Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 261246 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 746 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 AM EST MONDAY... THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. ALREADY OBSERVING WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 77...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT. LOOKING AT A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA... TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...AND PERHAPS A RAIN SNOW MIX OR RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INDICATE A DUSTING OF SNOW AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS...SOME OF WHICH IS STICKING TO ROADWAY SURFACES. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST TODAY...APPROACHING THE COAST BY AROUND NOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW DURING THE MORNING... EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CAPPING HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MAKING MORE TIME FOR WARMING...WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW SWITCHES TO THE IDEAL DIRECTION TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING IN THIS AREA TO INCLUDE THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE WEST FACING RIDGES. BELIEVE THAT MOST SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE ON MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES DUE TO THE RECENT MILD WEATHER...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAY SURFACES/SLICK CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER AIR ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES SOUTHWARD IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES DECREASES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS...GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. COLDER AIR BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO NEAR 30 OVER THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY... A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3 INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30- 40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR 40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF. WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER THAN THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 715 AM EST MONDAY... A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING WESTERLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 77...WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MOST CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION ARE VFR..IN THE 3KFT TO 6KFT RANGE...HOWEVER BANDS OF SNOW/RAIN PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ARE MAKING FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST THIS MORNING...REACHING THE COAST BY AROUND 18Z. BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHER RIDGES RECEIVING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WHILE THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PIEDMONT CAN EXPECT A RAIN SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY... WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BY 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO DRAG COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...CAUSING RAIN TO INCREASINGLY CHANGE OVER TO UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW BANDS DURING THE EVENING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES LOCALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...KBLF/KLWB...TO 2SM TO 4SM AT TIMES. SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS KBCB/KROA CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...CAN ALSO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AREAWIDE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR/IFR TO REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. && .EQUIPMENT... HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-020-024. NC...NONE. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...NF SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...NF EQUIPMENT...AMS

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