Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 170112 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 912 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will take up residency along the southeast coast of the United States through at least Thursday and provide mild and dry conditions to our region. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night into Friday along with its associated showers. Gusty winds are expected behind the front Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Sunday... A ridge of high pressure was centered along a line extending from near the coast of GA/SC, northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. An upper ridge was stacked above the surface high. A shortwave trough was moving eastward through the Hudson Bay region of Canada. An associated cold front extedned from just north of Vermont, southwest into Lower Michigan, and farther south into southern Illinois. The Pacific Northwest continues to be active with a an upper low stalled off the coast, with a series of shortwave troughs spiraling onshore. As we head through the next 24 hours, the southeast Canadian shortwave trough will head eastward. Its associated cold front is expected to make some progress south towards the Mason-Dixon line before stalling, and not having an impact on our weather. The ridge axis along, or just east of the coastline, will fold over in response to the passing shortwave trough and take on more of a west-east orientation by this time Monday. This will allow a trend towards more of a southwest flow across at least western portions of the area. Anticipate a trend towards milder temperatures and higher dew points. Tonight, expect another round of late night and early morning fog within primarily the river and mountain valley regions. Low temperatures will range from the low to mid 50s tonight. Highs on Monday will range from the low to mid 70s across the mountains and the upper 70s to near 80 across the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1245 PM EDT Sunday... Tranquil weather will persist into the middle part of this week as high pressure remains in control off the North Carolina coast. Upper level ridging continues to be portrayed in the models over the Southeast. Combined with increasing southwest flow at the surface, this situation should bring warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico toward the Mid Atlantic. High temperatures will break into the 80s in the Piedmont, while areas west of the Blue Ridge will easily reach the 70s. See the climate section below for record highs that could be in jeopardy during this timeframe. Lows will be elevated as well due to increasing moisture pushing dewpoints into the mid 50s to the mid 60s. As this week progresses, warm air advection and increasing low-level moisture may allow more favorable conditions for patchy dense fog to develop during the early morning hours. Otherwise, dry weather should prevail with mostly sunny skies expected throughout this forecast period. A cold front should develop along the Ohio River Valley toward late Wednesday, but the models project it to not reach the Appalachian Mountains until later in the week. Details on the impending frontal passage and its effects are discussed in the following long term section. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1245 PM EDT Sunday... Thursday begins with an organizing upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a cold front approaching the Appalachian Mountains. The latest 12Z GFS has come into better agreement with the previous ECMWF solutions regarding the timing of the frontal passage. Both models depict the chance of showers starting Thursday afternoon west of I-81 and spreading eastward by Thursday night. However, rainfall amounts continue to trend lower with the latest runs showing QPF about a half an inch or less. Overall, the models favor a frontal passage during Thursday night into Friday with the best chance of showers advertised along and west of the Blue Ridge. Afterward, the 12Z GFS still tries to develop a blocky pattern by cutting off the upper level trough along the Southeast coast toward Friday night, but the progressive ECMWF pattern that portrays the cold front heading offshore by Friday night continues to be favored more among the ensemble models. Therefore, chances of showers have been nudged downward for Saturday, but some lingering upslope showers remain possible in southeast West Virginia. Cooler northwest flow behind the front will send low temperatures dipping into the 40s, while highs will only reach the 50s and 60s. Dry conditions return by Sunday and should continue into next week with high pressure overhead. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 740 PM EDT Sunday... With high pressure across the region, VFR conditions are expected through 06Z/2AM Monday. High confidence of another late night/early morning of river and mountains valley BR/FG development and accompanying LIFR/IFR ceilings in the same general vicinity. Any sub-VFR conditions will improve to VFR by 14Z/10AM across most locations. Winds will generally be light and variable to calm overnight, the out of the southwest on Monday. Extended aviation discussion... Through Thursday morning, VFR conditions are expected during the daylight hours, with redevelopment overnight of river and mountain valley fog and associated IFR to LIFR stratus layers/ceilings. Fog will be more widespread each night as the week progresses due to rising surface dew points and increasing low level moisture. A cold front is expected to move through the region Thursday night into early Friday. Expect the initial onset of scattered showers across western sections by Thursday afternoon. A southwest to northwest wind shift is expected to occur Thursday night across the region with gusty winds behind the front continuing into Friday. Areas of sub-VFR conditions will likely accompany the front and precipitation associated with it.
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&& .CLIMATE... As of 515 PM EDT Saturday... Record maximum temperatures through Thursday, Oct 20. Oct 16 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1989 Danville......89 in 1985 Lynchburg.....89 in 1897 Roanoke.......85 in 1930 Blacksburg....80 in 1992 Oct 17 Location Record Max Bluefield.....78 in 2000 Danville......88 in 1989 Lynchburg.....88 in 1908 Roanoke.......86 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1989 Oct 18 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 2007 Danville......86 in 2007 Lynchburg.....91 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1953 Oct 19 Location Record Max Bluefield.....81 in 1984 Danville......85 in 1953 Lynchburg.....88 in 1938 Roanoke.......91 in 1938 Blacksburg....80 in 1991 Oct 20 Location Record Max Bluefield.....79 in 1993 Danville......88 in 1984 Lynchburg.....85 in 1993 Roanoke.......84 in 2005 Blacksburg....82 in 1985 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...AMS/DS CLIMATE...AMS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.