Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 131033 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 633 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and unseasonably warm temperatures will cover the region today. Thursday and Friday low pressure system will track from the central United States to the Carolinas, resulting in showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night. A strong cold front will cross the area on Sunday leading to colder temperatures and mountain rain and snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday... Key message: - Dry and unseasonably warm today and tonight Surface high pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic and Southeast today. Expecting good mixing which will lead to surface dew points mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s. A short wave crossing east out of the Tennessee Valley will bring some high clouds to the area this morning. Similar to Tuesday, will have highs closer to warmest guidance and 90th percentile NBM. Will stay close to NBM guidance for the lows. Both the maximum temperature today and minimum temperature tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Warm and dry Thursday, rain arrives Friday. 2. Temperatures trend cooler after Friday. Thursday and Friday will likely see high temperatures in the upper 60s to upper 70s, with increasing 500mb heights over the region and surface high pressure leading to mostly sunny skies. As this surface high moves farther eastward through the end of the work week, southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching frontal system will bring more moisture into the area from the Gulf, so expecting an increase in dewpoints along with the warmer temperatures. Cloud cover will be increasing through late Thursday night through Friday as clouds from the front move into the area. This may help limit temperatures Friday, but probabilities are still high (between 65% and 85%) for maximum temperatures greater than 75 degrees in the Piedmont and Southside Virginia. The frontal system will bring the next round of rain to the area, with showers beginning as early as Friday morning for the western counties in the forecast area, expanding to the Piedmont by Friday afternoon. Given the increasing dewpoints and modest instability, there is a chance for thunderstorms in southeast West Virginia, and in the Piedmont and Southside of Virginia as the front tracks eastward through Friday. Downsloping due to the westerly winds will keep rainfall coverage more scattered and rainfall amounts lighter east of the Blue Ridge than west. Overall, rain showers will diminish by Friday night into Saturday morning as the front moves quickly to the east. Some showers may linger over the western mountains Saturday morning, but that activity will come to an end by Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, Saturday will be dry for most of the area, but a few degrees cooler, although still above normal, thanks to the cooler airmass that moves in behind the front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Rain chances increase for Sunday. 2. Temperatures colder through the beginning of the week. An upper trough will dig southward into the Great Lakes through Sunday, as a shortwave tracks across a frontal boundary situated along the southeastern US. The cold front associated with the northern stream system will reach the central Appalachians by late Sunday, and will bring the next chances for rain to areas west of the Blue Ridge. Deterministic guidance have some differences as to the showers for the area, but do show agreement in that most of the deeper moisture will be over the southeastern US, and also are hinting that showers with the northern stream will stay farther north of the area. That being said, confidence is increasing in limited rain shower coverage, although there is still a slight chance. Behind this frontal passage, a much colder airmass will move into the area, which will drop overnight temperatures back to near freezing east of the Blue Ridge, and below freezing in the west for Monday and Tuesday night. High temperatures may only reach the mid 30s in the west and upper 40s to near 50 in the east on Tuesday. With these colder temperatures and northwest upslope flow, may see some upslope snow showers Monday into Tuesday for southeast West Virginia. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday... VFR weather through the TAF forecast period. Winds less than 5kt early this morning, under scattered cirrus. Wind speeds will increase to the 5 to 10 knot range by late morning. Scattered to broken cirrus will cross the area today. Little cloud cover is expected tonight. Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure with dry VFR conditions expected through Thursday. A front will approach Friday and bring MVFR or lower conditions along with showers and thunderstorms. MVFR clouds and showers in the mountains may linger into Saturday morning. Otherwise Saturday will be VFR east of the Blue Ridge. On Sunday a strong front approaches bringing the chance of precipitation and lower ceilings to the area for the beginning on next week. The wind will be strong and gusty behind the front.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday... Low humidity again this afternoon... Dry conditions are expected through Thursday under high pressure. Minimum RH this afternoon will be 20 to 25 percent through the Roanoke Valley and east of the Blue Ridge. In the mountains the minimum RH will be 25 to 35 percent. High clouds this morning will give way to more sunshine this afternoon. The shallow surface based inversion will break around 10 AM this morning with winds west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph. The next chance of rain will come Friday and Friday night as a front crosses the area. Rain is expected to begin Friday morning in the mountains, but not reach the piedmont until Friday afternoon. Rainfall amounts 0.25 to 0.50 inches are likely in the mountains. Around 0.10 of an inch is forecast for the piedmont.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...AMS/NF FIRE WEATHER...AMS

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