Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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856 FXUS61 KRNK 230050 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 850 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring warm and dry weather to the region this weekend through the first part of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 840 PM EDT Friday... Isolated convection has again faded out with loss of heating after a very warm afternoon for late September. This should leave the region with quiet weather under weak surface high pressure overnight. However will continue to see some inland push of mid/high clouds from the northeast that could result in cloudy periods espcly north/east early on. Think the residual canopy including some strato-cu should fade/thin later tonight as much drier air aloft advects in under stronger mid level ridging that looks to build in late. Otherwise will again see patchy to areas of fog where earlier heavy downpours occurred as well as in the valleys pending late clearing. Clouds may also tend to keep lows up more in the 60-65 range unless clearing can coincide with a slight drop in dewpoints toward dawn which would result in a few cooler 50s espcly west. Previous discussion as of 300 PM EDT Friday... No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems over the Atlantic remain too far offshore to impact our weather. Combination of diurnal instability, orographic effects, and some weak short wave energy will keep a chance/slight chance for showers/storms in the forecast from the southern Blue Ridge and portions of the NRV south into the mountains of NC. Any precipitation will fade quickly by early this evening with dry conditions for the overnight period. Expect another round of patchy fog/stratus development primarily west of the Blue Ridge. Any fog/low clouds will burn off early Saturday, followed by pleasant weather for the start of the weekend. Temperatures will be similar to previous days. Expect lows tonight in the lower 60s east of the Blue Ridge with mid 50s/around 60 to the west and some cooler readings in the valleys. Highs Saturday will be in the mid/upper 80s east to lower 80s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... A Rather quiet weather pattern through this period, with high pressure firmly in place near the mason dixon line, and continuing to build South along the central appalachians. Hurricane Maria is expected to drift North off of the southeast US coast, but likely remain far enough out to sea to limit impacts in our area through Monday. This setup would allow mostly sunny and dry conditions to remain in place. High Temperatures should remain steadily 5 to 10 degrees above normal during the period, topping out in the mid to upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s and low 80s prevalent across the higher elevations. Low temperatures would fall into the 50s and 60s, with patchy fog possible each morning, especially in the mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... High pressure will begin to progress north and east into the New England states by Tuesday, as Maria begins to slow and wobble off of the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. This will allow surface winds to shift to out of the East/Northeast, allowing low level atlantic moisture to build across the area Wednesday and Thursday. With subsidence still in place, don`t expect much in the way of shower activity, but cloud cover as a whole should increase, especially for those East of the Blue Ridge. A Persistence forecast trend in temperatures will continue through this time period. A cold front approaches from the north and west on Thursday, bringing the possibility of isolated to scattered showers across the area. Timing of the front, at least in the eyes of the GFS, doesn`t look favorable for significant shower coverage or intensity, but it should be enough to push the remnants of Maria far enough off shore to break us free from the easterly flow. Drier and more seasonable conditions should follow the front, and continue into the weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 710 PM EDT Friday... Isolated convection continues mainly between KMKJ-KHLX-KTNB this evening along an axis of lingering higher instability and low level easterly convergence. Expect most of this along with lower cigs to stay southwest of the TAF sites so not including any shra mention or lower cigs to start this evening. Otherwise again looking at mainly VFR this evening with a mix of strato-cu below passing mid/high canopy spilling inland from the remnants of Jose. Once any convection fades, main concern will be with fog formation espcly valleys pending the degree of clearing. Latest models not as agressive with fog/stratus overnight as last night given some drop off in dewpoints as drier air works in from the north later. This likely to keep most fog confined to the river valleys including KLWB and KBCB out to around KDAN. May also see some brief fog/stratus around KBLF late so included some degree of sub-VFR late at all locations excluding KROA/KLYH. Strong high pressure building in from the north on Saturday should result in widespread VFR once any low clouds/fog fade by mid morning. Winds should continue mostly easterly at 5-12 kts overall into Saturday afternoon. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast to prevail the rest of the weekend into early next week as strong high pressure aloft builds in from the northwest keeping tropical moisture offshore. This should also maintain good flying conditions along with mostly dry weather, outside of any late night/early morning fog from Sunday through Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...JH/MBS SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS

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