Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 261803 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 103 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF NOON EST MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD WITH UPPER TROF AXIS AND COLDER AIR SOON TO FOLLOW. AT 11AM THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER EASTERN WV WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KY/TN. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF THE LOW WERE IN THE 30S/40S WITH SOME SUN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC. NORTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WV HIGHLANDS WHERE ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA...AND THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC...FROM MOUNT ROGERS VA TO BEECH MOUNTAIN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ONE FOR THE NC HIGH COUNTRY TOO...ESP FOR ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES THEN TAKING A TUMBLE. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ACROSS THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND NEW RIVER VALLEY...AN INCH OR LESS...THIS SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND IN TANDEM WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING...INGREDIENTS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE EVEN WITH JUST A LITTLE COATING OF SNOW. FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD MITIGATE ANY EVENING COMMUTE CONCERNS. NEVER THE LESS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A TUMBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THE MEDIA FOCUS WILL BE ON COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHERE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WRAP UP INTO A MAJOR WINTER STORM. FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WE GET TO DEAL WITH THE BACKLASH WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THEIR IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL STORM TO PENETRATE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS THEIR MAY BE A NEED FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF LYNCHBURG...SPECIFICALLY APPOMATTOX...BUCKINGHAM AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT ADVERTISING MUCH PRECIP WITHIN OUR LOCAL FORECAST...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC...LOTS OF ENERGY ALOFT THAT WILL CAUSE THIS STORM TO DEEPEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HAVE EVEN SEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT WHICH IS AN INDICATOR OF HOW UNSTABLE THIS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING AND THE POTENTIAL ENERGY THAT IS BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING TO FEED OFF OF ONCE IT GETS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND CERTAINLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR COASTAL BOMBOGENESIS TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH QPF...AND IT WAS A BIT INTERESTING TO SEE ALL THE QPF THE 06Z GFS MODEL WAS PAINTING OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING...YET NOT MUCH WAS OCCURRING...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. WHAT REALLY MADE IT HUMOROUS WAS THE MODEL THEN TOOK THE 4-6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF AND CONVERTED IT TO ALL SNOW. ANYONE ISSUING FORECASTS AND BLINDLY FOLLOWING GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WOULD HAVE THEN EXPERIENCED A GOOD TASTE OF METEOROLOGICAL CANCER...A GARBAGE IN...GARBAGE OUT SORT OF FORECAST. QPF ISSUES ASIDE...THE IMPACT FROM THIS STORM FOR OUR LOCAL AREA WILL BE MINOR COMPARED TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH. I.E. NOTHING WE HAVN`T SEE BEFORE. IN SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR OUR MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BECOME BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20MPH...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. A 40 MPH GUST OVER THE NC/VA/WV HIGHLANDS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...TO NEAR 30 IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY... A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3 INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30- 40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR 40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF. WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER THAN THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 100 PM EST MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DEVELOPING INTO A MAJOR COASTAL STORM FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS PER A SHALLOW MOIST NORTHEAST WIND. ONCE THE NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS THIS EVENING...THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIFT. HOWEVER...CLOUD BASES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS OF MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS KBLF/KLWB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBCB DUE TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ WAS OFF THE AIR THIS MORNING. TECHNICIANS ARE ONSITE. THE ROANOKE TRANSMITTER...POOR MOUNTAIN 162.475 MHZ...IS ALSO EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS WITH INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. TECHNICIANS ARE ONSITE THERE ALSO.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-020-024. NC...NONE. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PM EQUIPMENT...AMS/PM

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