Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 211950 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 350 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION IS DEPARTING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GENERATE A FEW EVENING SPRINKLES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY ALONG THE RIDGES BUT SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY DECOUPLE AS CLOUDS DECREASE LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MIX DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING PLEASANT AND COOL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE TO PUT A SLIGHT CHILL IN THE AIR AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOOKING AT A NICE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...STARTING THE WEEKEND NEAR NORMAL AND THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TO FINISH OFF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN A WARMING TREND...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND CONFIDENCE LOW TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WORDING INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY... WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION. FORCING WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND IS QUICKLY TAKING ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EXTENDING UPSTREAM BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE INTO THE EVENING...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE STEADILY IMPROVE. EXPECT IFR TO BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT AT KBLF/KLWB WITH MVFR AT KBCB. KROA/KLYH/KDAN SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING WITH A WET ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR STRATUS/FOG REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. HEATING TOMORROW WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND ESTABLISH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT NW FLOW TO BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY EARLY AT KROA AND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...MBS/PC

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