Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 261124 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 724 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NE PA/SE NY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT FAST...SO NOT REALLY SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH ENOUGH CONVERGENCE IN THE NC MTNS FOR ISOLATED THREAT TIL 7 AM. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF THE WINDS...SO EXPECT WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH. NOT SEEING ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION SO HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 70S PIEDMONT. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH WINDS SUBSIDING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...TO MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON TO BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW TO THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WARM SPELL IN TACT...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...UPPER 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATION. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS GULF AIR POOLS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FALLS OFF QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WITH ONLY MODEST ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...BELIEVE MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT A WINDOW OF ONLY A COUPLE HOURS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY... MORE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND A UPPER COLD POOL ACROSS THE LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY DEEP 5H TROUGH PER A FORECAST CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM HEADING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. STILL SOME EARLIER MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EC WANTING TO CLOSE THIS OFF OVER THE REGION WHILE CONSENSUS FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE/ NORTHWARD SCENARIO. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO THE SE AND SHALLOW COLD POOL PRECIP TO THE NW. HOWEVER DEEPENING NW FLOW AND PASSAGE OF THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS...LIKELY TO SWING UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO GEAR SATURDAY...WHEN WELL BELOW 0C 85H AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON STRONG NW FLOW PERHAPS MAKING FOR THE COOLEST DAY SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE A DAILY TAPERING OF TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S TO AROUND 60 BY FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS ONLY 40S WEST TO 50S EAST SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO DIP BELOW FREEZING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY... STRATOCU IN THE MTNS WILL CLEAR OUT SOON. MIXING WILL COMMENCE AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 22Z. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN ALL TAF PARAMETERS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWER RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. VFR TO RETURN TO ALL SITES THURSDAY.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY... WNW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE HUMIDITY TUMBLES INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST WEEK WHERE 10 HOUR FUELS HAVE DROPPED TO 7-8 PERCENT. DUE TO THIS FACT...AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...JH/NF AVIATION...WP FIRE WEATHER...RCS/WP

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