Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 232341 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 741 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure was over Wisconsin with a cold front trailing through the Central Plains. This low will move southeast tonight and Monday, pushing a dry cold front through our region before Monday afternoon. High pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another cold front on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Kept previous forecast idea of clear skies and lighter winds early this evening then building southwest flow in the higher elevations before midnight ahead of frontal boundary over Indiana/Illinois into Missouri as of 7pm. Mainly clear skies but some cirrus may sneak into the NC mountains by midnight. Previous discussion from this afternoon... Winds have been gusting from the west-northwest at 15 to 30 mph this afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening, especially in the valleys due to high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states. Temperatures climbed around 25 degrees today then will drop sharply this evening once the winds weaken. Water vapor loop showed a short wave crossing southeast over Lake Michigan. This feature will be over Pennsylvania by Monday morning. At the surface a cold front will cross the area Monday morning. Surface winds will will increase behind the front becoming gusty again by late Monday morning. Once mixing begins behind the front, temperatures will begin to rise. Downsloping on the east side of the Blue Ridge will result in warmer temperatures and lower humidities. Models bring some clouds into the western upslope area early Monday morning along and behind the front, but the chance of precipitation will be low and confined western Greenbrier County. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Surface high pressure will build over the region Monday night as a dry cold front sinks south into the Carolinas. Cold air behind the front will bring cooler than normal temperatures to the area through the period. Afternoon highs both Tuesday and Wednesday will only warm into the 60s. Widespread 30s are expected across the mountains and lower 40s across the foothills and piedmont early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. With light winds, frost will be possible across parts of the New and Greenbrier River Valleys and portions of the southern Alleghany Highlands late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, and will be reflected as such in the forecast. Frost will also be possible over parts of the New and Greenbrier River Valleys and the Mountain Empire and Grayson Highlands regions of southwest Virginia Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. However, this will not be reflected in the forecast as October 25th will have marked the end of our freeze/frost program for these regions for the forecast area. From October 26th through early spring, frosts and freezes are a normal occurrence and will not be specifically mentioned. The freeze/frost program and growing season for our eastern counties continues until November 15th unless there is a widespread killing frost (temperatures below 32F) occuring before then. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Sunday... A warm front aloft will bring high clouds over the region Thursday morning. By Thursday evening, a cold front will bring a line of showers across the mountains and possibly east of the Blue Ridge during the evening. Confidence is not high on the line surviving east of the Blue Ridge and into a more stable environment. However, flow becomes southwesterly, therefore scattered showers are possible if moisture and instabilities recover with a slower moving front. An area of weak high pressure builds in from the northwest on Friday. Models are not in agreement with next weekends weather. The GFS quickly brings the next cold front across the region Saturday. The ECM has high pressure lingering into Friday night, with a warm frontal passage Saturday followed by a cold front on Monday. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal on Thursday, then moderate toward normal on Friday. Next weekends temperatures will depend on timing of each frontal passage. For now, will carry seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 735 PM EDT Sunday... Expecting VFR conditions through the period though some scattered clouds with bases in the 1500 to 3000 ft range may occur over BLF/LWB after fropa Monday morning. Main issue this evening into overnight will be increase in low level jet out of the wsw, while the surface winds stay lower in speed. This presents some low level wind shear issues. Will have LLWS in til mixing occurs after fropa late tonight into Monday morning. Behind the front winds should gust at times to 20kts, then weaken again by the end of this TAF period. Extended aviation discussion... Monday night high pressure will build across the area with diminishing winds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each morning, otherwise widespread VFR. Thursday...Low pressure is forecast to move across the upper midwest and into the Great lakes with a surface front crossing the Ohio Valley. Threat for showers and sub-VFR will be possible along this front which would impact the central Appalachians for Thursday and Thursday night. Attm, this does not appear that it will have a significant impact to our region. Biggest impact would be from Ohio Valley north into Great Lakes closer to the surface low. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday, with potential MVFR ceilings at BLF/LWB before the high arrives. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 400 AM EDT Sunday... Little or no rain has fallen across the northwest North Carolina Piedmont in the last 14 days. Conditions are becoming increasingly dry for western North Carolina, just east of the Blue Ridge. Drying conditions will continue for this region again today, and for much of the upcoming work week. Passage of a dry front early Monday may pose control problems for fire lee of the Blue Ridge, and especially for areas which have not seen rainfall. Greatest concern would be from Mount Airy, North Carolina, and areas to the southwest, including Pilot Mountain. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible Monday, coupled with humidity minimums near 30 percent. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP FIRE WEATHER...PM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.