Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 230557 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 157 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY... LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOWING UP ON IR SATELLITE IS ALL THAT REMAINS FROM A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT UP TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLIER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE AN UNEVENTFUL START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND SET UP A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL WARM US UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY AND START TO INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT. A STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RUNNING UP THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE...BUT ANY POPS WILL BE BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AND IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A REASON TO CANCEL A PICNIC SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. LOWS TONIGHT ARE A BIT CHALLENGING AS ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DROPPING DOWN WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL BELIEVE IT WILL GET QUITE CHILLY WITH GENERALLY LOW/MID 40S WEST OF THE RIDGE AND MID/UPPER 40S EAST. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIDGE MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK BUT BELIEVE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND SOME DEGREE OF CLOUDS WILL PROHIBIT ANY FROST FORMATION AND MITIGATE ANY THREAT TO TENDER VEGETATION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... TIME TO FIRE UP THE BARBIE! HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES TRENDING PROGRESSIVELY WARMER. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...SHOWER PRODUCTION WILL BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM...THUS EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY... SUMMERLIKE PATTERN TO CLOSE OUT THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...THE ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN AN IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY PATTERN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO COMPLIMENT THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S/NEAR 90. THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE LOW...DYNAMIC SUPPORT LACKING. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE VIEW BUT THESE ARE WELL ABOVE 12K FEET AND NOT SHOWING IN ANY METAR REPORTS. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE 050-070 RANGE COULD YIELD SCT-BKN CLOUDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OCCASIONAL SCT250 AS WELL FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SPILLING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY EFFECTIVE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MVFR BR AT LWB/BCB IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. WINDS...NW 5-7KTS THROUGH 04Z...THEN VEERING THROUGH NE-SE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. SPEEDS REMAINING MOSTLY 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MADAME TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/PC SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...RAB/PC

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