Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 291430 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1030 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A persistent stationary front extended from eastern Virginia, into the Ohio Valley and through the mid Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Little change in this weather pattern is expected through Monday. The front may move south into the Carolinas on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1025 AM EDT Friday... Across the region, there were more clouds than sun across the mountains and more sun than clouds across the Piedmont. This will continue to be the pattern through the early afternoon. Some sprinkles have been showing up on radar from time to time this morning, and some of these past over the airport at Bluefield, WV. These too will continue into the early afternoon across the mountains, although the vast majority of the area will remain dry. This afternoon, we are still expecting a disturbance currently moving through eastern Kentucky to be across the western portion of the forecast region. This feature paired with heating of the afternoon will help spark shower and thunderstorm development. Coverage is expected to be isolated across the Piedmont with scattered coverage across the mountains. Current temperature forecast is on track so little or no changes expected at this time. As of 400AM EDT Friday... Weak short wave from the Maryland panhandle into central Tennessee will generate isolated showers over the forecast area this morning. Low level winds will become northwest as the axis of this short wave move east and the associated surface low tracks toward New York. NAM, local WRF and HRRR bring the showers and thunderstorms that were along the Kentucky/Tennessee border into the western part of the county warning area this afternoon,then east by 00Z/8pm. With the overall northwest winds, the best probability of precipitation will remain in the western county warning area. Starting out with widespread low clouds and some fog this morning in the west. Bufkit forecast soundings suggest that southeast West Virginia counties may not clear out until late morning. This will limit available instability when the precipitation arrives in the west. 500MB heights today will be slightly lower than past few days. Models should have a decent handle on the temperature trends of this air mass. Stayed close to MAV guidance for both highs today and the minimum temperature tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Friday... An upper level trough will remain centered over the Great lakes this weekend. Waves rounding this trough will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region each afternoon and evening. Models are keeping the stronger dynamics north of the area, but with ample moisture and instabilities, strong to severe storms are possible with damaging winds being the primary threat. Torrential downpours are also possible each afternoon with pwats remaining well above normal. Temperatures stay elevated at night thanks to high pwats with lows from the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east. This weekend should be at or just above typical late July values of lower to mid 80s west to around 90 east. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM EDT Friday... Belt of westerlies will be laying across the area Monday, with front situated across the mid-Atlantic. Afterward the upper flow takes on a more NW to SE orientation across our area as ridge builds over the Central Plains. The front weakens but convergence along it to remain through midweek. In addition, the upper pattern favors potential ridge runners, where convective clusters form over the upper midwest and shift southeast over our area. Overall, will keep threat of showers and storms in the forecast all periods but looks like Monday will have the better chance for measurable rainfall. May see slight nudge downward in temps early but overall humidity levels should stay the same, so no appreciable dry air expected thru Thursday. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 725 AM EDT Friday... Satellite pictures and surface observations indicated eastern edge of LIFR to IFR clouds from just west of KLWB to just west of KTNB. Expect a slow improvement in ceilings this morning, with high confidence that KBLF will be up to VFR by 16Z/noon. HRRR and NAM are bringing the cluster of showers and thunderstorms along the Kentucky/Tennessee border into southern West Virginia and western Virginia around 18Z.The showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ceilings and visibilities continue east across the region during the afternoon and early evening. High confidence that the precipitation will be east of KLYH and KDAN by 03Z/11PM. Locations that get rain this afternoon may have MVFR fog overnight as well as the typically valleys in the west. No fog in the TAF for KLWB yet. Extended aviation discussion... The area will remain in a relatively active period for showers and storms through Tuesday thanks to a persistent, nearly stationary frontal boundary across or near our region. Outside of the precipitation and during the daylight hours, VFR conditions are expected. Within the heavier showers and storms, and during the overnight hours sub-VFR conditions are more likely. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/DS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/DS

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