Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 092015 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 315 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system rotates into the area tonight with windy conditions and mountain snow showers. Weak high pressure builds in briefly Monday before clipper arrives Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Saturday... The deformation snow band will be exiting stage right later this afternoon/early this evening, just as low pressure moving through the Great Lakes pushes a cold front into the region from the west. There will be a good push of cold air behind the front and the low level wind field will steadily amplify overnight. This will create upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge along with very gusty winds. A couple of inches of accumulation are possible for the higher elevations, with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches for western Greenbrier county. While no snow accumulations are expected further east, wet and slushy roadways will become slick as falling temperatures refreeze roadways. Expect wind gusts will generally be less than 40MPH so no wind advisory is planned at this time. Upslope snow showers wind down to flurries Sunday morning, but gusty conditions will persist before gradually slackening during the afternoon. Temperatures will be well below normal through Sunday with lows tonight in the teens to lower 20s and highs Sunday in the upper 30s/near 40 east of the Blue Ridge, low/mid 30s west. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EST Saturday... Changes were not made to this period due to busy near term weather. Previous valid discussion from Friday afternoon... Flurries may linger into the mountains thru Monday. Somewhat blustery conditions look to continue through the first part of next week as the wind field remains energized by numerous short waves zipping through fast upper level flow. Temperatures will remain well below normal into the first part of next week. Many locations will see departures of 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM EST Friday... Amplified upper pattern featuring a western ridge and eastern trof will persist through next week, though some deamplification looks to occur toward the end of the week. The main storm track will keep areas of low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into New England with trailing cold fronts pushing reinforcing shots of cold air into the Appalachians with occasional bouts of snow showers west of the Blue Ridge. The fast moving pattern will also keep a good amount of energy in the low level wind field with blustery conditions through the period. With little change to the cold pattern in place, expect temperatures to remain well below normal through the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Saturday... The deformation snow band will be exiting stage right later this afternoon/early this evening, just as low pressure moving through the Great Lakes pushes a cold front into the region from the west. This will allow flight conditions to trend to VFR east of the Blue Ridge, while locations west of the Ridge will rabidly descend to MVFR/IFR early tonight. There will be a good push of cold air behind the front and the low level wind field will steadily amplify overnight. This will create upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge along with very gusty winds. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in snow and blowing snow at KBLF and KLWB. Expect some MVFR cigs to make it to KBCB but any precipitation will likely be flurries. Wind gusts will start to increase early tonight with gusts at or above 30kt for KROA through daybreak. Gust conditions will spread east of the Piedmont Sunday morning as diurnal heating mixed the boundary layer and allows higher momentum air to reach the surface. Upslope snow showers wind down to flurries Sunday morning, but gusty conditions will persist before gradually slackening during the afternoon. Extended Discussion... VFR conditions then return Sunday evening through Monday. Next chance for sub-VFR conditions is with a clipper system Tuesday, particularly in the western mountains. These sub-VFR could linger into Wednesday as northwest flow continues. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ009-012>014-022>024. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ015>017-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...MBS/WP LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...MBS/WP

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