Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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652 FXUS61 KRNK 250043 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 843 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to bring mainly warm and dry weather to the region through midweek, while Hurricane Maria stays just off the east coast. A dry cold front will move through the Appalachians and mid Atlantic region on Thursday, with much cooler weather for the end of the workweek into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 840 PM EDT Sunday... Evening soundings show lingering very dry air aloft beneath a swath of high level moisture associated with cirrus fanning out to the northwest of Maria. This trend looks to continue overnight with periodic thicker canopy making for intervals of partly cloudy skies espcly south. Otherwise should be mainly clear through high clouds, while fog coverage likely inhibited via drying from earlier and lingering rather low dewpoints this evening. Still appears that could see some fog/stratus western river valleys so leaving in a mention given cooling under light winds. Since not quite as dry or clear as last night, expect lows to stay a bit milder with only the valleys dropping well into the 50s, while overall expecting upper 50s/lower 60s. Previous discussion as of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Fair weather pattern continues with high pressure surface and aloft yielding warm and dry conditions across the region. Expect cirrus from Maria off the coast to veil the sky over most locations through tomorrow, but this should not hinder radiational cooling too much overnight and expect late night valley fog to develop west of the Blue Ridge. Fair and warm conditions continue for Monday, but a northeasterly breeze will become established as we start to feel the influence of Maria moving northward off the coast. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 60s east of the Ridge with middle 50s to the west along with some cooler readings in the valleys. Highs Monday will be in the mid/upper 80s east, low/mid 80s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM EDT Sunday... Amplified pattern remains in place with 5h ridge centered from New England to the Gulf Coast States, while Hurricane Maria shifts north off the southeast coast, and a trough shifts into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Overall model still keep Maria off the coast with limited impacts over our area. Still mainly dry but could see a few isolated showers Tue-Wed in the afternoon. Noticable increase in winds in the east with 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph possible by Wednesday. Temperatures to stay above normal until after Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 133 PM EDT Sunday... Computer models and NHC take Maria east of NC/VA coastline Thursday as front moves across. Should be fairly dry with trend toward cooler temperatures this period as 5h trough digs across the area. Stronger shortwave with another front could trigger a few showers Saturday, but overall very low chance. After one more warm day Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 70s west, to mid 80s east, highs should return to normal Friday-Sunday with mid 60s to lower 70s west, mainly 70s east. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 645 PM EDT Sunday... No change in the ongoing quiet weather pattern with high pressure both surface and aloft in place. This will yield mainly VFR TAFs under some high cirrus clouds, with the exception being late night valley fog/stratus west of the Blue Ridge possibly producing a period of IFR cigs/vsbys at KLWB and KBCB tonight. However latest SREF/HREF solutions suggest that dry air may keep fog to a minimum again overnight so reduced coverage some, or left as a TEMPO mention late. Any fog/stratus dissipates early Monday morning with VFR through the end of the period. Winds will generally be light easterly overnight, followed by increasing speeds to 8-15 kts on Monday as we start to feel the influence of Hurricane Maria as it moves northward off the east coast. Extended Aviation Discussion... Overall persistence forecast early this week as strong high pressure aloft builds in from the northwest keeping tropical moisture offshore. VFR conditions should prevail in the daylight hours, along with late night/early morning IFR/LIFR radiation fog through Wednesday morning. An overall dry cold front crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday as Maria passes off the Outer Banks. These features likely to cause increasing northerly winds Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient between the two tightens on Wednesday, and then due to cold advection behind the front on Thursday. High pressure builds in with continued VFR under diminishing winds for the end of the week.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...JH/MBS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS

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