Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 281856 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 256 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW YORK AND WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 124 PM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. SINCE WINDS ARE DECREASING...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. WITH DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80S EAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 3F OR SO COOLER THAN NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH THIS FLOW ALOFT...WE CAN EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURE RISE TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH COMBINATION OF SOLAR HEATING AND DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL PIVOT NORTH OF AREA. THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS US IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH APPEARS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SPC IS MORE IMPRESSED WITH MARGINAL POTENTIAL ON DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. TAPER POPS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HOLD ON TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEST. LOWS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE INTO THIS EVENING. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL EDGE INTO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION ISSUE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...KK LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...RCS EQUIPMENT...DS

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