National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRNK 140534
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
134 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 905 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DEEP CONVECTION NOW WELL TO THE SE WITH JUST A FEW RESIDUAL SHRA
BANDS OVER THE WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE DEWPOINT FRONT CROSSING THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. EVENING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DRYING ONGOING
ALOFT SO THINKING THAT MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PUSH SE AND
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. OTRW ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR WILL REALLY
KICK INTO GEAR OVERNIGHT WITH 85H TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO NEAR 8C
OVER THE FAR NW BY DAYBREAK. THIS COMBINED WITH NW FLOW MAY KEEP
SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NW INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TRAJECTORIES TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND HELP TO ERODE ANY LEFTOVER
CLOUDS LATE. THUS LEFT IN ISOLATED POPS WEST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE CUTTING OUT CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART.
BUMPED DOWN LOWS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND LATEST LAV
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

BUSY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A MEMORY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED.
ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS OF
WV/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN. HAVE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE IN THE MTNS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY FOR THE MTNS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE INCREASING
HUMIDITY AND PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A FRONT. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT MON-TUE WILL HAVE THE BETTER
THREAT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF US BY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STAY HUNG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT
THAT SOME OF OUR SRN CWA COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WED OR
THU...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW LEFT IT MAINLY DRY. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
BECOME MORE NORMAL POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING
SOME BY WED NIGHT-THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AT ROA/BCB/LWB/BLF AND THE
WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH OF A SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT THAT FOG FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY. HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE
KLWB TAF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN VFR
WEATHER. SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING THEN WINDS DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING... KLWB/KBCB...OTHERWISE VFR. THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AHEAD/ALONG AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH