Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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579 FXUS61 KRNK 071034 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 634 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Chantal will move northeast of the area later this morning. Rain associated with Chantal will end as well. Temperatures warm in the 80s and 90s as skies turn sunny. A daily chance of rain and thunderstorms begins this afternoon and continues through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 625 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) The Flood Watch has been cancelled. Any remaining rainfall will be light. 2)Flash flooding still likely ongoing in Halifax Counties. The circulation associated with Chantal has weakened considerably, with only light rain ongoing in Southside and central VA. As such, the Flood Watch has been cancelled. Remnant flooding and closed roads are likely in Caswell and southern Halifax Counties, where between 6 and 8 inches of rain fell overnight. Continue to heed road closures, and stay away from creeks and streams which will be near bankfull. As of 100 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1) Flood Watch remains in effect through 9 AM this morning for portions of Southside VA and the NC Piedmont. Buckingham County has been added to the watch, while Stokes, Rockingham Co. NC, and Henry County have been dropped. 2) Isolated showers/storms redevelop this afternoon/evening. The remnants of Chantal will meander from near Durham, NC to Charlotte Court House in VA this morning, and will mostly stay on the SE side of Buckingham County. By 9 AM or so, the circulation will push northeast out of the area, bringing an end to the heavy rain we have been seeing near the center of the circulation. Rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches have fallen in Caswell County, with even higher totals to the south. This translates to about a 200 year ARI over a 3 hour period...meaning rainfall totals of this magnitude only fall about once every 200 years in 3 hours. PWATs in the NC Piedmont and Southside VA are hovering around 2 to 2.4 inches. Slow storm motion and deep warm cloud depths are also contributing to high rainfall rates. Flooding will continue to be an issue until this system moves northeast later today. The Flood Watch has been extended out in time slightly. We will see some isolated convection develop this afternoon, with remnant moisture and temperatures warming into the low to upper 90s for the mountains/upper 80s to mid 90s in the Piedmont. SBCAPEs increase to 1200 J/kg over the mountains, and this is where we could see some activity. Heavy rain under these storms will be possible, but nothing like we are seeing with Chantal. Otherwise the severe threat looks low with westerly winds keeping storms from becoming widespread. As Chantal exits the area, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected. Some dense fog is possible overnight into Tuesday morning, with southerly winds returning. Lows will be in the 60s to low 70s. Confidence in the near term is moderate to high.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM EDT MONDAY... Key Messages: 1) Active weather through the week 2) Daily showers and storms could bring localized flooding concerns On Tuesday a southward moving frontal boundary will make its way into the Mid-Atlantic, and then meander in that region for most of the following week. The stalled front will guide waves of energy directly through the area. Excess moisture, high PWATs and hot afternoon temperatures will make for a recipe of diurnal pulse convection. The main concern with any thunderstorms will be damage from severe thunderstorm wind gusts. Additionally, the repetitive nature of this convective setup, meaning we expect showers and storms each afternoon and evening, could lead to localized flooding should any particular area receive heavy rainfall multiple days in a row. At particular threat of flooding would be the regions impacted most by Chantal, the NC Piedmont, and the Southside of VA. Temperatures and humidity will be above normal, so expect it to feel sticky should you head outside.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 AM EDT MONDAY... Key Messages: 1) Showers and storms continue A stationary boundary will be settled somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic for the majority of this forecast period. The atmospheric environment will undergo little change, and as such, much of the description of diurnal showers and storms from the short term portion of the discussion will apply here as well. The daily location of the stationary boundary may alter day to day, but more or less, diurnal showers and storms will spring up throughout the forecast area. The potential for severe weather is less certain, but such a long period of time in which rainfall occurs most afternoons will lead to flooding concerns, especially later in the week as more of the area sees their soil become saturated and runoff increases.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Monday... Besides LYH and DAN, terminals are VFR, located within the subsidence side of Chantal. LYH and DAN are still seeing heavy rain and this will continue through about 12-14Z. Current conditions are IFR to MVFR, but will gradually lower through the night into early Monday morning. Otherwise we will see the usual low fog/stratus at LWB this morning. We will see improvement to VFR everywhere by mid morning as Chantal moves northeast. VFR conditions will remain through the end of the TAF period for all terminals with only isolated chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Current probabilities are not high enough to include in TAF lines at this time. Winds vary depending on how close the terminal is to Chantal, but all will gradually transition to west/northwest by this afternoon as the center of Chantal continues its north and east trek. Winds will be less than 10 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts close to the center of the circulation this morning. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The forecast area then transitions back into a typical summertime weather pattern with daily chance of showers/storms during the peak heating hours each day starting Tuesday. Morning fog will also be possible each day, especially at LWB and BCB. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...SH