Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 222001 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 401 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front from Pennsylvania to northern Georgia will move southeast and stall across North Carolina by Tuesday as high pressure wedges down the Appalachians. Yet another area of low pressure will arrive midweek with added rainfall likely for Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will be the drier day this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300PM EDT Monday... Water vapor loop showed a well defined short wave over Arkansas early this afternoon. Models track this feature into southern Virginia overnight. Surface and 850MB front cross the area this afternoon, but with little change in air mass behind it. 850MB winds back to the southeast by midnight brining the deep moisture north along the Blue Ridge and foothills. Best convergence will be from 12-18Z/8AM-2PM Tuesday. GFS may have some convective feedback and may be moving the wave too fast and too far northeast compared to other guidance. Some decent isentropic lift on the 3km NAM Tuesday morning. Leaned toward NAM and WPC for QPF .WIll have to monitor amounts since some locations have had lots of rain in the past 72 hours and have saturated soils as a result. Surface front reaches central North Carolina as high pressure moves from West Virginia into Pennsylvania. By Tuesday morning the in-situ wedge will be in place down the Appalachians aided by precipitation on the cool side of the front. Clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures down on Tuesday. Trending toward cooler guidance for maximum temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Large upper trof will be traversing the eastern US, keeping us in a wet pattern through the period. Multiple waves along the front to our east will be pulling away from the region Tuesday night. However, a low over the Ohio valley will be captured by the upper trof as it closes off and the stacked system will wrap up a cold front a push it into our area from the west Wednesday morning. There will be a bit of an in-situ wedge ahead of the front to limit instability and convective development, but good isentropic lift and dynamic support will make for widespread rainfall and some possibly some embedded thunder from lift over the stable layer. Also, there may be a very narrow window just ahead of the front where the wedge has weakened that may allow for deeper instability to support elevated convection in a highly sheared environment. While the overall probability of severe weather is low, the situation bears watching until fropa occurs early Wednesday night. Expect some lessening of showers overnight Wednesday night in muddy dry slot of stacked low spinning over the Ohio valley. Diurnal heating will pop showers and thunderstorms with steepening mid/upper lapse rates under the cold pool aloft as the upper trof swings through. Small hail/graupel in low topped convection look possible mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Showers/storms taper quickly with loss of heating in the evening, leaving some lingering upslope precipitation west of the Ridge into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Our unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend as a progressive upper ridge moves across the eastern US, followed by the development of another closed low moving through the upper midwest. This will allow a frontal boundary to sink into the region from the north and stall on Saturday, with a series of waves shearing off to our north dragging along weak, occluded fronts. While not likely a complete washout, we look to keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend and into the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Monday... Last of the stable air and IFR stratus was moving out of southwest Virginia as seen on satellite pictures and as depicted on the Lifted Index analysis. Winds had come around to the west for the rest of the area. A cold front extended from southwest Pennsylvania to northern Georgia with scattered thunderstorms beginning to develop along and ahead of the front in northern North Carolina. Have a TEMPO group in the KDAN taf for thunderstorms late this afternoon. There will be a break in the precipitation this evening then once this front advances farther into North Carolina deeper moisture will return into southern Virginia with a wedge of high pressure developing along with widespread light to moderate rain. Models showed the best lift from 12Z/8AM through 18Z/2PM Tuesday. Expect MVFR to IFR clouds to develop after midnight as surface and low level winds back to the southeast Tuesday morning. High confidence on the occurrence of MVFR ceilings and visibilities with medium confidence on the timing. Extended Aviation Discussion... The chance of precipitation continues Wednesday and Thursday with sub-VFR conditions associated with any of the precipitation. Friday will be drier with a better chance of VFR ceilings and visibilities. Another front reaches the area for Saturday with more precipitation and sub-VFR conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 PM EDT Monday... An inch to inch and a half of rain is expected tonight and Tuesday. Amounts will have to be monitored as some locations along the Virginia/North Carolina border, especially Carrol, Patrick and Henry Counties in Virginia and Stokes, Rockingham, and Caswell Counties in North Carolina. FFG along parts of the southern Blue Ridge was in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. More rainfall is expected Wednesday and Thursday, which could lead to small stream and river flooding. Models continue to favor areas along/east of the Blue Ridge, possibly resulting in another 1 to 3 inches of rain. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...AMS/JH HYDROLOGY...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.