Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 151742 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 142 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track northeast and push a strong cold front through the area tonight. High pressure follows the front for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM EDT Sunday... Extended the DFA until 11 am this morning because of slower trends. Low clouds and fog lifting very slowly this morning. High pressure breaks down ahead of a frontal system approaching the area from the northwest. Regional radar loop clearly marks the cold front to our west in the Ohio Valley. Our current timing of the front looks reasonable. Increased cloud cover for this morning in the ISC grids. Adjusted temperatures with surface obs, trends and shaped towards the GLAMP for late morning into early afternoon. More changes later this morning. As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...high pressure breaks down ahead of a frontal system advancing into the area from the northwest. Lead axis of positive vorticity advection arrives tonight as the long wave trof moves into the Great Lakes and 500 MB heights begin to fall. Today may the last day for quite some time with 850MB temperatures around +16. Models continue to advertise strong cold air advection behind the front tonight with 850MB temperatures dropping to into the +4 to +12 range by Monday morning. NAM/GFS and 3KM NAMNest all similar with timing of the front. Front will reach Bluefield around 11PM and pass through Danville before 8AM Monday. Modest northwest low level jet of 30 knots behind the front along with 6MB/6hr so will maintain breezy conditions already in the forecast for higher elevations. Some spread in solutions today for maximum temperatures. GFS and LAV have piedmont clearing out by mid morning and temperature rising into the lower to mid 80s. MEt guidance holds clouds in longer and only has highs in the upper 70s. Since moisture is shallow and should not take long to clear out will lean toward warmer numbers for highs. Mixing and clouds will limit drop in temperatures despite significant change in air mass. Blend of MET/MAV guidance looks reasonable for lows. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Sunday... Lingering precipitation chances associated with the departing cold front possible across the eastern sections of the CWA early Monday but once that is done a return to dry conditions is expected into mid-week. High pressure will dominate through the period with the surface high drifting slowly east from the mid- Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Patchy frost is possible Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday as temps fall into the 30s west and low 40s east. Daytime highs 50s west to 60 east Monday/Tuesday with slow warmup by Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place and amplify over the Mid-Atlantic region through the extended period. A very dry airmass will reside over the area through the entire period providing clear/sunny skies. 850mb temperatures will slowly moderate as a 590dm ridge builds over the area aloft. Temperatures will moderate well back into the 70s by then end of the extended period, even approaching 80 degrees in the Piedmont. No rain is expected at all during this period, so have left all pops for all areas at zero! . Have held off on any precipitation in the TAFs expect for KBLF with showers reaching airport after 02Z/10PM.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 142 PM EDT Sunday... SCT to BKN MVFR clouds expected this afternoon into this evening. A cold front with associated showers will approach the area this evening and move southeast through the Mid Atlantic region tonight into Monday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected with the showers, mainly between 01Z/9PM and 07Z/3AM. Pockets of IFR ceilings are possible Monday morning. Guidance has shown good continuity with the timing of the front. Medium confidence in ceilings, visibilities and winds during the taf period. Extended Aviation Discussion... The cold front will head offshore on Monday night, which will allow conditions to improve to VFR by Tuesday. High pressure will return to provide good flying weather through Saturday.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...KK

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