Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290819 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 419 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING...PUSHING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY... WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS HAD ADVANCED WEST INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT HAD RAIN ON THURSDAY THEN WERE STILL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS MORNING WERE REPORTING FOG. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRING A BOUNDARY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND WILL HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA...THE WIND MAY REMAIN FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS MAY NOT CLEAR TODAY...OR IF THEY DO...THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN. THE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND DEEPER EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT REMAIN IN THE CLOUDS TODAY WILL HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S BUT WITH THE APRIL SUN...JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY. SHOWERS HAD EXITED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE LEFT A LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA TODAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND IN THE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS FOR LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN OVER EASTERN COUNTIES...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY... THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING DURING THE PERIOD TO A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF REGIME. THIS WILL BRING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP AND OVER A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVED BY TO OUR NORTH THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WEDGE WILL BE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AND WE WILL ENTER THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW. DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY BE ADEQUATE TO CREATE SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES AS PWATS WILL BE RUNNING WELL OVER ONE INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ADDED TO OUR RECENT WET SPELL. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WEDGE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 324 PM EDT THURSDAY... A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED TOWARDS GFS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DRIER AIR OVER THE WET ECMWF. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. HARD TO JUDGE HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND WITH COOLING TREND AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED IFR CLOUDS EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE 06Z START OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD KBCB WAS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN WILL REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...KLYH MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL AROUND 18Z/2PM. FOG WITH MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR AND WHERE THERE WAS RAIN ON THURSDAY. THIS FOG WILL ALSO DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING. WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AFTER 00Z/8PM. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/JH

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