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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 150606
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
206 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 905 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A BAND OF STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NW WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION SEEN OFF THE
EVENING RNK SOUNDING. HOWEVER DRY ENTRAINMENT HAS BASICALLY
ELIMINATED THE SHRA THREAT AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY
POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. OTRW SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
AND COOL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ABOUT OVERHEAD THE
WEST BY MORNING. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S STILL
EXPECTING SOME 40S IN THE VALLEYS WITH OVERALL COMFORTABLE 50S
ELSW. SOME SPOTTY FOG POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS FOR THE
MOST PART.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE STRATOCUMULUS AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR
HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER
WEST VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE...AND WITH A CLEAR SKY EXPECT VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR COOLING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ADDED SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. PLAYED LOWS CLOSE TO THE COOLER
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. DRY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE WEST
TO THE MID 80S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO GET ACTIVE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND DEEP SW TO WEST FLOW
INCREASING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AGAIN. SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY ON
WHICH MTN CONVECTION FORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED. GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A SFC TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION BUT PLACEMENT VARIES. MAJORITY SHOWS
BETTER THREAT ARRIVING INTO THE WRN CWA AFTER MIDDAY MONDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS ADDED. KEPT HIGH CHANCE IN THE EAST. AT THE MOMENT SPC
AND MODELS INDICATING LOWER THREAT OF SVR WITH DYNAMICS LACKING AS
STRONG WIND FIELDS STAY NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. STILL LOOKS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED SVR COULD OCCUR.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THINKING MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL
KEEP MONDAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
90 SOUTHEAST TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. MONDAY WILL HAVE
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST AND MID TO UPPER 70S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED
YESTERDAYS. STILL DEFINITELY A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. TIMING SUGGESTS MOST
ACTIVITY TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.

FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA MIDWEEK.
AT THIS TIME...OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PARKING ITSELF IN THE MID ATLANTIC. SFC WINDS TURN FROM NORTH TO
EAST/SOUTHEAST THU-FRI NEXT WEEK SO THAT IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NEARBY TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES. KEPT
POPS LOW FOR NOW GIVEN SFC PATTERN.

CONDITIONS WARM/MUGGY MON NIGHT-TUESDAY START TO COOL A LITTLE
BEHIND THE FRONT FRONT TUE NIGHT-THU. TEMPS STILL STAY SEASONAL INTO
FRIDAY GIVEN THE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST...SOUTHEAST AND
LIGHT...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO CLIMB SOME AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 150 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD WILL BECOME MORE W-SW THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...BRINGING AND END TO THE SCT-BKN LOW/MID CLOUDS THAT
LINGERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI. ALL LOW CIGS DISSIPATED SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. NW FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING CI TO THE CWA LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT REMAINING WITH VFR CIGS. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG AT
THE USUAL SPOTS POSSIBLE...LWB/LYH/BCB WITH T/TD SPREAD ALREADY
NEAR 0F AT THESE LOCATIONS AND VERY MOIST GROUND...OTHERWISE VFR
VSBY AFTER 13Z. WINDS WNW 5-7KTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN BECOMING SSW-S
OR CALM AFT 00Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING NEAR/OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BLF.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT HIGH
CONFIDENCE ROA/DAN/BLF.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...OTHERWISE VFR. THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNS
BEHIND THE FRONT UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

WILL CONTINUE A TAF FOR KBLF BUT INCLUDE AMD NOT SKED DUE TO
MISSING OBS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ASOS OBSERVATION FROM BLUEFIELD (BLF) REMAINS UNAVAILABLE DUE TO A
POWER OUTAGE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RAB
EQUIPMENT...RAB