Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 172254 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 654 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday... Beautiful October blue skies today will stay clear tonight, as high pressure stays fixed over the area, more centered over the piedmont than the mountains. With another day of drying out the low levels, should see less fog than this morning but with dewpoints in the 30s, and good radiational conditions, expect frost to from across most of the forecast area, but more specifically in rural/farmland areas/pastures and river and mountain valleys. Urban areas like Lynchburg/Roanoke and Danville should stay frost free, outside some patches here and there. Lows tonight will be in the 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the mountain valleys, but not enough coverage of 32 or below for a freeze warning. Those areas that can expect freezing temperatures including Burkes Garden and portions of the Greenbrier and New River valleys, so plan accordingly in terms of plant protection. Not much change Wednesday with high pressure in control. A few models show some cirrus moving overhead Wednesday morning as upper flow turns more southwest with weak upper impulse moving through. Otherwise sunny skies with highs in the mid 60s to near 70, except lower 60s higher ridges. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic region through Thursday night. A very dry airmass will result in large nocturnal/diurnal temperature swings. It will be mostly clear and cold with light winds Wednesday night. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will range from the lower 30s in the mountains to the lower 40s in the piedmont. Bright sunshine expected Thursday with low minimum humidity readings. However, winds will remain light westerly. High temperatures Thursday will vary from the around 60 in the mountains to the mid 70s in the piedmont. Mostly clear and cool conditions will prevail Thursday night into Friday morning with low temperatures generally from the mid 30s in the west to the lower 40s in the east. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday... Amplified upper ridge over the Southeast will continue dry and warm weather heading into the weekend. Saturday night into Sunday, the ridge axis begins to move east as the trough deepens into the middle of the country. The trough axis will move into the Ohio Valley Monday and rotate eastward into Tuesday. The trough axis should be located along the on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree on the depth and strength of trough and where to close off a southern low. Despite the fact that the location is different, both solutions showed a low closing off, upper flow turning more southwest, and an influx of moisture. This should result in an increasing chances of showers early next week. Temperatures staying above normal through Sunday, then a cooling trend expected Monday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 650 PM EDT Tuesday... High pressure will keep good flying conditions in place with overall VFR through the valid taf period. Exceptions could be fog at KLWB/KBCB again late tonight pending frost, but with another day of drying fog should be more limited to over the rivers/lakes. However with most guidance showing a period of fog late in some of the valleys will continue a brief TEMPO group for IFR to MVFR vsbys late. Extended Aviation Discussion... High pressure will remain over the region into Sunday with VFR weather expected through the weekend.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ007- 009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ001>004- 018>020. WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ042>044- 507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

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