Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271950 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 350 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Moist southerly flow will continue tonight into Tuesday, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Low pressure in the Ohio Valley with a trailing cold front will lift eastward tonight into Tuesday. This cold front will approach us tonight and move east through the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Behind the front, drier air will arrive for midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Monday... Isolated to scattered convection developing ahead of the cold front this afternoon in the warm and unstable air. This convection is developing ahead of a lead shortwave moving ahead of an upper trough. The convective outlook for Day 1 places the marginal risk of severe weather to our west with the best instability and dynamics. Highres models like the HRRR and ARW showed isolated convection developing this afternoon into tonight, especially along the southern Blue ridge. Models enhance lift and low level convergence across the Blue Ridge into the foothills after midnight into the overnight as the front approach the Appalachians. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s in the mountains to near 60 degrees in the Piedmont. A strong cold front will move across our region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will develop ahead and along this boundary. The SWODY2 has placed eastern portions of CWA in a marginal risk for Tuesday. The timing of the shortwave on Tuesday with a favorable area of forcing for ascent moving across eastern portions during the afternoon during peak heating. The shortwave should move offshore around 29/00Z. The strongest storms could produce hail and locally damaging wind gusts. High temperatures Tuesday will vary from the upper 50s in the mountains to the mid 70s in the Piedmont.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 349 PM EDT Monday... A cold front will move across the region Tuesday night with showers exiting the piedmont during the evening. Some low level moisture may squeeze out a few showers along western slopes overnight as the theta-E boundary tracks south across the mountains. There is not much cold air air behind this front, so any precipitation along western slopes or across the mountains will be liquid and not frozen. High pressure will move south out of Canada Wednesday, then wedge down the east coast Wednesday night into Thursday. This wedge will initial be dry and mostly clear Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon temperatures will warm into the 60s west to 70s east. A strong area of low pressure will track out of the Rockies Wednesday then across the Midwest Thursday night. This system will throw warm moist air over the wedge, increasing clouds and eventually the chance for rain/drizzle. Saturation of the environment should not occur until late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Isentropic lift increases during the day Thursday. With this in mind, we have delayed the onset of stratiform rain/drizzle until late Thursday morning and moreso along eastern slopes of the North Carolina High Country and Grayson Highlands. The combination of rain falling into a linger wedge will produce cool temperatures with highs in the 50s areawide Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 349 PM EDT Monday... A strong area on low pressure will track from the Midwest to the south-central Appalachian mountains Thursday night into Friday. This low will erode the wedge of cooler air that moved into the region Wednesday. Dynamics from this low and with a retreating wedge boundary, there is the possibility strong storms could develop across the region Friday into Friday evening. However, timing is everything with this event. Currently, models have dynamics and retreating wedge environment occuring during the morning, which lowers the threat for severe weather. If this event occurs later in the day, then the threat for severe weather will increase. With an eroding wedge, temperatures will increase Thursday night and into the day Friday. Lows Thursday night will occur around midnight (upper 40s), then rise into the low to mid 60s Friday afternoon. This low pressure system and associated showers will exit the mid Atlantic coast Friday night. Dry high pressure and near normal temperatures will follow for the weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 300 PM EDT Monday... East to southeast flow will push moisture into our region this afternoon into Tuesday. SCT to BKN MVFR clouds will continue this afternoon into tonight. Ceiling will hold in many areas with some breaks in the clouds from time to time. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered over the mountains this afternoon into tonight. Better rain threat later tonight ahead of the front, with cigs dropping to mvfr (ISOLD IFR) towards 12z Tuesday in most areas. Dominant wind flow into Tuesday will be from a southerly direction. Extended Aviation Discussion... Front moves in the mountains after 12z Tuesday with best threat of showers/some thunder and sub-VFR in the 09z-18z Tuesday time frame. Cold front exits the Piedmont by 00z Wednesday with lingering sub- VFR cigs in BLF/LWB with VFR in the EAst. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday into Thursday with next storm system moving in the MS Valley. A threat for Sub-VFR cigs appears likely as the high wedges southwest Wed night into Thursday for most sites. Better chances of rain Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...RAH/WP

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