Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 221947 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 347 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure from the Ohio Valley to the southern Plains will move south tonight. A fast moving clipper will move east through the upper Midwest on Sunday, bringing a cold front through our region late Sunday night or early Monday. High pressure will then build southeast from the upper midwest and across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states from Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Saturday... Visible satellite pictures showed upslope northwest flow continued but more breaks were forming in the cloud cover. KFCX and KRLX radars showed little to no showers sprinkles left in the area, although the -shra at Beckley indicated at least a few sprinkles still remain. High-resolution guidance held the upslope precipitation in the mountains through 00Z/8PM, with the clouds then dissipating by 03Z/11PM. No changed needed to Frost Advisory for tonight. An axis of surface high pressure will be oriented over the Tennessee Valley on the western side of the mountains with another weaker ridge axis developing through western North Carolin and into the southern Virginia piedmont. This will result in diminishing winds, with winds 3MPH or less in the Mountain Empire area. Otherwise models kept winds in the 4 to 9 knot range, with winds potentially a little stronger at the higher elevations. So widespread frost still expected across much of Tazwell and Smyth counties. The western slopes of Watauga county and Mountain Lake will also have frost but not expected to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Models showed a pockets of isentropic lift and moisture late tonight crossing the Tennessee Valley into southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. This may impact the coverage of frost. Have gone below guidance for minimum temperatures tonight, especially in locations that have not warmed out of the lower 40s so far today and at the higher elevations that were still in the 30s. High-resolutionARW was used as a starting point for the maximum temperatures on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... The period will start with a high amplitude ridge in the west and the lingering closed low over eastern Canada creating a mean trof in the east. As the closed low opens up it will allow mean ridging to spread east out of the Rockies, but the ridge is noisy with short wave energy. In terms on sensible weather we can expect an overall dry period, though a low scooting by to our north will push a cold front into the region late Sunday night into Monday which may bring some upslope showers to the western slopes of the Appalachians in West Virginia into the Alleghany Highlands along with some gusty winds. A large area of high pressure then builds in behind the front with quiet and cooler conditions through Tuesday. Temperatures will be close to normal on Monday but will trend downward behind the front and there looks to be a good chance for widespread frost by Tuesday morning for locations still in the active growing season west of the Blue Ridge. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Saturday... Cool high pressure will bring us one more quiet day as it wedges down the east side of the Appalachians on Wednesday. Then, a deepening short wave will move out of the Great Lakes region and take up a position as a closed low off the mid Atlantic coast. The accompanying surface low will push a cold front through the area with a good chance of precipitation in the late Thursday/Thursday night timeframe. High pressure arrives behind the front with fair weather expected into the weekend with just some lingering showers along the western slopes on Friday. With cool high pressure over the region for most of the period and a late week cold front, expect temperatures to be running a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Saturday... MVFR ceilings will continue in the mountains for the rest of the day with ceilings gradually lifting and then becoming scattered. Isolated light showers may occasionally bring ceilings down to 2500 feet at KLWB this afternoon. Based on short term models, medium confidence that clouds will clear out of KBLF and KLWB by 03Z/11PM. VFR conditions are expected east of the Blue Ridge. Pressure gradient will continue to result in gusty northwest winds today with surface gusts of 15-30 kts. Winds will subside tonight. Extended aviation discussion... Sunday through Monday...Widespread VFR. No flight restrictions. High pressure building in over the Tennessee Valley then southeast United States will result in lighter wind speeds. Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each morning, otherwise widespread VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ007-009. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/PM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.