Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010255 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1055 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL STALL FRONT HE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1015 PM EDT SUNDAY... RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN A QUICK ~0.5 INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. RAPID UPDATE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT HOWEVER THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FADE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY SEE THE ODD SHOWER PASS ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER 1 AM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA OVERALL THROUGH DAWN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS EVENING. LIKELY TO KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS. LOW PRESSURE ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT ONLY SLOWLY TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY... AND WILL CAUSE IT TO STALL TO OUR WEST FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSES OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...MODELS SLOWER EDGING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHEAST. NOW LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COUNTY WARNING AREA WELL WITHIN THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT BY TUESDAY. THE WAVY SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LESS HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND LESS COOLING AT NIGHT. BIGGEST THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY... EVEN WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...CONSENSUS IN HAS THE CLOSED LOW IS A FAVORABLE POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LESS CERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION THERE WILL BE OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WPC WAS FORECASTING A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST IS IT POSSIBLE FOR A SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BE WEDGES IN OVER THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COASTAL FRONT HELPING ENHANCE THE WEDGE. OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WET THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY... RADAR INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WITH ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LEFT ACROSS THE AREA. RAPID UPDATE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAWN MONDAY. CONSIDERING SCATTERED RAINFALL THIS EVENING...EXPECT FOG ALONG THE NEW RIVER UPSTREAM OF KBCB AND ON THE GREENBRIER RIVER IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING. HAVE ADDED LIFR FOG IN AT KLWB AND MVFR FOG IN FOR KBCB LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWED KDAN AGAIN WITH AN MVFR CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE ITS APPROACH ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS HINTING THAT THE FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA NEAR KLWB/KBLF BY AROUND 02/00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB/ KROA WILL EXPERIENCE TSRA ON STATION DURING THE 01/18Z TO 01/22Z TIMEFRAME. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT KLYH/KDAN WILL EXPERIENCE TSRA ON STATION AFTER 01/20Z. WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1SM WILL BE COMMON UNDER THE STRONG CELLS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING MONDAY EVENING... WHILE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK SUGGESTS LESS DRYING...WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/NF SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...AMS/NF

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