Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 030106 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 906 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS KEEPING AN UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS 900 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR VA/NC ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN WV AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. AS OF 900 PM...LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM LYNCHBURG VA TO WILKESBORO NC. MAIN THREAT GOING FORWARD IS PRIMARILY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. STRONGER CELL CORES HAVE BEEN WEAKING...VIL TRENDS ARE DOWN. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THIS DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUING TO WANE. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT FORWARD MOVEMENT OF LINE WILL SLOW RESULTING IN TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT...SO DON`T BE SUPRISED IF WE ISSUE A WARNING OR TWO FOR FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HEALTHY SLUG OF WATER IS GOING TO DRAIN INTO THE DAN RIVER BASIN...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT RISE ALONG THE DAN RIVER TUESDAY. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IS NOT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD. WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ANY CLEARING WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION...SO AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNRISE TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE EAST. CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL LIFT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT LATE WENDESDAY...TEMPERATURES FAVOR EARLY MAY NORMALS. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TUMBLE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 85H TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEG C ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPRESSING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A DAILY THREAT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... CUTOFF WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUR TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS SO LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS BUT STILL RESEMBLING SOMETHING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE...THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND REGIONWIDE FRIDAY COURTESY OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS MOUNT ROGERS...MAY EVEN TOY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. FOR THE WEEKEND...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT A POP-UP SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. SINCE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...REMOVED SHOWER THREAT FOR ALL BUT THE WV HIGHLANDS. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT MONDAY, SO MAINTAINED CHANCE THREAT MONDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 800 PM EDT MONDAY... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CIGS LINGERING IN THE WEST. IN SPITE OF CURRENT LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION...ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS STILL ALIGNED WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND WITH WIDESPREAD MOISTURE...LOW CIGS AND FOG LIKELY FOR THE MORNING PUSH WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDTIONS IF NOT LOWER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE MID ATLANTIC IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS...VSBYS...AND WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL IMPROVE MVFR CONDITION TO VFR CONDITIONS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...AND SETTLE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK. OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER POOR FOR LATE THIS WEEK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FOG.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB NEAR TERM...KK/PM SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PM

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