Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 161110 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 710 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the region this weekend into early next week resulting in mainly dry and continued mild weather over the next few days. Jose should track north, well off the east coast Monday and Tuesday, before sliding just east of New England on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Swath of strato-cu remains slow to exit/erode across eastern sections early this morning as it remains trapped beneath the subsidence inversion seen off evening soundings. Latest guidance shows this canopy as well as western valley fog finally eroding with boundary layer warming by mid morning if not sooner. Otherwise looks to be another warm day for mid September with broad upper ridging building overhead and 850 mb temps around +15C. However a leftover weakness, the remnants of Irma, will linger over the mountains where models show some faint low level afternoon convergence under overall dry air aloft. Best elongated energy aloft looks to remain across northern sections where ensembles show enough lift to perhaps pop isolated shallow showers under the inversion despite only weak instability. Since this remains low confidence given such weak support, will keep 20ish pops going with best coverage near I-64 and more shotgun nature elsewhere along the Blue Ridge. Elsewhere should see more sun with overall intervals of sun/clouds west. Highs rather warm out east where should top into the low 80s with mid/upper 70s mountains under light winds. Overall tonight appears like a repeat of early this morning with some trapped clouds under the inversion aloft and patchy/areas of fog late. Looks like any evening showers mainly far north closer to the stretched out remnant mid level troffiness before fading with loss of heating under weak surface high pressure. Lows likely to be a bit more on the muggy side with readings staying mostly in the 60- 65 range east and 50s west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Overall synoptic pattern will remain unchanged with a western trof being reinforced by energy entering into the Pacific northwest and a warm ridge riding high over the eastern US. This will keep warm air aloft and prevent lapse rates from steepening, resulting in lackluster convective potential. Thus, expect orographic forcing to result in isolated showers along and west of the Blue Ridge Sunday. On Monday as hurricane Jose moves north off the eastern seaboard, the circulation around the storm will start to generate a northeast flow across the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic which will enhance low level convergence, keeping a chance of showers across the region to start the workweek. As Jose pulls away on Tuesday, winds will become northwest and allow some short wave energy upstream to approach and keep a slight chance for showers in the forecast generally from the Blue Ridge westward. With no fronts moving through to change the airmass, expect little change in temperatures for the next several days. Expect highs generally in the low to mid 80s east of the Blue Ridge with mid to upper 70s west. Lows will be int he low to mid 60s east to middle and upper 50s west with cooler readings in the valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Friday... Our area will have a chance for showers Wednesday afternoon as an upper level ridge continues to send weak impulses over the region. The GFS then has high pressure moving in behind Jose and wedging south into the Carolinas by the weekend. The ECM keeps the area dry Wednesday as Jose continues to keep subsidence over the region. The ECM, moreso the 00Z than the 12Z, then has Jose doing a loop off the northeast coast Thursday and inland into New York next weekend. With a high degree of uncertainty, we will keep PoPs low through the period. Likewise on temperatures forecast, keeping near seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 715 AM EDT Saturday... Fog/stratus will again lead to a continued period of IFR/LIFR across the valley sites early this morning before moisture fades with heating resulting in a return to widespread VFR across the region from mid morning onward. Otherwise axis of VFR strato- cumulus should finally exit eastern/northern sites as well early this morning with scattered to broken VFR cumulus fields developing by afternoon. Isolated shallow based convection could also occur across the mountains espcly northern half with heating this afternoon but way too iffy to include any mention for now. Surface winds through the period will remain overall light and variable during the day to mainly calm overnight. Should see VFR linger into this evening with just some mid clouds mountains and perhaps high clouds east overnight. Similar to this morning, expecting another round of fog espcly in the valleys where locations such as KLWB/KBCB likely to drop into IFR/LIFR levels within fog/stratus late. A period of MVFR to IFR also could occur across eastern sections with less likely at KBLF overnight and little around KROA. Extended Aviation Discussion... The chance of precipitation remains low for Sunday as expect fog/stratus to again give way to mainly VFR by mid morning. Monday there will be enough low level convergence for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday may feature some isolated MVFR showers in the mountains. Otherwise expecting good flying conditions through the middle of next week outside of early morning fog, as ridging remains anchored between Jose offshore, and the next upstream cold front that looks to fade upon arrival next week.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/RCS AVIATION...AL/AMS/JH

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