Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241937 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 337 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front near the Virginia, North Carolina border will head southeast overnight. Other than a quick moving disturbance passing through the region on Tuesday, the bulk of the upcoming week will be controlled by dry, cooler high pressure. Showers, storms, and warmer conditions return to the forecast Friday into the upcoming weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 315 PM EDT Saturday... A cold front was situated just south of the NC/VA border this afternoon. Daytime heating along the feature has triggered some scattered showers and storms. These are expected to continue into early this evening through approximately sunset before dissipating. The front will progress southeast through the overnight hours as drier higher pressure works its way into the region. Skies will initially trend mostly clear to clear once the precipitation ends. However, later tonight, residual low level moisture, and weak upslope conditions in the west are expected to prompt the formation of some stratus across portions of southeast West Virginia and neighboring counties of southwest Virginia. This moisture will be shallow, expect the layer to dissipate not long after sunrise Sunday as the boundary layer mixes. Skies will be mostly sunny by mid-day with at most high level cirrus clouds dimming the sunshine from time to time. Temperatures will start trending cooler. Anticipate lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s across the mountains and the low to mid 60s across the Piedmont. On Sunday, high temperatures will range from the low to mid 70s across the mountains to the low to mid 80s across the Piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 310 PM EDT Saturday... Trough in place and should be noticeably less humid. Appears shortwave diving across the central Appalachians/mid Atlantic late Monday night into Tuesday will have enough lift/moisture to bring a few showers to the area, mainly along/west of the Blue Ridge. Still not a widespread big event. Lows Sunday night-Tuesday night will run about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal over most of the area, ranging from the mid 40s to around 50 west, to lower to mid 50s across foothills/piedmont. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal, cooler in the mountains, ranging from mid 60s to around 70, with mid to upper 70s east.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 230 PM EDT Saturday... Trough lifts out midweek with height building across the southern U.S. Surface high will slide east of the region Wednesday night. Digging trough over the upper midwest to start to build a little more of heat ridge in the southeast with 591 heights. Will stay mainly dry but heating up with threat of typical summertime convection as early as Thursday over the WV mountains, with better threat Friday-Saturday. Southwest flow aloft increases by Saturday with a frontal boundary slowly moving toward the Ohio Valley. Should see an uptick in coverage in the mountains over the weekend in convection. After highs in the 60s/70s Tuesday will see it a little warmer Wednesday with mid 70s west to lower 80s east. Dewpoints will still be in the 50s, with some 40s mountains but Thursday will see moisture increase with highs bumping up another 5 degrees with upper 70s/lower 80s west, mid to upper 80s east. These warmer temperatures which are close to normal for the end of June will stick around into July 1st, but the humidity will be more noticable as well.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Saturday... Isolated to scattered showers are expected the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening between roughly KTNB-KDAN. MVFR to low end VFR ceiling are expected within this region with mainly VFR ceilings north of this area. Visibilities will be primarily VFR with brief IFR/MVFR visibilities associated with the heavier showers or stray thunderstorm that develops. The activity should wane around sunset as we lose the heating of the day and the cold front partially responsible for the activity moves southeast. Overnight, most of the area will experience VFR conditions. Areas between roughly KLWB-KBLF will encounter a brief period of MVFR/IFR ceilings late tonight as low level moisture, and weak upslope flow, combined to yield some stratus. Any sub-VFR conditions should improve quickly to VFR a little after sunrise Sunday. Winds will gradually increase Sunday morning from the northwest with gusts around 15 to 20 mph possible across the mountains. Confidence is moderate to high regarding this portion of the aviation discussion. Extended Aviation Discussion... Other than the potential for some brief late night/early morning mountain and river valley fog, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday. On Friday, the potential will increase for some brief, localized sub-VFR conditions as showers and thunderstorm chances increase. Confidence is high regarding this portion of the aviation discussion. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...DS

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