Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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154 FXUS61 KRNK 280839 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 439 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO VIRGINIA AND COLD FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EDT THURSDAY... A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MSAS ANALYSIS AT 08Z/4AM SHOWED STABLE AIR HAD ADVANCED SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND WELL INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN RETREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH HOW FAR EAST AND NORTH THE COOLER...STABLE AIR WILL PULL BACK. THIS WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON HOW TEMPERATURES TODAY. PLACES THAT REMAIN IN THE COOLER AIR WILL HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. RADAR SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF DANVILLE AND LYNCHBURG BEFORE 10AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE WARM...UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY... THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY BUT AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE LINGERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND THIS LOOKS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE FAR NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THIS TROF ERODES HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL BRING COOLER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY LATE SATURDAY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION AND PUSH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE A GOOD AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE MID WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT OVER THIS WEDGE OF COOL AIR. WARM MOIST AIR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO KICK THIS WEDGE AND RAIN EAST AND OFF SHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH MAY HANG OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR DRY SPELL BRIEF. MONDAY TEMPERATURES COULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH NEAR 70F WEST AND MID 70S EAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER BASED ON THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY... FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WHEN KDAN AND KBCB WILL LOWER TO IFR CEILINGS. THE FRONT WILL STALL THEN RETREAT EAST LATER TODAY. HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS IN FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW AT KLYH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE WAS MOVING EAST. MODELS BRING THIS PRECIPITATION INTO KLWB AND KBLF AREA AROUND 12Z/8AM. LOWER CONFIDENCE OF THE INTENSITY OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE TIME THEY REACH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. LOCATIONS ON THE WARM...WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR INCLUDING LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE RESIDUAL STALLED FRONT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/JH

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