Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271957 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 357 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK STATE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY... BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE... BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...DOMINATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...DRY NE-E FLOW WILL CONTINUE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...A REPEAT OCCURRENCE OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS WEATHER HAZARD...NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SHOULD EASILY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHLAND VALLEYS OF VA/WV. DEEPER MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH SUNDAY...THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND GIVING WAY TO INFLUENCE FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST. NORTHWARD DRIFT OF MOISTURE SUNDAY WILL COME IN THE FORM OF HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FIRST...FOLLOWED BY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY...AND MORE SO FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80 IN THE PIEDMONT OF VA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY... MODELS HAVE SIMILAR SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER ON TRACK OF SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE BEING EJECTED OUT OF A GULF DISTURBANCE. THE TRACK OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING INSITU WEDGE WILL DETERMINE IF EVERYONE HAS RAIN OR NOT AND AMOUNT DURING THIS EVENT. THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE...NORTH OF THE GULF DISTURBANCE BUT PRIMARILY BEING GUIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS (MONDAY EVENING) ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA (TUESDAY) THEN OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST (TUESDAY NIGHT). MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTH...POSSIBLE UP TO 3-4 INCHES IF TRACK IS FARTHER NORTH. NORTH OF THE BORDER...UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BUT MORE LIKELY A QUARTER OF AN INCH /0.25/. ALSO IN PLAY WILL BE AN INSITU WEDGE THAT COULD REDUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH WITH DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED IN...WHILE ENHANCING RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH AND ALONG EASTERN SLOPES WITH EASTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES ALONG WITH THE MODELS AND WPC. WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OF LATE...THESE 24-36 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 60F-70F ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER TO 65F-75F TO THE NORTH. START TIME OF RAIN AND DURATION MAY RESULT IN COLDER TEMPERATURES SOUTH...POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE EAST MAY HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING AND/OR NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING IN COOLER AIR. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE GULF DISTURBANCE AND SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL REMAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT EASTERLY FLOW COULD PRODUCE DRIZZLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ADVANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL TRACK EAST AND EXIT THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE COOL WEDGE LINGERS. THE WEDGE ERODES SOME FRIDAY...BUT IT MAY TAKE THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT TO COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 18Z - 04Z...WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR BR/FG DEVELOPING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...IMPACTING KBCB/KLWB AFTER 04Z SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z/10AM WITH A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING MVFR-IFR CIGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION MON-WED. THERE IS ALSO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO PERSIST OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...PROMOTING CONTINUATION OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS...FOG...AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT UNTIL THAT TAKES PLACE...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIRLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...PM

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