Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRNK 310225 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1025 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT...STALLING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1020 PM EDT THURSDAY... DRIER AIR WILL BE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN TO THE EAST AND KEEPS THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE PIEDMONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER AIR MAY RESULTS IN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE RIVERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE HIGH CENTER WILL BRING WITH IT DRIER AIR...PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM EDT THURSDAY... A QUIET AND RATHER COMFORTABLE PERIOD LOOKS IN STORE UNDER BROAD UPPER TROFFINESS ENHANCED VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND CLEAR/PLEASANT NIGHTS GIVEN DRIER DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTIONS COULD BE WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NW UNDER SLIGHTLY BETTER UPSLOPE LATE SATURDAY...AND THEN PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF SUNDAY EVENING WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER GIVEN PROGGED DRYNESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED NATURE TO ANY SHOWERS OPTING TO LEAVE OUT ANY POPS OR SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPE/HEATING OF DRY AIR ALLOWING HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 85-90 RANGE EAST...AND MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S MOUNTAINS DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS. BETTER IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR TO BE FELT DURING THE OVERNIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S VALLEYS AND LOW/MID 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE 85H TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE ABOUT OVERHEAD POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW 40S IN THE DEEPEST NW VALLEYS PENDING ANY RIVER FOG LATE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY... MEAN 5H TROUGH TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH STEADY NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN OVERALL PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TOLERANT HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS 80S TO LOWER 90S. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO LIKELY LIMITED PENDING PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE COOL SURGE LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH LINGERING MOISTURE WITH THE RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD BE LIFTED BACK NORTH BY APPROACH OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH MONDAY...AND ALONG A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING FROM THE NW TUESDAY...BUT LOW POPS AT BEST BOTH DAYS. UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL DEEPEN AGAIN BY MIDWEEK AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AND SLIDES AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SLOWER/WEAKER WHILE MAINTAINING MORE CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER/SLOWER SCENARIO BUT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS IN DRIVING THE COOL ADVECTION IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SINCE IT HAS BEEN BEST OF LATE. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. RADAR SHOWED A STORM UPSTREAM OF KDAN AND AT CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION...THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND 01Z. NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OTHER LOCAL TAF SITES...WHICH WERE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN TONIGHT AND SURFACE DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...THE FOG THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LWB/BCB COULD FOG IN GIVEN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER THE NEW AND GREENBRIER RIVERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AND VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK NEAR TERM...AMS/KK SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...AMS/KK

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.