Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 261703 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1203 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL PASS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY BRINGING AN END TO MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1155 AM EST THURSDAY... THE AREA CURRENTLY UNDER CLOUDS SKIES THAT HAVE STARTED TO BECOME MORE THIN...AND THUS A BIT OF FILTERED SUNSHINE IS COMING THROUGH. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PIEDMONT. HAVE NOT MADE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HIGHS...BUT DID ADJUST UPWARD MOST AREAS BY AROUND TWO DEGREES BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TRENDS AND 15Z LAV MOS GUIDANCE. WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND HELP INITIATE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON WHERE MELTING OF SNOW IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO BE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TO NIGHT TO ADDRESS A REFREEZE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE. THAT DECISION WILL COME CLOSER TO THE RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. AS OF 850 AM EST THURSDAY.. THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW LAST NIGHT HAS EXITED THE REGION AND IS NOW SKIRTING THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. NO ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...AND THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED. THIS AFTERNOON...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN GREENBRIER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. AS OF 635 AM EST THURSDAY... QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE WEST GIVEN CURRENT DECREASING TREND IN SNOWFALL. WILL REPLACE WITH AN ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AND SLICK ROADS. ALSO LOWERED ADDED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OUT EAST AND LESS ELSEWHERE. THINK CAN LIKELY DOWNGRADE THE EASTERN WARNING BY MID MORNING AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 230 AM EST THURSDAY... SURFACE LOW OFF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WILL ZIP QUICKLY NE EXITING OFF THE OUTER BANKS AFTER 12Z BRINGING MOST ACCUMULATING DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE DRY SLOT SEEN ON SATELLITE PICS FINALLY WINS OUT. HOWEVER WITH SNOW ONGOING WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEADLINES AND ONLY ADJUST AMOUNTS A WHILE LONGER AS THINK CAN PERHAPS DROP MOST AROUND 9 AM TO ALLOW WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO RUN THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. ONCE THE WAVE EXITS AND DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES OFFSHORE...WEAK NW FLOW TO ENSUE BY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE/CLIPPER THAT WILL PUSH EAST UNDER THE UPSTREAM 5H TROUGH. AFTER A BREAK IN RESIDUAL POPS OUT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER AXIS OF UPSLOPE AIDED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY SPOTTY NATURE POPS UNTIL PERHAPS THE WAVE AXIS CROSSES THIS EVENING WHEN WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS...WITH LOW POPS EVEN OUT TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST LOCAL RNK-WRF EVEN TAKES SOME OF THESE PATCHY SNOW SHOWERS OUT EAST BUT GIVEN ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE OFF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WILL HOLD MOST POPS WESTERN THIRD LATER TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE IN. OTRW A RATHER CLOUDY...DAMP AND CHILLY PERIOD INTO TONIGHT WITH ANY SUN PRODUCING A BUMP IN HIGHS TODAY GIVEN DEEP COLD AIR STILL WEST AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION. STILL APPEARS HIGHS MOSTLY 30S TODAY UNDER LIMITED SUNSHINE WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS OVERNIGHT UNDER CLOUDS...SUPPORTING LOWS MOSTLY TEENS FAR WEST AND 20S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY... COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND THEN WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING US QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION AS THE WEDGE BUILDS IN...THEN LINGERS SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE WEDGE THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THIS BUT BELIEVE IT IS WORTH SLGT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GIVE US ICE IN THE CLOUD SO EXPECT JUST SOME FLURRIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST AND OUR WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION APPEARS TO HOLD OFF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WAIT ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO SEE HOW THE COLD AIR WEDGE WILL BEHAVE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BRING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. IF THE WEDGE HOLDS FAST THIS WILL INTRODUCE PTYPE ISSUES SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 315 PM EST WEDNESDAY... LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOLD BELOW FREEZING. AT THIS POINT...ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MODEST AS WINDS SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ESTABLISHED TO START THE DAY MONDAY... AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN WELL OVER A WEEK...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS OUR AREA... SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WEDGING AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...AND PUSHES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE COMBINED WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE AS PROVIDED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WOULD MAKE FOR A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FROM THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SNOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TAPERING OFF BY MID MORNING. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS TO INIT WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS...SO NOT GOING ANYTHING HIGHER THAN MVFR AND COULD FLOP BACK INTO IFR AT TIMES WITH STRATUS/FOG AROUND OVERTOP THE SNOW COVER. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MAY CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY RETURNING THE WESTERN AREAS TO MVFR IN SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MAY COMBINE WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO SPILL SOME MVFR CIGS INTO THE AREA INCLUDING SOME SPOTTY RAIN INTO THE MOUNTAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE RESIDUAL WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...DS/JH SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/NF AVIATION...DS/JH/WP

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