Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 211751 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1005 AM EDT THURSDAY... SURFACE LOW IS JUST ABOUT DUE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN IS FOUND NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH INTO NC. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD IT WILL TAKE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. BREAKS OF SUN TOT HE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO COOK UP SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL SKIRT THE NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE VA JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELUCTANT TO RISE MUCH WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT AREAS IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE NC/VA LINE WILL OVERNIGHT LOOKS CALM AND PLEASANT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY... WILL START FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN. NORTHWEST WINDFLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES... OCCASIONALLY REACHING 25 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO THE LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...AND MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO PUSH ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE...THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE CENTRAL OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY... SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN A WARMING TREND...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...HOWEVER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL...AND DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WORDING INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENING OUT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP US IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND OPEN THE PATTERN UP TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WHILE THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FOR WEDNESDAY SO WE LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST... AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 150 PM EDT THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST AND IS QUICKLY TAKING ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THERE IS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EXTENDING UPSTREAM BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL STAY IN LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE INTO THE EVENING...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE STEADILY IMPROVE. EXPECT IFR TO BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT AT KBLF/KLWB WITH MVFR AT KBCB. KROA/KLYH/KDAN SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING WITH A WET ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR STRATUS/FOG REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. HEATING TOMORROW WILL MIX OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING AND ESTABLISH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. EXPECT NW FLOW TO BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY EARLY AT KROA AND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF NEAR TERM...MBS/NF SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...MBS/PC

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