Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 020450 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1150 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build in from the southwest tonight into Saturday. The high moves overhead Sunday ahead of moisture that will work into the area well in advance of a developing storm system along the Gulf Coast early next week. This system should track west of the region by Tuesday with a trailing cold front working through the area during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Thursday... Rather benign but overall chilly period as low level northwest flow remains in place with high pressure gradually building in from the southwest into Friday. Passing shortwave energy aloft by this evening will again likely enhance upslope flow overnight with another surge possible Friday morning. This in response to a channeled vorticity lobe that will lift north across the Ohio Valley within a more zonal trajectory aloft by Friday afternoon. However tricky to the degree of lingering upslope moisture as models show some increase in western low clouds tonight into early Friday behind the initial impulse. This before drying develops from south to north Friday afternoon per latest Nam. Could still see a flurry northwest slopes overnight, otherwise dry but breezy again Friday as the jet aloft and low level mixing increases into Friday afternoon. Expect enough light mixing outside of the valleys/outlying areas to hold temps up some overnight so running with upper 20s to mid 30s most areas. Slightly colder air aloft along with another round of weak cold advection should keep highs mostly 40s west to slightly warmer low/mid 50s east where aided via downslope warming. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EST Thursday... A cool dry surface high, caught in the northern stream, will track from the Great Lakes Friday night to the Mid Atlantic region on Sunday. A closed low over the southwestern US will send a series of short waves and Gulf moisture towards the area on Sunday. With the northern and southern stream split, the region may just see an increase in cloud cover Sunday with some light precipitation falling over the mountains Sunday night into Monday. Depending on the amount and timing of evaporative cooling Sunday, some onset precipitation may fall as snow with any accumulation confided to elevated and/or grassy surfaces Sunday night. The region will remain under the influence of the northern stream, keeping temperatures cooler than normal. The coldest day of the week will be Sunday as the center of the high is directly over the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Thursday... A closed low will track out of the southwestern US early Monday morning and quickly move to the Midwest by Monday evening. This low will push warm moist air over the area and over a cool surface high with light rain developing from south to north. A surface low is forecasted to form in eastern Texas Monday afternoon then tracks to the Ohio Valley Tuesday. A secondary surface low forms over the eastern Gulf states Tuesday morning. This secondary low will bring the chance for moderate rain into the region Monday night into Tuesday. This system will move north of the region by Tuesday night. Either Wednesday or Thursday of next week, a strong cold front will bring bitterly cold temperatures to the area. Both the ECM and GFS have Friday afternoon highs in the 20s across the mountains and 30s east of the Blue Ridge. These are forecasted highs, not wind chills. Until next week`s front crosses the region, temperatures will run close to normal (mid to upper 40s west and low to mid 50s east). && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1145 PM EST Thursday... Northwest flow will keep stratocumulus banked up across the mountains into Friday morning, resulting in mainly high end MVFR/low end VFR cigs at KBLF/KLWB. Medium confidence on ceilings tonight. KLWB and KBLF may drop below 2000 feet before sunrise. Winds will be west to west-northwest with gusts 20 to 30 knots possible at higher elevations through Friday. Winds should weaken by Friday night given high pressure nosing in from the southwest. Extended aviation discussion... High pressure enters the area Saturday into early Sunday with VFR conditions. Will start to see moisture stream northeast from a low pressure system moving across the Gulf Coast states Sunday into Monday with increasing threat of mainly rain. Will likely see a period of sub-VFR cigs and possibly vsbys at most sites by Monday but confidence is low as to how far north MVFR or lower conditions will advance. A strong cold front will likely bring more in the way of widespread sub-VFR in rain and low cigs on Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/JH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.