Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 251923 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 323 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL...AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH LOSE OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...LEADING TO PATCHY FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. A SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY...ANY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE OUTER RINGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSSIBLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE...SUNDAY`S AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WITH A WARM START AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 303 PM EDT SATURDAY... ZEROING IN ON POSSIBLE DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF MONDAY. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE PRECIP FIELDS...BUT THINK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL BE ONLY CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. BY MONDAY WHILE WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS LEADING TO MORE CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN HITTING THE MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL BROADBRUSH THREAT CWA WIDE...THOUGH THINK THE CHANCE IS GOING TO BE 40/50 AROUND AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER THREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK NORTHEAST. THERE COULD SOME ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA/NW NC MAYBE HAVING 30ISH CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING...ESPECIALLY LOWS AS HEIGHTS BUILD. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 EAST. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST...BUT THE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE MORNING. HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 238 PM EDT SATURDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGE STICKS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BUT WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AREA SINKS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS WERE KEEPING THREAT OF SFC WAVES COMING UP THE FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST COAST FRI-SAT THOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE REGARDING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH CONSENSUS KEEPING MORE AN INLAND LOW WITH FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF STORMS IN THE THU NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH FRONT SLOWING UP OVER THE COAST BY SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP AT LEAST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SATURDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY. TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY DROP A LITTLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY IF THE FRONT MOVES FAR SOUTHEAST. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 120 PM EDT SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS DRY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND BELOW 6500 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL NOT LAST LONG THIS EVENING AND WILL FADE WITH LOSE OF HEATING. WITH CONVECTION ACTIVITY BEING ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 18Z TAFS. HOWEVER...THEY MAY DISRUPT FLIGHT PATHS FOR THOSE TRAVELING PARALLEL TO THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME HI-RES MODELS SHOWING BLUE RIDGE CONVECTION DRIFTING EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HIGH-END MVFR/LOW-END VFR CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND THIS EVENING. AREAS THAT CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WILL SEE PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY. OUTSIDE MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MAINLY VALLEY FOG...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE-WED...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THU/FRI WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A POTENTIAL DEEP FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...RCS

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