Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 262050 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 350 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW WORKWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS EVENING/...
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AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY... RADAR SHOWS JUST SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF VA WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE PICS SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING OUT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIDGE. BELIEVE THINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DROPPED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY... AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO ADVSY CRITERIA. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION. EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1255 PM EST WEDNESDAY... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST KEEPS LOW CIGS AND VSBYS IN PLACE. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY IMPROVING A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION ALSO STARTING TO CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR SITES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3KFT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY A WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z WED FOR BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY... VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...RCS EQUIPMENT...AMS

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