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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 160211
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1011 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 955 PM EDT SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
WATCHING SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE
MIDWEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAWN. MODELS COMING IN WEAKENING THE
MCS OVER IL AND KEEPING IT MAINLY NORTH OF US INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

KEPT SOME FOG IN LATE AS THINK CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED ESPCIALLY IN
THE PIEDMONT.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO ADJMAV WITH READINGS FROM THE
MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE EAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY. AS
THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO
WEST. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY ALLOWING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NW WILL PROGRESS SE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE PRECEDING THE FRONT LOOKS
TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
UPON PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE WEAK GIVEN DAMPENING UPPER SUPPORT AND
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW...SO ONLY OOZING CHANCE NATURE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
SE THROUGH LATE EVENING.

MODELS THEN DISAGREE TO SOME EXTENT ON HOW FAR SE THE FRONT
WILL GET BEFORE ENERGY WITH THE 5H TROF STARTS TO SLIDE EAST
AND HELPS LIFT THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH ON MONDAY/MONDAY NGT.
APPEARS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS GFS/EC BEST GIVEN THE MORE
SHUNTED NATURE TO THE LATEST NAM AND PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN. THIS
WOULD KEEP THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE FAR SW MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BETTER UVV ARRIVES WITH THE WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY. COULD SEE THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST GO DRY UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT PENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
ENDS UP...OTRW MAINLY SCTD SHRA COVERAGE WITH LIKELYS FAR SW INTO
MONDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE
LACKING EXCEPT IN THE SE PER CLOUDS ESPCLY IF THE WAVE TRACKS
FARTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD A BIT MORE DEEP CONVECTION
WITH A PROGGED DECENT 85H JET AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLN THAT
COULD PROVIDE MORE HEATING. THUS MAINLY LIKELY POPS
TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT HWO MENTION ESPCLY FOR THE
EASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.

WAVE/FRONT EXITS A BIT QUICKER TUESDAY EVENING ON A DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD END MOST SHRA EARLY ON WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS MUGGY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WEST MONDAY AND MID/UPPER 80S EAST...COOLING TO MOSTLY
70S TO LOW 80S SE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

RESIDUAL 5H TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE FOR THE
MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE FLATTENING A BIT TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND AHEAD OF MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
THIS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH EARLIER IN
THE WEEK SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSIENT AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
TO WORK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK...TO ALONG/OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF DRYING
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPCLY WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSING THURSDAY...AND LIGHT EAST/SE
FLOW UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN A MORE UNIFORM SW TRAJECTORY WILL TAKE
SHAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH HEATING AND LEFTOVER COOL AIR ALOFT
LIKELY ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA
ESPCLY WEST...WITH LESS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BY WEEKS END AS
HEIGHTS START TO BUILD A BIT. TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD GIVEN WEAK COOL ADVECTION MIDWEEK
AND THEN MORE SE FLOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN A BUMP INTO THE 80S LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NW FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.

ON SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
LESS FOG COVERAGE POTENTIAL OVERALL. MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR LWB
AND BCB TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY WITH INSTABILITY AND
HUMIDITY INCREASING. AT THE MOMENT ADDED VCTS AT BLF/LWB AS THEY
SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN AND AROUND THERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE STORMS AS FAR EAST AS BCB/ROA BUT CHANCES OF
THAT ARE 30 PERCENT OR LESS. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ASOS OBSERVATION FROM BLUEFIELD (BLF) REMAINS UNAVAILABLE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE BECAUSE OF A POWER OUTAGE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB/WP
EQUIPMENT...RAB