.
On Friday, there is a greater chance of showers, and possibly some
storms, with the approach of our next cold front. Pockets of MVFR
conditions will again occur briefly under the stronger showers or