Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 290742 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 342 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THIS EVENING...THEN OUT TO SEA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY... FORECAST CENTERED AROUND NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE VERSUS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. RADAR SHOWING RAIN MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE VA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WITH ANOTHER NARROW AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS FAR SW VA INTO WV. 05Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THROUGH DAWN...SHOWING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MOISTURE. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW AS ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE MAIN NOSE OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET SHOVED EAST. APPEARS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BE MORE IN LINE TO GET A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR SO COMPARED TO THE NW CWA...ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM/CMC SHOWING DRIER AIR ERODING CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN WEAK LOW IN THE LOW LVLS THE MOISTURE MAY BE HARDER TO SCOUR OUT...WITH LINGERING STRATOCU HANGING IN. NONETHELESS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE EXITS THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IN THE MTNS. SOME CLEAR TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO FOG FORMATION AS NO APPRECIABLE WINDS TO KEEP THINGS MIXED. AS FOR TEMPS...TRICKY TODAY GIVEN EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. INSITU WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE. STILL TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY EAST. COUNTING ON SOME LIMITED INSOLATION AND A MILD START TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE WEST TO ALLOW FOR LOWER 70S AS WELL ACROSS SE WV...PORTIONS OF SW VA. LOWS TONIGHT TO STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. LOOKING AT MOST PLACES GETTING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY... UPPER TROF CURVES OUT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHICH TRACKS EASTWARD TO OFF THE ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM GULF DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN AND WARMING OF THICKNESS EXPECTED TUESDAY...THUS WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. LEANED LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH ROTATES EAST WEDNESDAY...ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 70S. THE BULK OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ABUNDANT WITH A THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND AS WINDS TURN TO THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY HELP SCOUR CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE THEY SPREAD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SHAPED HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MOS FROM AROUND 70 IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST. AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWED FOR SOME LIGHT POPS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED CONTINUITY LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 310 AM EDT MONDAY... THE WEDGE WILL ERODE AND BREAK THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY EVENING. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN /0.25/ WILL FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS /0.10/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WE DO EXPECTED SHOWERS TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES ARE NOT LOOKING STRONG...THEREFORE MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE ALSO MOVING THIS FRONT FASTER ACROSS THE REGION...CLEARING THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORT WAVE PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE TO NO GREAT LAKES TRAJECTORY...WE WILL JUST CALL SATURDAY A RAIN FREE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EAST...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HIGHS WILL RUN 5F-10F COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 118 AM EDT MONDAY... THE MOISTURE SPREADING NWD INTO OUR AREA WILL BE MAINLY IN VFR IN TERMS OF CIGS. MODELS ARE KEEPING A HEAVIER QPF/RAIN TO THE SOUTH BUT STRETCH SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY OUT EAST. MOST TERMINALS WILL LIGHT RAIN TODAY BUT OBSCURATION TO VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY 6SM OR GREATER. UNTIL THEN THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT SOME IN LWB TO ALLOW FOR FOR DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY MODERATE FOR MVFR. THROUGH THE DAY...CIGS WILL LOWER BUT STAY GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH BLF COULD DROP TO MVFR AFTER 17Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT LWB/BLF...PERHAPS BCB. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SUB VFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COULD LEAD TO SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH US BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB VFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK/RCS AVIATION...NF/PM/WP

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