Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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000
FXUS61 KRNK 131033
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
633 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and unseasonably warm temperatures will cover the
region today. Thursday and Friday low pressure system will track
from the central United States to the Carolinas, resulting in
showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night. A strong cold
front will cross the area on Sunday leading to colder temperatures
and mountain rain and snow showers.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key message:
- Dry and unseasonably warm today and tonight
Surface high pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic and Southeast
today. Expecting good mixing which will lead to surface dew points
mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A short wave crossing east
out of the Tennessee Valley will bring some high clouds to the area
this morning. Similar to Tuesday, will have highs closer to warmest
guidance and 90th percentile NBM. Will stay close to NBM guidance
for the lows. Both the maximum temperature today and minimum
temperature tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1. Warm and dry Thursday, rain arrives Friday.
2. Temperatures trend cooler after Friday.
Thursday and Friday will likely see high temperatures in the upper
60s to upper 70s, with increasing 500mb heights over the region and
surface high pressure leading to mostly sunny skies. As this surface
high moves farther eastward through the end of the work week,
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system will bring
more moisture into the area from the Gulf, so expecting an increase
in dewpoints along with the warmer temperatures. Cloud cover will be
increasing through late Thursday night through Friday as clouds from
the front move into the area. This may help limit temperatures
Friday, but probabilities are still high (between 65% and 85%)
for maximum temperatures greater than 75 degrees in the Piedmont
and Southside Virginia.
The frontal system will bring the next round of rain to the area,
with showers beginning as early as Friday morning for the western
counties in the forecast area, expanding to the Piedmont by Friday
afternoon. Given the increasing dewpoints and modest instability,
there is a chance for thunderstorms in southeast West Virginia, and
in the Piedmont and Southside of Virginia as the front tracks
eastward through Friday. Downsloping due to the westerly winds will
keep rainfall coverage more scattered and rainfall amounts lighter
east of the Blue Ridge than west. Overall, rain showers will
diminish by Friday night into Saturday morning as the front moves
quickly to the east. Some showers may linger over the western
mountains Saturday morning, but that activity will come to an end by
Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, Saturday will be dry for most of the
area, but a few degrees cooler, although still above normal, thanks
to the cooler airmass that moves in behind the front.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1. Rain chances increase for Sunday.
2. Temperatures colder through the beginning of the week.
An upper trough will dig southward into the Great Lakes through
Sunday, as a shortwave tracks across a frontal boundary
situated along the southeastern US. The cold front associated
with the northern stream system will reach the central
Appalachians by late Sunday, and will bring the next chances for
rain to areas west of the Blue Ridge. Deterministic guidance
have some differences as to the showers for the area, but do
show agreement in that most of the deeper moisture will be over
the southeastern US, and also are hinting that showers with the
northern stream will stay farther north of the area. That being
said, confidence is increasing in limited rain shower coverage,
although there is still a slight chance.
Behind this frontal passage, a much colder airmass will move into
the area, which will drop overnight temperatures back to near
freezing east of the Blue Ridge, and below freezing in the west for
Monday and Tuesday night. High temperatures may only reach the mid
30s in the west and upper 40s to near 50 in the east on Tuesday.
With these colder temperatures and northwest upslope flow, may see
some upslope snow showers Monday into Tuesday for southeast West
Virginia.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...
VFR weather through the TAF forecast period.
Winds less than 5kt early this morning, under scattered cirrus.
Wind speeds will increase to the 5 to 10 knot range by late
morning. Scattered to broken cirrus will cross the area today.
Little cloud cover is expected tonight.
Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
High pressure with dry VFR conditions expected through Thursday.
A front will approach Friday and bring MVFR or lower conditions
along with showers and thunderstorms. MVFR clouds and showers
in the mountains may linger into Saturday morning. Otherwise
Saturday will be VFR east of the Blue Ridge.
On Sunday a strong front approaches bringing the chance of
precipitation and lower ceilings to the area for the beginning
on next week. The wind will be strong and gusty behind the
front.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...
Low humidity again this afternoon...
Dry conditions are expected through Thursday under high pressure.
Minimum RH this afternoon will be 20 to 25 percent through the
Roanoke Valley and east of the Blue Ridge. In the mountains the
minimum RH will be 25 to 35 percent.
High clouds this morning will give way to more sunshine this
afternoon. The shallow surface based inversion will break around
10 AM this morning with winds west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
The next chance of rain will come Friday and Friday night as a
front crosses the area. Rain is expected to begin Friday morning
in the mountains, but not reach the piedmont until Friday
afternoon.
Rainfall amounts 0.25 to 0.50 inches are likely in the
mountains. Around 0.10 of an inch is forecast for the piedmont.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
FIRE WEATHER...AMS