Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 261734 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 134 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will linger over the area today. An upper trough and associated cold front will move through the area Tuesday. A large area of high pressure will build over the area behind the front for Wednesday, then move east of the area Thursday through Friday. Mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday with warmer, more humid conditions and returning chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected during the later half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1255 PM EDT Monday... The early afternoon forecast update will reflect only limited changes to the overall general trend for the forecast. Have increased cloud cover across the region per latest satellite depiction across the region. This includes mid to high level clouds in association with a jet streak, and diurnal cumulus due to diurnal and differential heating across the mountains. Forecast high temperatures have not been adjusted by more than plus or minus or or two degrees from the previous forecast. As of 955 AM EDT Monday... The update this morning will reflect primarily minor cosmetic changes to the hourly temperature, dew point, wind, and sky cover forecast grids to reflect the latest observations and expected trends into the early afternoon. No significant changes to the overall forecast for the day is being made. As of 400 AM EDT Monday... Little change expected in the weather across the region today from what was observed on Sunday. 850mb temperatures will change little from around +8C on the northern end of the CWA to around +12C in the southern areas. Broad troughing, anchored across the Great Lakes will continue leaving the area with below normal heights and temperatures as noted above. With the air mass fairly dry, only expecting scattered CU development today with limited cirrus. Slightly breezy west to northwest winds, but otherwise an extremely pleasant day for late June with high temperatures mostly in the 70s west to the lower and mid 80s east after a cool morning with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Not really very June like, but nice! Overnight into early Tuesday, a stronger short wave embedded within the Great Lakes upper trough will move toward the region, then is slated to sweep through the area Tuesday. Mid clouds will be on the increase overnight in advance of this feature. Not very excited about precipitation with this system, especially prior to 12Z given the limited moisture it has to work with, e.g., PWATS less than 1 inch. However, dynamics may be strong enough to overcome the lack of deep moisture and some light rain showers or more likely sprinkles may begin to develop across eastern KY/TN/WV before daybreak Tuesday, so have introduced some slight chance pops into the Richlands/Bluefield/Independence areas before daybreak Tue. Low temperatures overnight might be a tad warmer in the west than this morning thanks to increased cloud cover, but will still be below normal for late June, mostly in the 50s across the CWA. Radiational cooling will be more effective across the Piedmont Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Monday... An upper level trough will pivot over the Ohio and Mid Atlantic region Tuesday. Short waves coming across the area will use all available moisture to produce scattered showers through the day. The best coverage will be across the mountains in the morning. Models are wanting to push these showers east of the Blue Ridge, however with a northwest transport wind of 15 to 25 mph and cloud bases at or above 7 kft, sprinkles may be the best bet in the early afternoon. Drier air moves in quickly as high pressure builds in from the west to end the threat for rain Tuesday evening. With abundant cloud cover and rain in northwest flow, Tuesday`s temperatures may run 10F cooler than normal. Cool dry high pressure will drift over the region Wednesday. With plenty of sunshine and a dry air mass, afternoon temperatures will warm into the 70s across the mountains to the lower 80s east of the Blue Ridge. This high will slide off the VA/NC coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Southerly flow on the back side of this ridge will bring temperatures back to seasonal levels. Dew points will also return back to the 60s by Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Trough lifts out and 5h ridge works in ahead of the next upstream trough over the northern tier of the U.S. Will see return flow around southeast high with temps/dewpoints returning to typical late June/early July numbers. Also with differential heating and some weak upper impulse should expect to see more storms Friday-and as front across the midwest edges closer to the Ohio Valley, should see a better chance into the weekend especially over the mountains. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Monday... Confidence is high in anticipating VFR conditions for the extent of the 18Z/2PM TAF forecast thanks to high pressure across the region. Likewise, the wind forecast also has high confidence of a general west to northwest flow across the area with most sustained winds just shy of 10kts across the mountains this afternoon with some gusts approaching 20kts. Across the piedmont, light west to northwest or calm winds are forecast. Overnight most area will experience calm or light and variable winds. Tomorrow morning, the winds will remain light and variable or calm across the Piedmont with west to northwest winds increasing to just shy of 10kts by mid-day across the mountains. Extended Aviation Discussion... Weak disturbance crosses the area Tuesday afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly the mountains. VFR conditions expected outside any heavier showers or storms. Isolated IFR/MVFR fog late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning in areas that received rain during the day Tuesday. High pressure will keep the bulk of the area VFR through Thursday. Friday into Saturday, the potential for sub-VFR conditions increase as showers and storms become more numerous. Likewise, an increase in the boundary layer moisture will also lend itself to better chances of late night/early morning patchy fog. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB NEAR TERM...DS/RAB SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS/WP AVIATION...DS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.