Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 301954 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 354 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY... FOG WILL AGAIN FORM TONIGHT IN LOCATION THAT HAD RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES AS LONG AS THERE IS SOME PROLONGED CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...NOT MUCH OTHER LIFT OR SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OR EXPANDED COVERAGE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT PROGRESS TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING BY DAWN MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HELP MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE. WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...DELAYING ITS ARRIVAL INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHILE STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADD INSTABILITY TO THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TRULY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...MORE SO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC... HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AS THE HIGH WEDGES AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK...MAINTAINING AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHING ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN...DO NOT SEE THE COLD FRONT SINKING VERY FAR AWAY FROM OUR AREA...PERHAPS STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS SUCH... WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS OUR AREA...WILL BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF INTERSTATE 77...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...SO BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT WITH PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WILL HAVE WATCH FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AREAWIDE. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY... NWS RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOP AT THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WEST OF A LINE FROM BUENA VISTA VIRGINIA TO ROANOKE TO TAZEWELL VIRGINIA. KLWB HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HAVE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 00Z TODAY BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADD TSRA OR VCTS IN FOR THE KROA AND KBCB TAFS DEPENDING ON SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS. ONCE THE SUN SET THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT. AIRPORT THAT GET RAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALSO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HAVING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING FOG WILL BE SHALLOW AND WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL TURN SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. NO OTHER UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN STORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z-18Z/NOON-2PM BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THAT TIME FRAME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THE SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF PERIODIC SUB-VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPCLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD FINALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ESPCLY BLUE RIDGE EAST...WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY SINKS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY...AND IN FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. LOWER MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND WEDGING IN PLACE RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...AMS/JH/WERT

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