Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 200242 AAA AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1042 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER...AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND THEN STALL AND TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. FOR OUR REGION THIS SERIES OF EVENTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 1035 PM EDT SUNDAY... GIVEN QUICK TEMP FALLS ACROSS THE WEST INCLUDING THE NW NC MOUNTAINS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED ALL OF GREENBRIER COUNTY WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING AS WELL AS TAZEWELL COUNTY. ALSO INCLUDING MERCER CTY ALONG WITH GRAYSON...ASHE AND WATAUGA INTO THE FROST ADVISORY SINCE MOST CIRRUS TO THE WEST APPEAR TO BE FADING WITH WINDS REMAINING QUITE LIGHT. OTRW OTHER THAN LOWERING TEMPS FEW OTHER CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH EXTENT OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE PER 00Z RAOB AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS. THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED A QUICK DROP IN EVENING TEMPS AND EXPECT READINGS TO CHASE THE DEWPOINT ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUTLYING AREAS FOR MUCH OF NIGHT. HOWEVER APPROACH OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OF CONCERN IN CAUSING READINGS TO STEADY OUT SOME MOUNTAINS WHILE THINKING LESS OUT EAST WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL END UP OVERNIGHT. MIXING ALSO TO INCREASE ON THE RIDGES AS WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY PICKS UP ALOFT MAKING THINGS TRICKY FOR COVERAGE OF FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY OF THE COUNTIES. ACTUALLY THINK PARTS OF THE EAST HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE FROST DESPITE DRYNESS SO ADDED A FEW MORE COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY WHILE KEEPING ROANOKE AND BLUEFIELD OUT WITH MORE PATCHY VALLEY COVERAGE THERE. ALSO ADDED MORE FROST INTO SOUTHSIDE VA AS WELL AS THE HIGHER VALLEYS ACROSS THE NW NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MAY ACTUALLY SEE READINGS ON THE RIDGES RISE LATE. THUS BUMPED UP LOWS AT ELEVATION WHILE LOWERING VALLEYS WHERE SOME BRIEF 20S POSSIBLE. ON MONDAY...ANY FROST WILL QUICKLY MELT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND NOON...AND BE NEAR 10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S COMMON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY... SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY KICK OFF IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY THEN PASSING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT... WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND MORE DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGES...AND SPILL INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...SO MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END...WITH CLEARING SKIES...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY... EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... MAINTAINING A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POCKETS OF FROST IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE...AND POSSIBLY RIVER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THIS EVENING AND TO THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BECOMING CALM OR NEARLY SO WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. THIN CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST OFF AND ON TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING IN TYPICAL FAVORED VALLEYS...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ON PARKED AIRCRAFT EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OCCASIONAL CIRRUS WILL STILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION INITIALLY...AND THEN BY AFTERNOON AN INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WEST. STILL VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME HINT OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SNEAKING INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...SO INCLUDED A VCSH AT BLF FOR THIS SLIGHT POSSIBILITY...BUT ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF AT THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AIRPORTS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO...A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR OUR REGION...THE MAIN IMPACT WITH BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GUSTY WIND AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGION OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT FROM ROA TO LYH TO DAN CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN WEST WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...FOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ009>015-018>020- 023-024-034-035-045>047. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ007. NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ042>044. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ507-508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...DS/SK

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