Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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681 FXUS61 KRNK 040843 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 343 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST TODAY...PASSING OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST. AT THIS TIME THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 237 AM EST THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE AND STALL OVER THE COASTAL PIEDMONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GENERATING A SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS REFLECTION WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BUCKLE BACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN EAST OF HWY 29. THIS REFLECTION WILL INCREASE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS SPEEDS LOWER. WITH LESS WESTERLY WINDS...UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED. THEREFORE WE HAVE REDUCED POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO WITH THE FRONT STALLING FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY WARM THAN NORMAL WITH 40S WEST TO LOWER AND MID 50S EAST. AS THIS REFLECTION MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWERS 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 328 AM EST THURSDAY... MODELS SEEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL STAY SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF CAST STATES SAT NIGHT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR SUNDAY AS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SNEAK NWD TOWARD SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT EXPECT BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO STAY ON THE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY... ONLY CHANGE THIS PERIOD WAS TO GO WITH PTYPE CHANGE TO MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF RAIN MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS MODELS SHOW 8H TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO AND THICKNESSES SUPPORTING MOSTLY SNOW. WILL KEEP SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TEMPS ABOVE 42F...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING VERY COLD FOR EARLY-MID WEEK WITH -10 TO -16C AIR PUSHING INTO THE MTNS BY MIDWEEK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW A VIGOROUS UPPER TROF TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN US AND DEVELOP A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE LATE ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A MUCH DEEPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN US AND SET UP A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER PATTERN...WHILE A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION SO WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ISSUES ARE NOT LIKELY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 20S WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE RIDGE.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM EST THURSDAY... THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH A COLD GROUND AND WARM AIR...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT BCB/ROA/LYH. AS THE FRONT JOGS EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MIXING WILL INCREASE SCOUR FOG AT BCB/ROA AROUND 09Z THURSDAY AND AT LYH AROUND 11Z. ALL SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL LIFT AT ROA/BCB/LYH/DAN AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...BLF/LWB WILL DROP TO MVFR AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG WESTERN SLOPES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...BUT A HIGHER CHANCE TOWARDS EVENING AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TO PROVIDE COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF US SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP AND MVFR CIGS EDGING TOWARD THE VA/NC BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY ALL RIVERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ROANOKE AREA HAVE CRESTED AND FALLEN BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WILL SEE RISES TO AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE DOWNSTREAM OF BROOKNEAL ON THE ROANOKE RIVER...AND DOWNSTREAM OF WENTWORTH NC ON THE DAN RIVER. MAY APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AT RANDOLPH AND SOUTH BOSTON BY FRIDAY MORNING.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...MBS/WP AVIATION...RCS HYDROLOGY...WP

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